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Count on the timing of the Covid vaccine is exaggerating. Word of experts and the EU Commission

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Count on the timing of the Covid vaccine is exaggerating. Word of experts and the EU Commission

What Conte said about the anti Covid vaccine by the end of the year and what the EU Commission and experts Ricciardi, Viola and Cartabellotta support instead

198 vaccine candidates, over 40 those in phase 3, or close to the finish line, according to WHO data . Among the vaccines that seem to be in the pipeline is that of Astrazeneca, developed by the University of Oxford, in collaboration with the Italian Irbm, but also accelerating the Chinese, the Americans of Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson, the French of Sanofi and the Germans of BionTech.

The antidote against Covid-19, therefore, seems to be getting closer and closer, but the uncertainty about the timing is still great. And while Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte promises the first doses by the end of the year, insiders and experts deny it. The vaccination campaign, they argue, will not start before 2021. Let's go step by step.

THE WORDS OF GIUSEPPE CONTE

Let's start with Conte's words. "If the last stages of preparation of the Oxford-Pomezia vaccine (produced by Astrazeneca, ed ) are completed in the coming weeks, the first doses will be available in early December", said the prime minister , interviewed for the latest book. by Bruno Vespa.

“Already at the beginning we will have the first two or three million doses – Conte specified – other millions will arrive soon after. The European Commission has commissioned Astrazeneca and other companies for several hundred million doses. I think that in order to completely contain the pandemic we will have to wait until next spring anyway ”.

CONTE: THE EU AGREEMENTS PROVIDE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST DOSES BY 2020

Also during the presentation of the new Dpcm on October 24, Conte spoke about the vaccine against Covid-19 by the end of the year: "I remember that the European Commission has entered into various contracts that provide for the arrival of the first doses of the vaccine in December", he said With you.

THE COMMISSION REJECTS

But to distance itself from the promises of the head of the government is the European Commission which, when asked by La Stampa , commented: “As regards the timing, at this stage we cannot make any statements. The actual spread of a safe and effective vaccine against Covid, in line with the EU strategy, depends on the progress made by developers. Furthermore, any vaccine candidate must receive a marketing authorization following a positive evaluation by the European Medicines Agency ”.

DI LORENZO (IRBM): FIRST DOSES POSSIBLE BY YEAR END

In support of Giuseppe Conte's thesis, the words of Piero Di Lorenzo, president of Irbm of Pomezia, who hosted Omnibus , La7 program, said: "Thanks to the economic and organizational strength of the leader of the project, the multinational Astrazeneca, we have already started producing the vaccine for months ”.

“Minister Speranza has been active and effective in joining the EU leading group to book vaccines. If all goes well, it is reasonable to expect that the first doses of vaccine, 2-3 million, will arrive in Italy by the end of the year ”, adds Di Lorenzo, subscribing to the words of Giuseppe Conte; on the other hand, the number one of Irbm financed by Unicredit which is trying spasmodically to let the State enter the project directly or indirectly , as he also mentioned this morning on TV.

DI LORENZO: BY JUNE 2021 ALL VACCINATED

“The contract between Astrazeneca and the EU provides for the delivery of 300 million doses by June 20201. About ten million doses will arrive in Italy every month. By June 2021, all those who want to get vaccinated in Italy will be able to do so ”, explains Di Lorenzo.

“Not to spread easy optimism, but to respond to a just hunger for information: it is absolutely credible that the experimentation of the AstraZeneca-Oxford project can come to an end with phase III trials at the end of November-mid-December. It is reasonable to think that by the end of the year there may be validation. At the end of the trial, the documentation is given to the regulatory agencies which normally take 6-12 months to complete the process. In this situation, which is not normal given millions of sick and dead, I am sure that the agencies will work to eliminate all the bureaucratic times and to speed up the process without canceling the rules relating to safety in the least, ”Di Lorenzo said.

ASTRAZENECA VACCINE TRIGGERES IMMUNE RESPONSE

Meanwhile, on the Astrazeneca vaccine, the first evidence arrives: the vaccine, also developed with the collaboration of the Italian Irbm, produces a robust immune response in elderly people, the highest risk group, writes Il Sole 24 ore , citing the Financial Times . The vaccine triggers protective antibodies and T cells in the older age groups. In July, Astrazeneca demonstrated that the vaccine generates "robust immune responses" in a group of healthy adults between the ages of 18 and 55.

However, immunogenicity tests do not guarantee that the vaccine is safe and effective in older people, the Financial Times points out.

RICCIARDI: VACCINAL CAMPAIGN NOT BEFORE 2021

But let's go back to the times. To have doubts about the arrival of the first doses of the vaccine within the year is the consultant of the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, Walter Ricciardi. “I am optimistic about the vaccine, but the vaccination campaign will arrive in 2021, not before. I believe that first a stronger therapy will come, the so-called monoclonal antibodies, which are very promising ”, Ricciardi told Rai Radio1.

ANTONELLA VIOLA: IN 2021 VACCINAL CAMPAIGN ON A SMALL GROUP OF PEOPLE

On the same wavelength is the immunologist Antonella Viola, who at Otto e mezzo, La7 program, said: “I don't want to be the pessimist of the situation, but we have placed many expectations on this vaccine. By the time it comes, things won't change much. The vaccine, hopefully, will be registered by the end of the year and the first doses will arrive in the spring of 2021 ”, explains Viola, adding:“ It will be a small number of doses, which can be used on a very small number of people. And you have to decide on who to use them. It will be necessary to do two administrations. So it will take more time and more organization to do two rounds of vaccinations. Until the vaccine is given to 100% of the population, the virus will circulate ”.

"This is a type of vaccine that does not prevent infection, but even those who are vaccinated can get infected and infect others," specifies the immunologist.

THE CRITICS OF CARTABELLOTTA

Indirect criticism of Conte's words also comes from Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation. “Announcing #vaccino for the end of the year and trusting that we will arrive calmly at #Christmas are paternalistic statements, not scientific predictions”, writes Cartabellotta on Twitter.

VILLA: EXPERIMENTATION TAKES TIME

Too many expectations also according to Roberta Villa, a journalist with a degree in medicine and surgery, who has collaborated among other things for over 20 years on the "Health" pages of Corriere della Sera and is currently a research fellow for the Ca 'Foscari University of Venice. , where he collaborates in the QUEST European project for the communication of science in Europe, together with the group of Fabiana Zollo and Walter Quattrociocchi. The statistics to establish the effectiveness of the drug take a long time that cannot be shortened. We cannot assess if the vaccine works only in a few days or weeks ”, explains Villa, interviewed by Start Magazine.

“This first wave of anti Covid vaccines is innovative, that is, it is produced in a different way from the previous ones. More checks are needed ”, adds the expert.

PIERPAOLO SILERI: NORMALITY IS (STILL) FAR AWAY

In fact, as early as September, it seems that the ideas on the timing of a possible vaccine were clear to the Ministry of Health. Pierpaolo Sileri, Deputy Minister of Health, claimed to be "realistic" in saying that an anti-Covid vaccine "will not be available until the middle of next year".

"And then I hope that there will be an effective and long-lasting vaccine, but above all safe", added Sileri, interviewed on Radio Cusano Campus. "Normality will occur either when the virus, motu proprio, were to change into a form favorable to us, perhaps turning into a virus that only gives colds and nothing more, or when we reach a herd immunity".

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/conte-sui-tempi-del-vaccino-anti-covid-esagera-parola-di-esperti-e-commissione-ue/ on Mon, 26 Oct 2020 14:50:51 +0000.