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Elections in Germany, this is what SPD, CDU and Verdi think about climate, work, taxation and more

Elections in Germany, this is what SPD, CDU and Verdi think about climate, work, taxation and more

Here are the positions of the three candidates in the elections in Germany: Armin Laschet for the CDU-CSU, Olaf Scholz for the SPD and Annalena Baerbock for the Greens. The in-depth study by Pierluigi Mennitti

Sunday's vote is an important milestone for Germany. Post-Merkel is being drawn, with the farewell of the chancellor who ruled Europe's leading economic power for 16 years. In the election campaign the term "choice of field" was used – sometimes abused – to emphasize the choice of voters. But the confrontation between the candidates betrayed this expectation. The great events that took place in the world (Afghanistan, Asia-Pacific, NATO) did not find space in the electoral debate, with the only exception of the latest televised confrontation between the leaders of all the parties, and the theme of Europe and of the weight that Germany intends to have in the coming years has been treated with an eye only to internal moods.

Even the look on the future of the country was launched with the short view of the appointment at the polls. Of course, climate change was the backdrop to the competition, but the discussion was consummated on short-term measures, while the major reforms remained in the limbo of generic statements.

A little bit to give substance to the post-Merkel scenarios. For the first time three candidates clashed, expression of the parties that should count the highest votes on Sunday evening: Armin Laschet for the CDU-CSU (Union), Olaf Scholz for the SPD and Annalena Baerbock for the Greens. The "poll factory", never as active as this year, points to the Social Democrats in the lead, the Union recovering and the Greens now condemned to third place. The real game will open once the results are known. A three-way alliance will probably be needed to build the next government and it is by no means certain that whoever comes out first in the polls will then be chancellor.

Observers agree: the negotiation game will be long and complex, the possible coalitions will be more than one. From the day after, another competition opens and the party programs could make the difference. Climate, housing, taxation and businesses, work were the most debated topics and will be those on which the next majority will be built. We see similarities and differences expressed by the three candidates for the succession of Angela Merkel on the issues that most heated the electoral campaign.

CLIMATE

Battleground of the Grünen, it was for a long time the hottest topic of the election campaign. At least until the costs of the ecological transition and the sacrifices that some aspects connected to it (such as mobility in transport) entail for large sections of the population have also emerged in the debate. Especially the older one, the majority at the polls.

However, it remains a central theme, also due to the resonance it gets in the media. The differences between the three candidates in the race are great and mainly concern the road map. No one has doubts about the final goal: the achievement of climate neutrality.

The discrepancies start immediately from the date: 2045 for the Union and the SPD (which recently jointly launched a package of measures), 2040 for the Greens. The Social Democrats concede that by 2040 energy must be entirely produced from renewables.

A radical transformation of the economy and society as a function of climate neutrality: in the Greens' program, climate protection crosses all the chapters horizontally. And it occupies the entire range of proposals of the “Sofortprogramm”, the program for the first 100 days. Immediate measures to bring Germany back on the 1.5 degrees line envisaged by the Paris agreements: 70% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, the year in which the farewell to coal would be anticipated, all new laws would pass under consideration a Co2 cap, constitutional anchorage for the Paris objectives and for the definitive exit from nuclear power, reworking of the European emissions trading system, increase in the national price of Co2 to 60 euros starting from 2023. Compensation fund for citizens burdened by higher costs at the expense of the reduction of contributions (EEG Umlage) given to operators of renewable energy systems that inject electricity into the public supply network.

“Bans do not produce innovation” was Armin Laschet's leitmotif during the election campaign. To achieve climate-neutrality, the Union is relying more on industry investment in innovative technologies. The achievement of the Paris agreements will take place only with the contribution of companies which must be guaranteed tax concessions for investments in technologies for efficiency and climate protection: climate neutrality must become a factor in the greater competitiveness of German industry, a little 'what was the quality of the products in the last century.

Olaf Scholz has focused on the social sustainability of the cost of the ecological transition. Also for the SPD (as for the Greens) a reduction of the "EEG Umlage" should reduce energy costs, while the increased price of Co2 for heating must be borne by homeowners. Solar energy support for all public buildings, schools, town halls, but also supermarkets, all equipped with solar panel roofs. Hydrogen technologies occupy an important place in the SPD program.

HOUSE

Housing policies have become one of the most felt issues by voters. The huge increase in rents in big cities, the strategies of large real estate consortia, the interests of small owners pushed to invest in homes with negative bank rates, the aims of organized crime attracted by legislative holes on money laundering. Suffice it to say that in Berlin, together with the ballots for the renewal of the parliament and the city assembly, the voters will find themselves in a referendum that proposes the expropriation of the large real estate groups present in the city: and the victory of the yes seems almost obvious.

How to respond to the hunger for housing, especially those at low prices that the market does not find it more convenient to build?

