How Poland gasses itself against Russia (or against Germany?)
Poland's moves on energy. The in-depth study by Gianni Bessi
In the previous stage of our journey into the Zeitgeist of Europe during the European semester under German presidency, the last – it seems – of Chancellor Angela Merkel, passing through Brussels, our now proverbial curiosity was attracted by what happens on the eastern borders. It is there that the Belarus blast broke out, with Russia dusting off its 1960s spy movie repertoire with relative attempts to poison some opponents of Tsar Putin. And it is always the ì that continues the never ending story of the 'Nord Stream 2' gas pipeline, the one that 'doesn't have to be done'.
The House of Tsar fly, which as those who follow us know is the protagonist of the stories on Start Magazine (later collected in the book " House of Tsar " published by goWare edizioni ), once again collected interesting material and some suggestions that seem fantasy but it is not….
Discussions between Moscow and Western energy companies over the construction of a third and fourth strings of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, which directly connects the Russian Federation and Germany, began almost a decade ago. But problems with Russian construction and financing coupled with the imposition of US sanctions in December 2019 slowed the project to a near complete halt more or less 100 kilometers from the desired destination.
Furthermore, the spite that the American administration inspires on Poles and Ukrainians, whom the Siloviki of Moscow or the men of power consider vassals of the stars and stripes power, will inevitably lead to a game of spite in which those with less broad shoulders and less swollen pockets will inevitably tend to pay the saltier consequences.
While this is happening, Warsaw has been planning the construction of the Baltic Pipe, an underwater gas pipeline to carry gas from Norway to Poland, via Denmark. This pipeline, backed by Washington which plans to place its liquefied natural gas in this way thanks to the expansion of LNG imports at the Swinoujscie terminal (known in Poland as the "North Gate" energy corridor), could reduce the need for Warsaw to renew gas agreement with Moscow. According to 'Potezny', Polish politicians, the north-south gas pipeline will be completed by 1 October 2022, the same date as the current gas agreement between Warsaw and the Russian Gazprom: it will bring ten billion cubic meters of gas in Poland in part even coming from the Dutch field of Groningen (although the latter has decreased production capacity and quality in recent years).
Polish President Andrzej Duda proudly stressed that this new pipeline will represent "a milestone on the road to the energy independence of his country from Russia". But more than this, the president thinks that this infrastructure will allow Poland to become a gas hub for the region, allowing it to export the hoped-for surpluses to neighboring countries, especially Ukraine and the three Baltic sisters. By achieving, we add, the economic benefits of those who from a paying state become the importer of duties for the relevant transit rights and the directionality of the gas transported to friendly consignee countries. But…
The decline in global oil prices has led to many closures in oil production in the United States, which will inevitably cause their natural gas prices to rise. Much of the gas produced by the United States is “associated gas” obtained as a byproduct of oil production from shale sands, with processes that are harmful to the environment. In parallel, LNG demand in other markets is declining, causing export prices to be unsuccessful, which has led to the collapse of some projects and geopolitical implications of the severe decline in LNG exports from the United States, which could have significant undesirable implications for the US and its allies / customers.
Our wandering insect in Moscow has registered a certain satisfaction from the energy Siloviki: they are convinced that they can get some pebbles out of their shoes regarding the Baltic Pipe project, given that the planned pipeline will have to cross the Nord Stream 2 route and, therefore, will have to secure your Russian pass before crossing it. Furthermore, Poland's plans to send gas south to Ukraine show a weakness: the capacity of the existing connecting 'strings' between Poland and Ukraine have too little capacity to allow the transit of desired volumes of gas from Warsaw and Kiev. The two countries will undoubtedly seek to expand the necessary interconnecting pipelines, but this may take longer than you think, unless they can get much-needed external support from the stars and stripes ally.
(go on)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/come-la-polonia-si-gasa-contro-la-russia-o-contro-la-germania/ on Sat, 17 Oct 2020 04:58:43 +0000.