How and where Italian exports will rise. Sace report
Numbers, trends and scenarios on Italian exports (with foreign countries where export growth will be greater) according to the Sace report presented on 14 September
The rebound of the global economy will drive Made in Italy exports which will reach higher levels than those pre-pandemic . This is said by Sace's 2021 Export Report which this year is entitled “ Back to the future: anatomy of a post-pandemic recovery “.
Sace, the state-owned company that helps Italian companies to work on foreign markets by insuring their activities, estimates a rebound of 11.3% in exports of goods , with full return to pre-pandemic levels already in 2021 when sales reach 482 billion.
In 2022, growth will be 5.4% and 4% in the following two years. This pace, almost one point higher than the average pre-crisis rate (+ 3.1%, on an annual average, between 2012 and 2019), will allow the value of 550 billion in exports of goods to be reached in 2024.
Ministers Daniele Franco and Luigi Di Maio also attended the Sace event
The presentation of the report was also attended by Daniele Franco , Minister of Economy and Finance, Luigi Di Maio , Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Barbara Beltrame , Vice President for Internationalization Confindustria, Francesco Starace , Chief Executive Officer of Enel, Maria Bianca Farina , President of Poste Italiane and President of ANIA and Federico Ghella , Vice President of Ghella and President of the ANCE Foreign Works Committee. After the greeting of the President Rodolfo Error, the Chief Executive Officer Pierfrancesco Latini and the Chief Economist Alessandro Terzulli intervened for SACE.
Daniele Franco: "Export will soon return to pre-crisis levels"
“The ability to export is essential for the success of the manufacturing system”. This was said by the Economy Minister Daniele Franco, the first to speak among the many speakers at the presentation. “We have recovered market share, exports in volume increased in line with the German one. The growth of exports in 2021 in value is of the order of 11% which brings us back to pre-crisis levels ”, continues the minister. Italy will experience a real and important recovery only if it is able to devote itself to innovation. “Italy has a slightly positive equity position, the number of innovative companies must be expanded and the ability to intercept the opportunities of foreign markets strengthened, the number of companies to position themselves on the market must be expanded – observed the minister -. The goal is to increase the volume of operations and make interventions faster and more accessible . The new regime allows the State to take on insurance commitments up to 120 billion: for 2021, 28 billion are estimated and 30 for next year ".
Rodolfo Error: "Italian GDP better than the European average"
“The period we are going through will be a watershed for our history”. SACE President Rodolfo Error is convinced of this. “2021 will be remembered as the year in which Italian exports resumed growth with double-digit results – continues the president Error -. A year in which SACE has maintained constant commitment and focus on exports , with a substantial growth in the resources mobilized, working in parallel, with the Italian Guarantee, also to support the competitiveness of the country in an emergency. Without forgetting that our GDP is better than the European average and the National Recovery and Resilience Plan is proving to be the driving force of the country's development ”. The expectations of Italian companies towards the new horizons that the PNRR can offer are very high. “The PNRR – concluded the president Error – must not be just an economic event but a chance to modernize the country by taking up the challenge of digitization and sustainability , and above all an opportunity to overcome inequalities. SACE will support PNRR investments, on the one hand with guarantees and insurance coverage for strategic projects, and on the other with its role as facilitator of the Italian New Green Deal. So we will be even more alongside companies, to make the whole country grow ”.
PNRR a driving force for the Italian GDP
The Sace Report estimates that a full implementation of the structural reforms of the PNRR and their maintenance over a medium-term horizon would accentuate the intensity of GDP growth, especially in the last three years "in 2025 the national output would increase by 2.7% as a reflection of the growth in investments and reforms with positive repercussions on potential GDP ”. The structural reforms of the PNRR would also increase the competitiveness of companies active on foreign markets, so much so that the level of emissions of goods by 2025 would increase by 3.5% compared to what is expected in the base scenario. Sace intends to do its part by focusing on "strategic projects relating to circular economy, sustainable mobility and digitalization of the production sector and investments in the green, with signature lines to guarantee the various stages of execution of the orders, as well as creating spaces for schemes of public-private partnership ". The PNRR must not only serve to return to pre-crisis levels but to overcome them "by bridging those structural gaps, to allow Italy to regain its proper weight in the global market", says Pierfrancesco Latini, CEO of SACE, during his intervention. And this through investments in infrastructure, digitalization and sustainability.
