War in Ukraine, how and why Russia advances in the Donbass
After Soledar, Russia went deeper into the Donbass, up to Krasnopolivka. Ukraine is in trouble. All the updates in the point of Pietro Batacchi, director of Rid ( Italian Defense Review)
After weeks of substantial stalemate, the front in Donbass has started to move significantly.
After the conquest of Soledar, an important logistic hub for the Ukrainian defense arrangement in the area, the forces of Moscow, in particular the militiamen of the Wagner Group, advanced deep north-west of the city and pushed as far as Krasnopolivka, taking its control.
THE HOTTEST FRONTS IN DONBASS
Krasnopolivka is less than 20 km from Siversk, further north, where at this point the position of the Ukrainians becomes more difficult, considering that by now the communication routes between Siversk and Soledar/Bakhmut are practically under the control of the forces of Moscow (the railway is already under Russian control, while the T0513 would not have been "reached" by them yet), and this obviously relieves the Ukrainian pressure on Kreminna.
A little further south, between Bakhmut and Soledar, near Krasna Hora, intense fighting is taking place between Ukrainian forces and Russian VDV paratroopers. The front south of Bakhumt is also on the move. From Klishchiivka, captured in recent days, Russian reconnaissance is pushing further west to Stupochky (just over 5 km from Chasiv Yar), and further north towards Ivanivske. Chasiv Yar is currently a key Ukrainian logistics hub and the central pivot of the Kostantinovka-Chasiv Yar-Kramatorsk defense line, and is connected to Kostantinovka by the T0504 "expressway", which passes right by Stupochky.
Moving further south, the Zaporizhia front, the Russians have begun to press hard on Orikhiv with reconnaissance in recent days and have advanced along the large bend in the Dnieper up to Kamyanske, 43 km southeast of the city of Zaporizhzhia. The 2 cities are connected by the E105 (M18) highway, an important logistic artery for the Ukrainian system in the area, which also connects Zaporizhzhia with Melitopol and reaches as far as Crimea.
A DIFFICULT TIME FOR UKRAINE
The moment is certainly difficult for the Ukrainians, and Western military supplies demonstrate it, which have made a real leap in quality – LEOPARD 2, SAMP/T, PATRIOT, BRADLEY, STRYKER, etc.
Moreover, the Russian mobilization – by the way, many sources tell us that there are more than 300,000 mobilized, but we have no confirmation in this regard – has somewhat rebalanced the situation on the ground, where the numerical superiority of the Ukrainians, due to the various waves of mobilization in country, had been a decisive factor in the war from June until November.
To this we add the fact that Bakhmut and Soledar have grinded a lot of resources for the Ukrainians, who have been forced to withdraw troops and means from other fronts, and that the autumn counter-offensive of Kherson itself has been very onerous for the forces of Kiev. The uncertainty of the Russian aero-missile campaign weighs on everything. In January, at the moment, there has only been one major attack against the country's infrastructure, that of January 14, then nothing since then.
What does this mean? We will understand it better in the coming weeks.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/russia-donbass-avanzata/ on Thu, 26 Jan 2023 08:40:26 +0000.