Five phony themes about Russia
Here are the arguments that don't work on Russia according to Riccardo Pennisi, a geopolitics analyst at Aspenia. The post on LinkedIn
1) Putin has absolute power and cannot fall
Even if Putin has vast power (not absolute, however, if even the municipal councils of Moscow and St. Petersburg vote against him), if he loses Ukraine there are no saints in heaven: a dictator does not survive a great military defeat. Even Hitler, and he certainly had absolute power, when it was clear that the war was lost he suffered an attack (made by his own) from which he came out alive by a miracle.
The collaborators of a dictator stay with him because (and as long as) it is convenient, not because they love him. Does this mean the rapid advent of democracy in Russia? Of course not. An uncertain succession phase would open in which any outcome would be possible.
2) Sanctions are useless
Sanctions are a disaster for Russia. Yes, it sells a little more oil to India and China (below cost) , but that's not enough. If the sanctions were useless, Moscow would not ask for them to be lifted every day. He'd let us keep them. It would not continue to threaten to shut down the gas for good. If it sells so well elsewhere, what good are we to it?
The Russians are not starving (fortunately) but the technology industry is on its knees: the largest country in the world is currently unable to produce advanced weapons because sanctions steal technology. The latest Ukrainian counter-offensives are made possible precisely by the enormous technological gap that is opening up between the two armies.
3) Putin will react to defeats with carnage
No more than it has done so far. But he will not raze Ukraine with nuclear bombs – on which he does not decide on his own.
And what's the point of burying Kiev under bombs? Conquer a radioactive rubble field (he wanted to 'free' it, remember)? Make yourself the author of the worst massacre in history? See Moscow occupied by UN troops and razed in turn?
4) The friends of Russia are ready to supply you with weapons
Among Russia's friends, only China could offer adequate military support. But it won't: China has chosen the strictest neutrality. They are friends of Russia, but this war is damaging them economically and they would like it to end as soon as possible.
Moscow can try with Iran, North Korea, countries excluded from the international forum, which will sell few and useless weapons.
5) At the borders everything is under control
The day before yesterday, Azerbaijan attacked pro-Russian Armenia, from where Putin removed the troops to send them to Ukraine. Kazakhstan, where 9 months ago Russian troops helped the local government to crack down on protests against the rise in gas prices, has announced that it has left the OTSC (Russian NATO): it now adheres to US sanctions against Moscow.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, two members of the OTSC, are about to go to war. In Georgia, local armed contingents move to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, regions occupied by Russia in 2014. Everything is ok.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/cinque-temi-farlocchi-sulla-russia/ on Sun, 18 Sep 2022 06:47:52 +0000.