I’ll explain the latest moves by Putin and Zelensky. General Jean is speaking
Russia's economy in great difficulty, the war waged for Putin's thirst for power: the annexation of the 4 Ukrainian regions hides Russia's flop in Ukraine. And Zelensky's move for accelerated NATO membership is not feasible…. The analysis of General Carlo Jean
General Jean, what changes after the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions ( Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) proclaimed by Putin?
Putin has given substance to his threat to consider the territories occupied by Russian troops as part of Russia. An attack on these territories, therefore a Ukrainian counterattack, would be considered an attack on Russia for which the Russian military doctrine provides that, in the event of the failure of conventional forces, nuclear weapons can also be used.
So is the nuclear threat more concrete?
But in my opinion it would be complete madness because nuclear weapons are very effective against cities but against troops, especially troops with armored vehicles and protected vehicles, they are much less so. Except that they are not used in large numbers. Let's take into account that during the Cold War NATO had 7,000 nuclear weapons in Europe which were prepared in packages of 50, 100 nuclear warheads at a time. But I don't think Russia can do such a thing because it would be at stake for the support of China, India and the rest of the world.
Was the annexation of the republics used to conceal the flop of the war?
This is clear. Putin is desperate because, if democracies can lose a war and not change their political regime, the autocracies that lose the war change their political regime. And generally autocrats not only lose their power but also leave their skin behind.
Is the prospect of a negotiation for the end of the war moving away or approaching?
Ukraine can never agree to lose a fifth of its territory. No state would accept it, especially as Ukraine is gassed by the result it has achieved south of Kharkiv. Ukrainian public opinion, emboldened by the success of the counter-offensive in the north, could hardly support a negotiation that considers the annexation of territories.
President Zelensky recently re-launched saying that he will ask for accelerated membership of NATO.
This is talk. It is not feasible. It is enough for a NATO member to refuse and NATO membership is not possible. And as long as there is war, even the US will not agree to cover Ukraine with its nuclear umbrella.
There are four leaks in the Nord Stream gas pipeline. How can the EU react?
Europe must completely free itself from Russian gas. The destruction of the pipeline changes nothing. Nord Stream 1 has not been in operation for a month now. The fact that it has been sabotaged and that it can hardly be put back into operation does not change the situation. Germany built five regasification plants , some of which were very large, and consequently freed itself from importing gas from Russia. Except for that portion bound by very stringent contracts which still continues to flow through Belarus, Poland or through the Ukraine friendship pipeline.
In your opinion, who was it that sabotaged the pipelines?
In my opinion, Russia . It is very difficult for a Western democracy to carry out an operation of that kind. Democracies can impose sanctions, penalize companies that continue to import Russian gas, put them out of business, prevent other companies that have contact with these companies from acting in their country, having loans or insurance coverage. These military operations are very difficult in democracies because sooner or later we find out who did it. Think about it if a navy saboteur were to put 500kg of TNT and have proof that he did, imagine how much money he could expect to keep this news secret.
Will continuing on the path of sanctions lead to a positive outcome for the US and Europe?
Sanctions certainly have a cost, but they have a disastrous effect on the Russian economy. All those bales that Salvini tells are neither in heaven nor on earth . Salvini refers to the Russian trade balance which is positive but because Russia can no longer import anything. It has stopped planes, Renault cars, whose factory has been nationalized, are delivered without air conditioning. The Russian military industry, which is heavily dependent on German components, also suffers greatly because the Russians are no longer able to produce laser-guided bombs. The Russian economy as a whole has an 11/12% decline in GDP.
But the ruble is holding.
The governor of the Russian central bank, Elvira Nabiullina , is a financial genius who managed to keep the ruble standing in a really brilliant way, but she confessed to an English friend of hers that Russia to recover from sanctions and the withdrawal of Western companies it will take ten years, especially for the high-tech industry.
What was the outcome of the mobilization of the reservists?
I answer you like this. Usually you run away from a territory when your homeland is overrun by an enemy. In the Russian case, hundreds of thousands of people fled their own country which invaded another. In one month it seems that 260 thousand people have escaped, a more unique than rare case.
Does Russia feel cornered? How do you find a way out without getting into a head-on collision?
The war is no longer fought for Russia but for Putin's power. An autocrat cannot lose the war because he loses power if not his life. The West for its part manages to resist. Of course we are having problems with the cost of energy but in 2022 the Italian GDP will increase by 3% . The Russian GDP, which was supposed to increase by 2.5% in 2022, is decreasing by 11%. Russia will have no shortage of bread and fuel but high-tech industries are jumping.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/vi-spiego-le-ultime-mosse-di-putin-e-zelensky-parla-il-generale-jean/ on Fri, 30 Sep 2022 20:22:38 +0000.