What will be the economic patriotism of Giorgia Meloni
Gianfranco Polillo's analysis
Having the interests of the nation as a guiding star entails a series of consequences that are far from trivial. It means first of all looking, with greater attention to the international reality, where, in fact, to place the nation. Above all to see how other countries can influence it and more than once try to subdue it. Not necessarily with the roar of weapons. But with rules, political decisions, administrative practices, apparently neutral, but in fact tailored to the interests of competing countries. Think also of the European Union, of the Franco-German axis today, fortunately, less dominant; but replaced by the alliance of the "frugal", whose economic, financial, but also oil resources make the difference.
In light of these considerations, the decisions made by Giorgia Meloni, in harmony with her management team, to support Mario Draghi's government in foreign policy should not have come as a surprise. Italian interests coincided with those of the West. Not only Europe, but the United States itself, as well as NATO, and other historical allies (from Canada to Japan). Certainly, one could not follow in the footsteps of Putin or that of Xi Jinping, with his "new silk road". Faced with such a dry alternative, the choice of Brothers of Italy had been consistent. We were with the West, in defense of the homeland, and the contingent position of the party did not matter. That is, staying in the government or in the opposition.
This consistency has also proved successful on the electoral level. A clear sign that the voters appreciated. After the elections there was a lot of discussion about whether other political forces were penalized or not by having participated in that experience. It may have been so, but it seems to us that there were other reasons. Those dangerous fluctuations on the very nature of the war in Ukraine, which have cast doubt. In many cases, the invocation for peace appeared to be a cunning way to disarm the attacked and favor those who, as was evident, would not have given up a square centimeter of the conquered territory. Thanks to an apparent military superiority, then proved to be a sieve.
The harmony between Mario Draghi and Giorgia Meloni therefore had this root. On the one hand a civil servant, who has in his DNA more than ten years spent in the service of his country, on the other the leader of a party that had patriotism, and not sovereignism, as has too often been said, its root, in terms of values. Is there a difference between the two terms? Of course it exists. Sovereignty has a definite assonance with nationalism, which is most often destined to overflow into imperialism. The history of Russia, from its imperial past, passing through communism, and now with the return to the theses of Aleksandr Dugin, is entirely contained in that parable. Patriotism is instead that of the Italian Risorgimento and also that of a part of the Resistance, as a national liberation struggle. And not of armed struggle for communism.
If we look at this background, the insistence on the need to arrive at the formation of a “strong and cohesive, authoritative, competent, high-profile” government appears to be consistent with what has just been mentioned. A government of this kind serves, first of all, to continue the action already undertaken by Mario Draghi, both on an international and a European level. It is difficult not to see how, in recent months, the Italian prestige has grown, to the point of legitimizing the worst doubts about the action taken to oust it, before its natural expiry. Would an entirely political government, made up of the back rows of the various parties, give continuity to such an action?
Then there is the home front. Putin's destabilizing strategy risks having a profound impact on the economic and financial situation of the whole of Europe and of affecting our country in a particular way. Forced to pay for past mistakes. Above all, being tied hand and foot to Russian gas supplies, instead of proceeding more quickly in the diversification of both the sources of supply and the way of producing energy. Read green and nuclear. There is a fact on which it is necessary to turn the spotlight.
The latest forecasts indicate the end of that virtuous cycle which, from 2014 onwards, led Italy to pay all its foreign debts and, in turn, become a creditor. A clear sign of a recovered financial strength, despite everything. At the end of the year, however, the current account deficit in the balance of payments should again appear on the horizon. We should go from a surplus of 2.4 per cent of GDP last year to a deficit of 0.8. This forecast may be marred by a pinch of optimism, given the current oil and gas prices: pathogens of the deterioration.
A great deal of rigor will therefore be required in the future use of available resources. The theory teaches that whenever there is a deficit in the external accounts, a tightening should be made to rebalance the macroeconomic framework. All the more necessary, given the high public debt. A choice, obviously, impossible in the current conditions of the country. But this does not mean that it will be possible to indulge in requests for budget deviations to meet the most varied requests. Even if justified from a social point of view.
It will therefore not be easy for the next minister of the economy to govern these conflicting pressures. The last politician who occupied what had been Quintino Sella's desk was the current mayor of Rome, Roberto Gualtieri, with Giuseppe Conte as Prime Minister. In 2020, the debt / GDP ratio increased by 21.1 percentage points. The highest leap forward since the early 1980s. An experience not only not to be repeated, but a warning to be placed at the top of every thought.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/giorgia-meloni-patriottismo-economico/ on Thu, 06 Oct 2022 13:27:21 +0000.