What will change after Russia’s loans to Lukashenko’s Belarus
Scope, effects and scenarios of the meeting in Moscow between Putin and Lukashenko, which obtained a loan of 1.5 billion dollars
A royal ceremony of yesteryear was staged in Sochi last Monday: the disgraced and (almost) ousted governor of the small province of Belarus went to pay homage to Tsar Putin I the Great who generously (but not too much) received, as a prodigal son is received; he granted him an onerous bill of exchange and his august – but only temporary – support. Ready to collect both in due time and without much ado.
But what did the shaky Belarusian dictator have to give Tsar Vladimir Vladimirovich in return?
In Sochi, on the Black Sea, Russia, Lukashenko was finally received in "audience" by Putin; in fact, it is enough to read, in the official photos depicting the two presidents, the language of the bodies to understand that it was a real audience graciously granted by the Tsar of all the Russias to the supplicant vassal in danger, now simply proconsul of the small oblast of Belarus.
Lukashenko has obtained from Putin a loan of $ 1.5 billion that will help it pay salaries to its security forces which keep him clinging to power, at least for now. And other things: above all, the promise that Russia will honor all commitments to its neighbor in distress, especially effective support if internal protests become unsustainable. A promise reinforced by joint military exercises in western Belarus inaugurated precisely at the same time as the Sochi meeting.
But the real question is: in the face of this precious Russian support, what did the shaky Lukashenko have to give Putin in return? Belarus itself? Is it possible that the little Belarusian dictator sold his country to the great Mother Russia, in exchange for his political and above all personal safety? It's possible. But probably not even this will be able to keep the Belarusian despot on his now lopsided throne of straw.
Many analysts, for example Andrei Kfortov of the Russian Council for International Affairs, believe that for Moscow Lukashenko is now a lame duck, and sooner or later he will fall, like a ripe fruit.
What is important for Putin is that it is not Belarus that falls into the Western sphere of influence: Moscow's priority strategic interest is that Minsk remains a buffer state between Russia and the EU / NATO, todo way in the sphere of Russian influence. Lukashenko is expendable for Putin. Belarus no. A Byzantine diplomat once said: "We have no friends, we only have interests". Russia is the daughter of Byzantium.
(post taken from Rosato's blog )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/che-cosa-cambiera-dopo-i-prestiti-della-russia-alla-bielorussia-di-lukashenko/ on Wed, 16 Sep 2020 05:26:06 +0000.