None of the three large parties in principle favors policies of expropriation of large groups, but the Greens do not completely rule it out: in particularly serious cases it could be an extreme option. Doors closed instead by Cdu-Csu (Union) and Spd, which are betting everything on incentives to construction companies for expansion plans. The numbers: CDU-CSU promises 1.5 million homes by 2025, Spd 100,000 social apartments (i.e. at controlled prices) per year, plus incentives for citizens to buy homes in abandoned areas. The Union defends single-family homes, which the Greens would like to ban or limit as "devourers" of land and natural resources. The SPD foresees that the municipalities can get back into possession of houses by buying them from large groups in order to affect the general price market.

Yes of Social Democrats and Greens on the rent ceiling (for the SPD linked to the inflation rate), no of CDU-CSU. However, for the Greens, climate protection policies are a priority also in the housing sector, with massive investments for the ecological rehabilitation of buildings (energy saving). Expensive operation, for which there is a compensation fund.

TAX AND BUSINESSES

The German industry is in defense (the most blatant example is that of the car), the world is changing and fast. How to maintain economic primacy in the face of competition (American and Asian)? Public investments or debt reduction and return to the "Schwarze Null", the budget without new debts? And on the fiscal front, how to repay the tax relief that everyone promises for low and medium incomes?

The SPD has emerged from the smokiness of the proposals by indicating a clear (and for some painful) objective: an increase in rates for the highest incomes. Three percent more for those who earn more than 250,000 euros a year (500,000 euros for the declarations of the spouses). Via the facilitations for spouses (Ehegattensplitting), introduction of a property tax of one percent and a minimum taxation of large corporate assets and family foundations that hold wealth. For the social democrats, the Schwarze Null must not be a rule of public policies: yes to the ceiling on debt but flexible, within which to find room for maneuver for credits to be allocated to public investments.

In an attempt to regain votes, Armin Laschet instead referred to the Schwarze Null of Schäubelian memory, the fetish of the party's conservative wing. After the debt hangover to face the pandemic crisis, we return to budget virtuosity, zero new debts and debt ceiling. Money will have to be found elsewhere to finance the promised tax relief for low and medium incomes and for businesses, including through a stabilization of payroll taxes.

But the workhorse of the Christian Democrats is the unbureaucratization, the loosening of the bureaucratic "snares and snares" that slow down the vitality of German industry.

WORK

On the subject of work, it was the Social Democrats who presented their proposals most effectively. All the other candidates had to pursue Olaf Scholz and his promise to raise the minimum wage from the current € 9.60 to 12, a proposal accompanied by learned estimates by economists who certified the positive impact on domestic consumption. Laschet countered by raising the threshold for minijobs from 450 to 550 euros per month, more a wink to companies than to workers. The SPD, on the other hand, has promised measures to encourage the transition from minijob contracts to traditional contracts (more stable and with social contributions).

On the new front of smart working, after the boom in the months of the lockdown, only the SPD spoke explicitly about it: the right to a home office for at least 24 days a year. Not much, but at least something compared to the silence of the CDU (closer to the industrialists, who do not look favorably on it). The right to smart working is actually also mentioned by the Grünen, but in principle, without further details.

The ecological revolution will bring many new jobs is of course the belief of the Greens, who have also given space to one of the problems that threaten to slow down the German economy in the coming years: the lack of manpower. If until a few years ago the complaints concerned only the qualified one, today the discourse appears more general, as evidenced by the impasse in some branches of services (gastronomy above all) or for road hauliers. For the Greens, a solution can come from abroad, thanks to immigration: a sort of green card for immigrants (Talentkarten) and acceleration of the recognition of qualifications acquired abroad (a real scourge of the German system). In addition: laws for the absorption of the so-called precariousness and, obviously, attention to workers penalized by the ecological transition, with transformation funds at the regional level that include subsidies, expenses for requalification and insertion into new work environments. Easier said than done, as evidenced by the recent crisis in the Lausitz mining area in East Germany.

THE LATEST POLL

In an electoral campaign dominated by advertising and PR agencies to which the parties have delegated propaganda and polls, here is the latest one a few hours before the vote. It has the authoritative brand of Zdf, the second public television channel that with its Politbarometer “ausculta” the political pulse of the nation all year round. The SPD maintains an advantage over the CDU / Csu that on the wool thread is thinning: 25% against 23. Two points of departure that now fall within the range of statistical uncertainty. Followed by the Greens at 16.5%, the liberals Fdp at 11, Afd at 10 and Linke at 6. One third of the interviewees Now the word, the real one, is up to the voters. A much higher number than usual, thanks to the pandemic situation, has already voted by mail.


This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/elezioni-germania-confronto-candidati/ on Sat, 25 Sep 2021 06:26:13 +0000.