Will bipolarism rise again with the elections in Madrid in Spain?
The analysis by Maria Elena Cavallaro, professor of History of International Relations at the Luiss School of Government , on the elections in Madrid
Today, May 4, in Spain there is a vote for the Autonomous Community of Madrid, or the Iberian region in which the country's capital is located. An important electoral test, first of all, because it is held in the third most populous region (6.7 million inhabitants out of a total of 47 million) and in the first richest region (20% of national GDP) of the country, the one that hosts 72% of 2,000 largest Spanish companies.
WHAT IS DISCUSSED IN MADRID
Also for the demographic and economic importance of the Autonomous Community of Madrid, there is no lack of possible national and even systemic repercussions of this vote. In a nutshell, we could say that the Popular Party and the Socialist Party implicitly bet on a possible return to pre-2019 bipolarism, while the two most radical parties – Vox on the right and Podemos on the left – are gambling on whether or not to stay on national scene with a decisive role in influencing the policies of the respective coalitions.
HOW IS THE POPULAR PARTY
Let's start with the situation of the Popular Party. The President of the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Isabel Diaz Ayuso, has declared in advance the end of the legislature, convinced that she can capitalize on her anti-pandemic strategy. According to the polls, the Popular Party is actually ahead of all challengers, having almost doubled the consensus compared to the last round of local elections in 2019. Ayuso, as already mentioned, has become the champion of the catering and tourism sectors hotel, but also of important pieces of the world of culture; in fact, after the first wave of the pandemic, bars and restaurants in Madrid no longer had to lower their shutters (obviously in the presence of anti-contagion protocols and in a situation of much stronger regional powers than in Italy). Pandemic aside, the Popular Party has been leading this region continuously for 26 years. What are the news, then? First of all, the possibility that, in a moment in which it is decided which strategy to adopt for the relaunch of the Iberian economy, the "Madrid model" could also become expendable at a national level, so much so as to oppose the responses judged weak and uncertain by the central executive -left. Furthermore, these elections could bring about a change of balance in the center-right coalition. When Pablo Casado became President of the Popular Party (PP) in 2018, the popular appeared exhausted by a complicated government experience and a series of financial scandals. Casado, also for this reason, has never closed the door to dialogue with the radical right of Vox – born in 2013 from a rib of the PP – which in recent years has instead appeared rampant. Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, has achieved important results at the local level: in Andalusia, with its unexpected result at the end of 2018, it changed the history of a region that for 40 years had voted to the left, leading to the government from the leader Abascal for the Vox candidate in Madrid, Rocío Monasterio.
PRESENT AND FUTURE OF CIUDADANOS
If in the center-right we are witnessing changing power relations, this is also due to the progressive disappearance of the liberals of Ciudadanos, a movement which in Italy too had aroused a lot of interest and even some attempts at emulation. In the elections of April 2019, Ciudadanos touched 16% of the electoral consensus, only to be more than halved in the subsequent consultations in November, probably punished for having appeared too "centrist" and wavering between Popular and Socialists. The attempt to present itself as a post-ideological party was perceived as a betrayal of the liberal soul that had characterized the movement at its foundation. Not even the change of leadership, with Albert Rivera's step backwards, was therefore not enough to stop the return of many Ciudadanos voters to the parent company of Spanish conservatism, that is, in the Popular Party. Another small but important contribution to a possible bipolar realignment of the Spanish political system.
THE STATE OF THE SOCIALIST PARTY
Now let's see what happens to the left of the political spectrum. Both the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Podemos suffer physiologically from the responsibility of government. The figure of Pedro Sánchez, President of the Government, is also affected by the attempt by the leader of the PSOE to practice a sort of "politics of the two ovens". He leaned on Podemos in search of parliamentarians to form a majority and in search of more maximalist voters, especially on economic and social issues; at the same time, on a relevant and divisive issue such as Catalonia and autonomy, he made a splash with the liberals of Ciudadanos. Except now both of Sánchez's "crutches" are wobbling. Of Ciudadanos, we have already said.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN PODEMOS?
As for Podemos, the Madrid one could be the battle of life. Or rather, of survival. It is no coincidence that the charismatic leader of the radical left, Pablo Iglesias, resigned as Vice-President of the national government to run for the presidency of the Community of Madrid, and at the same time announced the handover of the party secretariat to Yolanda Diaz, deputy from Podemos and current Minister of Labor of the government in office. Podemos formally takes a step back, but in essence he managed to dictate the tone of the center-left coalition's campaign. The PSOE in fact has its candidate, Ángel Gabilondo, brother of Inaki who is one of the best known journalists in Spain, but the common strategy of PSOE and Podemos (with the support of a minor civic list, "Más Madrid") seems above all that of mobilizing the electorate of the left against a right labeled as a "danger to democracy" or even a harbinger of a return of "fascism". Together with the references to the “communist” danger agitated by Vox's right wing, the bright tones – at times violent – which we have witnessed in recent weeks can easily be explained. The extreme polarization in a radical anti-right key had its strength in 2019, when Vox unexpectedly won 15% of the votes and was perceived by many Spaniards as a not insignificant danger for Iberian democracy.
WILL BIPOLARISM RE-RISE IN SPAIN?
In conclusion, while the extremes – Vox and Podemos – have overheated the tones of the electoral campaign for the Autonomous Community of Madrid, even evoking the failure of the democratic transition of the second half of the seventies of the last century, the Popular Party has tried to gain accreditation with a conservative and dynamic platform, challenging the uncertainty about the pandemic and the excesses of welfarism that it attributes to the socialist-led central government, with the hope – not too hidden – of resurrecting Iberian bipolarism. A few more hours and we will see if the bipolar temptation of the Spanish political system will have prevailed also among the Madrid voters.
(Extract of an analysis published in Luiss School of Government ; here the full analysis )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/con-le-elezioni-a-madrid-in-spagna-risorgera-il-bipolarismo/ on Tue, 04 May 2021 10:02:30 +0000.