What will change (and will not change) in Germany on economic and foreign policy with the SPD
Theses of Italian analysts and study centers on the scenarios in Germany after the electoral results are not always convergent. What Ispi, Fabbri (Limes) and Galietti (Policy Sonar) think
The German elections saw, for the first time since the war, the two largest German parties do not exceed 30%. What is changing now for Germany, and what role can the "little" greens and liberals play?
The results of CDU-CSU
In the first round without Merkel, the CDU-CSU collected the worst result ever recorded, also testified by the success of the SPD in Berlin and in the constituency of Rügen in which the outgoing chancellor had won eight times in a row since 1990. " And it is a clear victory, that of the Social Democrats, who were also able to take advantage of the setbacks of the Greens in the electoral campaign – analyzes the ISPI -. The latter, on the other hand, who with Annalena Baerbock just a few weeks ago seemed to be heading towards the stationery , while collecting the best result ever (14.4%) and a kingmaker role to share with the liberals of the FDP, pay the price of errors and uncertainties ". The polls have returned a jagged political landscape , for the new government it will be essential to include the Greens and the Liberals, forming a coalition 'at traffic lights' or 'Jamaica' ”.
The weight of Verdi and liberals
What opens now is a difficult negotiating phase to form a coalition, which could last weeks or even months. According to the analyst Francesco Galietti (founder of Policy Sonar) from the German elections it emerges that it will be Greens and liberals who will give the cards for the next four years. “These parties have collected fewer votes than the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats , but they still have enough consensus to be indispensable in the formation of the new majority – writes the analyst in“ La Verità ”-. There is more: whoever wants to compose a government will have to embark both parties, and not just one of the two. Many believe this will further complicate the negotiations, and many comments over the next few days will insist on the numerous pitfalls on the way to the next German government. The Greens, in fact, have declared that they prefer the government with the SPD, while the liberals traditionally prefer the condominium with the Christian Democrats ”.
Differences and similarities between Greens and Liberals
Differences and similarities run through the greens and liberals of Germany. "On a programmatic level, the Greens present themselves as a spending party, while the liberals embrace the positions of the German deep state , and in particular those of the Bundesbank, traditionally perched on the rigor of public accounts and on very different rate policies from the current line of the European Central Bank – Galietti says again -. There are, of course, differences. But there is no lack of commonalities. What unites Greens and liberals in Germany is above all the very strong hostility towards China, starting from the continuous and very serious Chinese policies of repression of civil liberties and human rights, and Beijing's lack of respect for the environment ”.
Merkel's mercantilism
The long years of Merkel-led chancellorship brought the CDU closer to centrist positions, making it more difficult to create center-right governments. “On the geopolitical level, the Grosse Koalition (GroKo), a real trademark of Merkelism , has translated into a substantial commercialism – writes Galietti -. The winks towards Russia, a contemporary reflection of Bismarck's traditional Eurasian heel-toe, were joined by those towards China for years . Too much, even for German pragmatists. Today it is the German industrial community first of all that grasps the need for a dip in the Indo-Pacific. For months, in fact, the German economic elite. established that Beijing is struggling with strong internal pressure and is experiencing a phase of introversion. The German industrial summit has understood this and encourages German politics to make a change in relations with Beijing ”.
The role of the Hanseatic Rhenish tribes
The results of the German elections have changed nothing. This is the tranchant opinion of Dario Fabbri, a geopolitical analyst at Limes . “Germany keeps its dominant canon for what it is. A country that is enormously inhomogeneous internally but which pretends to be homogeneous – says Fabbri in his weekly point on Limes -. From the Second World War onwards, the different tribes that historically make up Germanic culture have had a different portion of power. In the Federal Republic, ie in the western part, the Rhine-Hanseatic stock has dominated since then, in the GDR it was the Prussian stock which is no longer so called, now it is called the "Eastern" one . With the annexation of the GDR to the federal republic, the Rhine-Hanseatic stock remained at the head, after the Cold War, with some westaflian filaments. Therefore, the Bavarian and Prussian ones have always been removed from the ranks of the powerful "
Maintaining the balance of power
The elections therefore confirm the balance of power. “In this election, once again, the Hanseatic Rhine family remains to dominate, embodied in this case by what should be the new chancellor Olaf Scholz , a gentleman who grew up in Hamburg and represents that canon – continues Fabbri -. The distinctions between Christian Democrats and Social Democrats do not exist, they are two almost identical parties at this stage. Scholz is the natural heir of Angela Merkel although she belongs to the other party . During the leadership war within the Christian Democrats, the Bavarian candidate was once again defeated, although Markus Soder , though, was clearly more popular than Laschet who won the leadership as Angela Merkel's formal successor. Because it is important? Because Markus Soder is a Bavarian and once again that part has been removed from power ”.
The golden stasis of Germany
Another aspect on which Dario Fabbri reflects is the role of Germany in relations with other powers. " Germany does not want to grow, it is fine like this , it is the economic leader of Europe, it has a very high quality of life, it is within the American camp to which it had to leave security availability after the Second World War and the Cold War, it maintains relations with Russia for energy reasons and with China for commercial reasons. The elections confirm exactly this – explains Fabbri -. A year ago Germany agreed to shoulder the main burden of the Next Generation EU guaranteeing the issue of bonds by the European Commission in front of the financial markets but it does not want to go beyond this. It does not want to establish an imperial inspiration within the Eurozone, guaranteeing for all others indefinitely. This which is evident is confirmed by another exploit, that of the liberal democrats who want a return to austere austerity . So they are saying “attention we are guaranteeing at this stage but we will not guarantee forever. We don't want to redistribute wealth like an empire does ”. This is what emerges from the elections ”.
The weight of the USA
The desire for German immobility can be realized. The answer that Fabbri gives to this question is not positive. "Most likely in the next few years it will be others who will press on Germany, put it in front of some choices that it does not want to take – says Fabbri in the weekly point -. First of all, the United States, which in the short term will continue to press on Berlin to choose, take a clear position. The US has agreed to complete the doubling of the Nord Stream gas pipeline so that Germany would at least partially move away from China with which it has special commercial relations and to which it would like to lead the new Silk routes. The US will return to press on this as they will also return to special energy relations with Russia, but the US will not be the only ones to impose a change of maturity on the Federal Republic ”.
Berlin's position towards Europe
In the European Union, as ISPI writes, a season of profound reflections is about to open and the position of Berlin will be decisive in deciding the direction: ranging from the revision of the Stability Pact , the hottest and most delicate dossier, to environmental policies and the energy transition, relations with the United States, relations with China and Russia just to name a few . Without forgetting internal issues that will inevitably end up influencing the rest of the continent: fiscal policy, the minimum wage, security.
The pressures of Italy and France
But the pressure on Germany will not only come from the other side of the Atlantic but it will also be Italy and France that will ask Germany to take on a role in Europe. “ Why a possible return to austerity it will force Paris and us to remind Germany that its health also depends on ours and vice versa – concludes Fabbri -. So we will see considerable Franco-Italian pressure on Germany not to go back to what it was before the pandemic, at the time of the Greek crisis because if Germany can afford not to choose us, it won't . So what the German elections leave us is a golden stasis within Germany that will clash in the coming years with those who cannot afford this luxury: USA, France and Italy ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/che-cosa-cambiera-e-non-cambiera-in-germania-su-politica-economica-ed-estera-con-lspd/ on Sun, 10 Oct 2021 06:03:35 +0000.