Telecom, this is why Intesa Sanpaolo applauds Kkr’s move on Tim

Telecom, this is why Intesa Sanpaolo applauds Kkr's move on Tim

What analysts and reports from SIMs and banks (such as Intesa Sanpaolo) say and write.

Tim on the swing today on the stock market.

Telecom Italia has reversed the course in Piazza Affari at the end of the morning: the shares mark a decline of 3.3%, reaching 0.48 euros. Yesterday, however, they gained over 15% on the hypothesis that Kkr is willing to raise the stakes, putting on the plate a much more generous price than the initial offer of 0.505 euros.

Investors, however, are cautious, given the fact that the offer is not binding and therefore the fund can back down at any time. Meanwhile, the expectation for the board of directors of tomorrow is rising, convened by 11 directors who could corner the CEO, Luigi Gubitosi, due to the disappointing accounts that the company is recording and for the poor results obtained with Dazn.

Among the analysts there are those who fear that the company will be forced to launch a new profit warning. On the other hand, Equita analysts also believe it is difficult for the CEO to be ousted, considering the delicate situation of the company.

Let's see what analysts and reports of sims and banks say and write.


Even if the situation remains complex, "we do not exclude that KKR may consider increasing its offer at some point to convince all interested parties to support its project", indicated Intesa Sanpaolo (buy and target price at € 0.47 ), specifying that the price offered by KKR "is 7% higher than our target price on the ordinary share at € 0.47, which, however, does not take into account any synergies deriving from a merger with Open Fiber or a full valuation of the business cloud. We also believe that, if Vivendi's opposition continues, KKR's offer could go from friendly to hostile ”, they added from Intesa Sanpaolo.


Pure Banca Akros – reports Mf – is convinced that the offer is open to potential upward revisions, at the same it has noted that the current price incorporates about 60% probability that the operation will be completed at the price of 0.505 euros per share, or 11 cents against the implicit premium of 18 cents of the share price of 0.31 / 33 euros of the previous days. “By discounting even a modest probability of the supply being increased and keeping the probability of a deal at 60%, we believe the current share price would offer upside potential in excess of 10%,” the investment bank calculated. Therefore, “we believe that the risk / return of investing in Tim is still favorable in this context, also supported by a fundamental valuation that already points to over 50 euro cents in an as is scenario”.


The project of the American fund Kkr on Tim's assets is based on the spin-off of the network to offer it "on a term basis" to Cdp (controlled by the Mef), approximately after a few years, once the reorganization is complete. In this scenario, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti would then decide whether to keep two distinct stakes in the TIM network and in Open Fiber or to create the "single network", at this point totally disconnected from the telecommunications giant. The objective could be to replicate the Terna model and separate the services part from the infrastructural part, according to recent journalistic rumors about the Kkr fund.


“This hypothesis seems more credible to us than rumors that hypothesize an intervention on the ex-ante network: separation before the takeover bid or an acceleration on the single network project”, observed Equita. “KKR, in fact, would maintain full exposure to the infrastructure asset, the primary focus of the fund, guaranteeing the necessary investments in the coming years and then offering a path that points to the single network, with timelines consistent with the complex examination of the European regulator”.

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL on Thu, 25 Nov 2021 14:27:39 +0000.