How the bold Erdogan will move on the economy, industry, NATO and Russia
Erdogan won the elections in Türkiye by playing on nationalism. Now the president will have to decide whether to continue the authoritarian drift or try to reunite the country. The in-depth analysis by Valentina Rita Scotti, professor of public law and expert on Turkey, for Stefano Feltri's blog Appunti
With 52 percent of the votes, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected president of the Republic of Turkey.
This datum, albeit historical, shows the relevance of the internal divisions of the population and raises important questions about the directions that the country will take in the near future.
WHAT THE ELECTION RESULTS SAY
In fact, the electoral data confirmed that the People's Alliance remains the preferred option of the Anatolian population, the historical electoral basin of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), while the more urbanized areas, including Ankara and Istanbul, and the coastal areas continue to support the opposition, which has also increased support among residents abroad.
However, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's Alliance of the Nation seems to have failed to capitalize on the mounting dissent towards the president and the project of inclusiveness it has proposed seems to be destined to fail.
In fact, the conservatives who had been included in the coalition did not really steal votes from the AKP, the nationalists showed their many internal fractures and Kılıçdaroğlu's last-minute choice to accept the support of the most extreme fringes of the ancestral Alliance – which also split the day after the first round – seems to have alienated a part of the Kurdish vote.
THE NATIONALISM OF THE TURKS
The most evident fact is the existence of a strong nationalism among the population, respect for which in political programs seems to have weighed much more than the different recipes for the economy or international positioning in the choices of the electorate.
It also clearly emerges how the numerous international observers and pollsters who had assumed the victory of the opposition did not actually understand the true nature of the internal dynamics of Turkey, whose majority of the population attributes a priority value to stability and political continuity.
The allegations of fraud, which both parties in dispute have also raised, do not seem to find any real foundation, given the first post-election report by the OSCE-Odhir which highlights how the elections were essentially carried out correctly.
Rather, the context of competitive authoritarianism in which the country has been living for some time may have weighed on the electoral result, which would have ensured the outgoing majority greater media exposure and greater access to funds for the electoral campaign.
Turkey still has a lot to do to ensure that the concept of democracy does not end with just the periodical repetition of almost fair elections, but takes the form of constant respect for reciprocal positions and opinions beyond the electoral moment.
A respect that has certainly not been seen in this electoral campaign, where defamatory tones have been loud from all the candidates.
SCENARIOS AFTER ERDOGAN'S VICTORY
Erdogan's electoral victory now opens up multiple scenarios.
As far as international alignment is concerned, Erdogan will certainly confirm his choice for a Turkey independent of any foreign influence, a solid member of NATO to the point of influencing new members (as in the recent cases of Sweden and Finland), but also capable of dialoguing with Putin's Russia (as the negotiations on wheat have already shown) obtaining in exchange support for the energy supply of gas and for the construction of new nuclear power plants, following the example of what has already happened in Akkuyu.
The military expenditure of the State in support of private initiative, which has already led to the creation of the now famous Bayraktar drones, should not fail, as well as the support for civilian industry, especially in the automotive sector which recently produced the Togg, first electric car entirely produced in Turkey.
THE RELAUNCH OF BUILDING AND TOURISM
Furthermore, as a result of the earthquake swarm of February 2023, one can imagine that new impetus will be given to the construction activity, which has already contributed to the economic recovery of the country and which could do so again, given the need to find a compromise between the international economies and Erdogan's 'heterodox' recipe which aims to cut interest rates to counter the growth of inflation.
The fight against the economic crisis, moreover, will continue to involve the government in supporting needy families, for which plans for food assistance and for the payment of utilities have already been prepared.
Finally, tourism should be confirmed as a sector in which the new government will invest both to attract foreign currency and to relaunch Turkey's image internationally.
HUMAN RIGHTS
More controversial could be the choices regarding rights.
If the consolidation of the authoritarian drift of the order cannot be excluded, it is also true that – according to the current Constitution – this is certainly the last presidential mandate for Erdogan, who could therefore prefer to leave a different memory of himself in the annals of the country, for example by mending some of the social fractures.
The two victory speeches, held respectively in Istanbul and Ankara, have already shown the desire to dialogue with the whole of society, setting aside the friend/enemy dialectic.
Some topics, however, remain absolutely outside the president's sphere of interest.
The total rejection of any theory based on gender equality, and therefore on the recognition of LGBTQIA rights*, is an established fact, but the risk that the economic crisis will lead to a new weakening due to migratory flows could lead the leader, who strongly supports the theory that "numbers are power", to launch support programs for the younger sections of the population and to encourage the work of women – which the economy cannot do without, despite a clear political preference for their role of 'hearth angels' – supporting family assistance programs and tax exemptions for caring activities.
Finally, a reopening of dialogue with minorities for the pacification of the country could be possible, although at the moment there is no margin for dialogue with the formations of Kurdish nationalist extremism, contrary to what happened in the past.
The reconciliation of these important social fractures, however, would be the greatest legacy that Erdogan, now confirmed as the longest serving Turkish political leader, could make to the country in view of the new century of this democracy still seeking consolidation.
(Excerpt from Stefano Feltri's newsletter Appunti; sign up here )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/erdogan-turchia-cosa-fara/ on Fri, 02 Jun 2023 05:22:18 +0000.