How is GDP in Italy, lights and shadows

Giuseppe Liturri's comment on the data relating to the change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 disclosed by Istat

This morning Istat announced the data relating to the change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021. As widely announced , there was a change of + 0.6% and + 6.4%, respectively, compared to the third quarter of 2021 and IV quarter 2020.

Growth is being driven by domestic demand, with a negative contribution from the trade balance towards foreign countries.

With this estimate, the growth in 2021 compared to 2020 stands at + 6.5%. In the last year, however, the decline in GDP was 9% compared to 2019 and therefore we conclude 2021 with a decrease of 3.1% compared to 2019.

Looking only at the fourth quarter, in 2021 we are still -0.5% compared to 2019.

We are still far behind the pre-pandemic level and, above all, we are entering 2022 with uncomfortable signals regarding the speed of approaching the goal.

In fact, the + 0.6% in the fourth quarter follows a much more robust + 2.6% and + 2.7% recorded in the previous quarters and does not suggest anything good for the current quarter, during which fully manifesting all the recessive effects of the expensive energy, the difficulty in supplying and the expensive energy. The chasm in the accounts of Saipem , a publicly controlled company, reported this morning is only a foretaste of the problems that are gripping many Italian companies.

To complete the gloomy colors of the picture, the substantial arrest of the propulsive thrust deriving from bonuses for construction works is being added in these days. With the blocking of the unlimited transfer of tax credits, the government has effectively decreed its end. And the impact will not be long in coming, because in the last quarter of 2021, as many as 6 billion of construction works were linked to these incentives.

After stumbling upon the race for the Colle, it is desirable that Mario Draghi and his government know what to do so as not to find ourselves at the end of April reading a negative sign in front of the current quarter's GDP.

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/come-va-il-pil-in-italia-luci-e-ombre/ on Mon, 31 Jan 2022 11:43:28 +0000.