Pierfrancesco Latini: "Sace has mobilized 67 million euros in favor of businesses"
The CEO of Sace Pierfrancesco Latini also underlines the new role assumed by Sace in the years of the pandemic. “In the most difficult moment in the health and economic history of our Republic, we have been entrusted with a new mandate, which has drawn up a roadmap for Sace – says CEO Latini -. A new business model that goes beyond our traditional support for exports and internationalization that we have been pursuing for over forty years, also extending it to the domestic market and to green guarantees. A commitment that has translated from the beginning of the Pandemic to today into over 67 billion euros of resources mobilized in favor of businesses “. Sace has mobilized 38 billion euros “by supporting Italian companies with insurance-financial products – continued Latini -. On the domestic territory we intervened with the Italian Guarantee, the emergency instrument entrusted to us by the Government to support companies during the Pandemic. In this context, we have mobilized resources for over 28 billion euros, for a total of more than 3,000 guarantees issued ”. As for the Italian Green New Deal "-
The medal table of the recovery: Germany, USA and Switzerland gold medal
In the year of the Olympics, SACE's 2021 Export Report borrows the sporting language to draw up a ranking of the main Made in Italy destinations. Gold medals are awarded to countries where Italian exports have already recovered and are expected to remain dynamic in the following years. These countries are Germany , the first market for our country, the United States , the third Italian market and the first non-EU market, with a growth rate of 11% in 2021 and Switzerland, which consolidates its role as an international logistics hub. Silver medal to France, the Netherlands and Brazil, countries in which exports will return to pre-crisis levels already this year, but will then proceed at a slower pace. In France, the second target market, the automotive and construction sectors will push, including the “Grand Paris Express” project. Brazil, on the other hand, will recover in 2021 thanks to the performance of instrumental mechanics (+ 10.2%), means of transport (+ 19.3%, in particular automotive) and electrical appliances. Following with the bronze medal are the United Kingdom, Spain and Austria, markets to which our exports will not recover pre-crisis levels in 2021 and will record much more contained growth in the following years "due to political and institutional structures uncertain, commercial limitations linked to international sanctioning frameworks as well as obviously the economic, health and social impacts of the pandemic ”, reads the report.
The recovery of Italian exports to distant markets, according to the Sace report
Other countries well positioned to welcome Italian products are Japan , for which + 14.3% is expected in 2021 and Russia , only partially affected by the pandemic, which can count on economic solidity and limited public debt and important foreign exchange reserves. “It will be instrumental mechanics to drive Italian exports to Moscow (+ 18.7%)”, reads the report. Mechanical, food and beverage exports to Canada and Poland should be very positive. "Chemicals and metals led the performance in China last year, but in 2021 it will exceed 14 billion euros in 2021 and the acceleration of sales to Beijing will be driven in particular by fashion and furniture," the report reads. South Korea, which has been able to counter the effects of the pandemic and has become the third largest market in the region, is also doing well, Italy will be present with textiles and clothing, thanks to the appreciation by Korean consumers for Italian high fashion. Other strategic markets will be Vietnam (+ 16% in 2021), Taiwan (+ 7.5% in 2021), Saudi Arabia (+ 9.6%) and United Arab Emirates , to which exports will grow by 15%. In Saudi Arabia, there are good prospects for chemicals and metals, which together are worth almost half a billion euros worth of goods, metals in particular will be driven by infrastructure and construction, which are at the heart of the two huge diversification programs wanted by the crown prince, " Vision 2030 ”and“ Shareek ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/come-e-dove-schizzera-lexport-italiano-report-sace/ on Tue, 14 Sep 2021 13:43:37 +0000.