How much will Tesla, Catl, Volkswagen, Lg Chem invest in batteries
The boom in electric vehicles can trigger investments of 560 billion in gigafactory. What the Rystad Energy report on batteries says
The push to buy electric vehicles globally will be instrumental in bolstering the production capacity of lithium-ion batteries to meet growing demand. Along with other forms of electrified transport and storage applications, the annual demand for batteries will approach 7 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2030. Given that current capacity is just 0.76 TWh at the end of 2020, investments are likely to be required to about $ 560 billion to cover the deficit. This is what the latest Rystad Energy report shows .
POSSIBLE INVESTMENTS OF UP TO A TRILLION DOLLARS AFTER 2030
With cumulative investments made in lithium-ion production reaching a relatively modest level of $ 128 billion at the end of 2020, this decade's spending on meeting demand will mean for the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry an increase in cumulative investment in the sector to approximately $ 690 billion by 2030 and more than $ 1 trillion in the years thereafter.
IN 2030 6.9 TWH OF PRODUCTION THANKS TO INVESTMENTS
The costs to build the battery production capacity have decreased over time and the planned investment will bring the total production capacity in the 2030s to 6.9 TWh. Of these, 6.5 TWh includes current capacity and future additions from planned investments, along with unspecified projects that global companies have proposed. The remaining 0.4 TWh should be linked to other projects needed to meet global demand.
PLANS FOR 3 TWH OF ANNOUNCED PROJECTS. ADDITIONAL 3.4 TWH BY 2030 THANKS TO CATL AND TESLA
Plans for so-called gigafactories – facilities capable of producing an annual capacity of 1 gigawatt hour (GWh) or more – are growing and contributing to economies of scale that allow for more cost-effective manufacturing of battery cells. "Our forecast for the decade includes around 3 TWh in the projects announced so far, with an additional 3.4 TWh expected to enter the mix by 2030 in the wake of expansion plans proposed by Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL) and Tesla," he said. Rystad Energy explained.
IN 2021 BATTERY SALES EXPECTED FOR 80 BILLION DOLLARS, + 26% COMPARED TO 2020
“Our research shows that battery sales of $ 80 billion are projected for 2021, a 26% increase from 2020 levels. Given the surge in demand for batteries, we expect annual sales to reach $ 130 billion. $ 160 billion in 2025 and nearly $ 160 billion in 2030. This growth rate is lower than that of global capacities, but due to projected changes in battery chemistry and learning curve savings, the costs of batteries will decline this decade, increasing profit margins, ”said Matthew Wilks, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.
INVESTMENTS CONCENTRATED IN ASIA IN 2020
Most of the investments in 2020 were concentrated in Asia, following the historical trend of production, with the region accounting for 85% of the 98 billion dollars spent between 2015 and 2019. The Asian market fell to 76 billion. % in 2020 due to an increasing number of projects announced over the past two years and the Asian share is set to decline further as more European projects receive the green light. However, Europe is set to increase its share to over 40% by 2024, the consulting firm warns.
A supply deficit is expected starting in 2029, so the modeled investments needed to meet demand cause spending to rise towards the end of the decade. This increase could potentially push annual investments beyond the $ 100 billion barrier in 2030.
CATL ON THE PODIUM
Investments in battery factories announced so far for the period from 2015 to 2030 amount to $ 263 billion. CATL leads the market with 16% of the total expenditure planned for the period. The $ 43 billion pledged includes a $ 2 billion investment in the Erfurt plant in Germany – which represents the company's first foray into Europe – and $ 2.8 billion to expand production in China at the Fujian plant. Jiangsu and Sichuan. Rystad Energy estimates that an additional $ 71 billion will be needed for the company to double its production capacities from the 0.55 TWh per year projected in the announcements to the target level of 1.2 TWh by 2025.
THE MOVES OF TESLA
Tesla, meanwhile, is expected to account for 7% of total global spending through 2030 based on its announced giant factories, amounting to $ 18 billion in investments for the period. But with its aggressive proposal to increase production capacity to 3 TWh by 2030 from current levels of around 50 GWh, “we believe an additional $ 230 billion of capital will be needed. This amount is approximately equal to the sum of all capital commitments announced so far in May 2021, ”Rystad Energy points out.
VOLKSWAGEN AND THE OTHERS
Volkswagen, which has announced six European gigafactories, represents a 12% share of total investments globally, although the first of its factories is only expected to be operational by the end of the year. Additionally, SVOLT, LG Chem, Farasis and BYD have pledged to spend over $ 10 billion during this period, Rystad concludes.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/quanto-investiranno-tesla-catl-volkswagen-lg-chem-sulle-batterie/ on Sun, 13 Jun 2021 13:56:35 +0000.