What will Putin really do? Facts, words and analysis
Conversation of Marco Orioles with Marta Ottaviani, Russian expert journalist and author of the book “Russian Brigades. The Kremlin's hidden war between trolls and hackers ”, on Putin's latest threats.
He is an extremely gloomy Putin, the one who spoke to the nation yesterday morning through the waves of state TV, threatening to resort to nuclear weapons in the event of an attack on the territorial integrity of Russia and ordering the partial mobilization of reserves to replenish the contingent involved. in military operations in Ukraine.
This is "the biggest escalation" since the day the invasion began, writes Reuters of an inspired speech, this is unclear, from the determination to achieve the goals set in this war – "liberation," he said. the Tsar, of the four Ukrainian provinces where special referendums will be held between 23 and 26 September that Russia "supports" – or out of desperation for the failures on the ground by its soldiers.
To analyze and contextualize Putin's words, Start Magazine interviewed the journalist Marta Ottaviani, one of the leading Italian experts in Russia and author of the recent book Russian Brigades. The Kremlin's hidden war between trolls and hackers , published by Ledizioni.
Nuclear threats
The most striking part of the speech of the head of the Kremlin is undoubtedly the one dedicated to nuclear weapons.
Amid constant references to the threats posed to Russia by the West that aims to bring Russia to disintegration, Putin made an explicit reference to the possibility of resorting to the final weapon. “If the territorial integrity of our country were threatened”, the leader thundered, “we would undoubtedly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people”. "This is not a bluff," he remarked.
Accusing senior NATO officials of indulging in statements about "the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction against Russia", Putin urged: "To those who allow such statements about Russia, I want to remind you that our country it has various means of destruction, which in some components are more modern than those possessed by NATO countries ”.
And again, to reiterate the concept, the Russian president turned again to NATO, saying that "those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind can change in their direction".
But how seriously should Putin's words be taken? This is the question that we turn to Ottaviani, who answers us, cautiously, that "it is really out of place to make predictions at this moment on a situation that is evolving from hour to hour and that has been evolving since its origin" – Ottaviani replies – " We have to think that this was originally supposed to be a lightning operation, then Putin was not supposed to attack and instead attacked, and finally the operation is taking much longer than expected. So I wouldn't go for predictions. What I can say is that the nuclear weapon has always been used by Russia as a deterrent weapon. But above all ", underlines the journalist and essayist," Putin cannot decide to use the nuclear weapon in a complete and autonomous way because the credentials and authorization levels to take such a step are not completely in his hands ".
Putin's rhetoric
What is behind the invention of alleged NATO statements in which the use of nuclear weapons against Russia is mentioned?
“I believe”, replies the expert, “that this is a clear example of the reversal of the reality that the Russians operate when they have to justify offensive actions by making them pass as a defense against an attack by others. And this is a very important detail that we have not yet fully understood ”.
Putin, Ottaviani observes, “is basically saying that it is actually NATO that is attacking us and that is why I mobilize a part of the people ready to fight. Putin needs to convince his people ”.
In this regard, the journalist recalls that “at the moment 48% of the Russian population is opposed to the special military operation in Ukraine for various reasons, and above all is much more inclined to consider the national economy which is deteriorating. I therefore believe that Putin must necessarily rely on the patriotic spirit of the nation also to hide the defaults in the economic field that this military operation has caused due to the sanctions. The problem is how far he will succeed. Personally I think very little ".
The 'partial' mobilization
In his speech, Putin also announced that he had just formed a decree indicating "partial mobilization", with an announcement that immediately sent the Russian population and especially the young people into panic who, in the hours following the speech, tried in large numbers. escape from the country.
The mobilization, the Kremlin number 1 tried to clarify , will involve "only the citizens who are currently in the reserve" and in particular "those who have served in the armed forces (and) have certain military capabilities and relevant experience".
As the Defense Minister Sergej Shoigu pointed out, the mobilization will affect about 300,000 men, that is only a fraction of the vast reserves on which the army can count, calculated in about 25 million units.
What goals does Putin set himself? “My idea”, notes the journalist, “is that in reality Russia does not have the availability of human capital, let's call it that, but also of the arsenal necessary to maintain a general mobilization. I must also say that an economic discourse should also have been made with regard to a general mobilization that worried both the Minister of the Economy and the Russian Central Bank ”.
"In reality then", adds Ottaviani, "the same is true for the partial mobilization operation: if you look closely at the decree, this is a very masked military mobilization, because the rules of engagement and the terms under which one can appeals to be exempted are very labile and broad as regards compulsory conscription and very narrow as regards those who can not go to war. So I would call it partial mobilization but with the partial in quotation marks ".
The referendums
In his speech, Putin then stated that he supported the initiative to hold referendums for the annexation of the provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia,explaining how Russia is committed to "ensuring the conditions for the people to express their will"
Tuto would therefore suggest that a scenario similar to what happened in Crimea in 2014 is being envisaged, when the population of that territory was summoned to the polls and expressed their consent to the annexation to the Russian Federation with a percentage of 97%.
But Ottaviani appears skeptical of the comparison, arguing that "Crimea was conquered in an absolutely intelligent way, following a type of non-linear warfare where practically very few men were employed, moreover non-regular troops, and there was no of blood, the waste of human and economic capital that we have instead had in this special military operation in Ukraine ”.
“I would therefore say that”, concludes the author of the Russian Brigades , “the differences are really many; the only thing is that the referendums will end the referendum on Crimea, so they will not be considered by the international community, but in the end they will have cost Russia much more ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/putin-ottaviani/ on Thu, 22 Sep 2022 06:29:19 +0000.