Draghi pushes for confirmation of Macron at the Elysée?
Facts and scenarios on the Italy-France Treaty. Tino Oldani's comment for ItaliaOggi
Without knowing its content, which is still secret, journalists and newscasts have been extolling the Quirinale Treaty between Italy and France for days. An act of faith worthy of a democracy, not of a parliamentary democracy.
Among the very few critical voices, ItaliaOggi clearly explained, thanks to Carlo Pelanda and Pierluigi Magnaschi , which are the unacceptable aspects of this Treaty from a geopolitical and European point of view: in essence, Italy's submission to Emmanuel Macron's desire for grandeur , in the illusion of creating an alternative to German hegemony in the European Union, following the departure of Angela Merkel. But what sense does it make today to indulge this desire for grandeur, typical of French political culture from Charles De Gaulle onwards? Why would a charismatic figure like Mario Draghi , who in the world enjoys a higher prestige than Macron, accept such a part in comedy?
In five months in France there will be a vote for the election of the President of the Republic: why no one doubts that this Treaty, due to the media echo that accompanies it and the timing chosen for signing, is an assist to Macron in his campaign for the Elysée? After all, that Macron needs some help, especially the media, to stay in the saddle, the facts say so, these are in the public domain: the French economy is doing badly, struggling to recover after the pandemic; the French, then, do not seem to be crazy about Macron. On the contrary.
According to the polls: Macron is still in the lead, with about 25% of the votes in the first round. But the right-wing electorate, albeit divided, could have surprises in store for the second round if they join. The far right, adding the consensus of Marine Le Pen and that of its surprising rival Eric Zemmour, has put together a 35% stake, which is unprecedented for this political area. As a result, the Gaullist center-right of the Républicains, who is internally divided into several names and has not yet chosen his own candidate, risks finishing fourth and would be excluded from the ballot between the first two, as happened in 2017. But the discontent social media, the protests of the yellow vests, the insufficient recovery of the economy and the increase in the cost of living could act as a glue between all anti-Macron voters, and the appeals of the intelligentsia not to vote for the far right, which in the past have always prevailed, this time may not be enough.
By examining Macron's strengths and weaknesses, Bloomberg argues that the economy will be decisive in the race for the Elysée. Recently, the French Central Bank revised the estimates on the growth of the national economy, increasing the forecast for 2021 GDP from + 6.3% to + 6.7%, which was however lower than the contraction of 8.2% in 2020. . The rebound is supported by a sharp increase in public spending, increased with the launch of a plan of 100 billion (of which 40 from the EU Recovery Plan), which has pushed the debt / GDP ratio to 120%, the third highest. in Europe, after Greece and Italy. However, all this has not reduced unemployment, which has always risen in the last two years (7.8% in 2020; 8.3% in 2021), with the forecast to rise to 9.2% next year. The negative result of the manufacturing sector is worrying: minus 1.4% on a monthly basis, against an expected increase of 0.4%. A performance lower than that of Italy, where manufacturing is constantly recovering, despite the post-pandemic procurement difficulties.
In response to criticism from opponents, Macron tries to assert some results obtained. Among them, Bloomberg remembers “the abolition of the wealth tax, which conservative rivals had tried unsuccessfully when they were in power. In addition, it has made the conditions for receiving unemployment benefits more stringent ”. To those who blame him for low growth and the high cost of living, the French president justifies himself "with the fact that the economic recovery has been hampered by hiring difficulties for companies, by global tensions on supply chains, and by inflation caused by the shortage of materials and the increase in their price ".
The French government, despite the nuclear power plants, was also put under pressure by the increase in electricity prices, which rose to 172.58 euros per megawatt hour, with an increase in October of 27% compared to the previous month. To stop the protests, he froze the gas bills of 38 million French people, with a bonus of 100 euros per person. In addition, to appease the protests of the sectors most affected by the pandemic, it has allocated 300 million for self-employed workers, 50 million for restoring exporters affected by Brexit and, with a targeted political calculation, one and a half billion euros for the city of Marseille. one of the most affected by social unrest, but also the epicenter of lepenism in the South of France.
The arrows of the opposition parties are aimed at popular themes. A part of the Gaullists Républicains accuse Macron of being too liberal. Other Gaullist candidates argue the exact opposite, accusing Macron of being too statist, without however being able to carry out the pension reform, nor that of the working hours of 35 hours per week. On the left, Socialists, Greens and Communists complain instead of a lack of commitment to the energy transition. A trend that Macron has recently decided to ride, together with that of European defense and telecommunications, with the usual ambition of making, at least in words, the first of its class in Europe. And getting your hands on Italy in these sectors would help you a lot in the race for the Elysée.
Article published by ItaliaOggi
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/draghi-spinge-macron-per-una-conferma-eliseo/ on Fri, 26 Nov 2021 08:47:09 +0000.