Beijing on the banks of the river in Ukraine: Xi tries to dictate the rules, Biden to draw a red line
No change in China's position after two hours of videocall: wait on the river bank, accuse the US and NATO (you pushed Putin to war, it is up to you to resolve) and warns about sanctions and Taiwan. We are at a crossroads …
It would be dangerous for the United States and its allies to misinterpret China's position on the conflict in Ukraine and to delude itself that it could turn in their favor. In clear terms: expect Beijing to induce Putin to stop or even dump him.
Seven hours of talks between US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and the Chinese Communist Party's foreign officer Yang Jiechi, Wednesday in Rome, and two hours of video conversation yesterday between President Biden and President Xi Jinping did not move Beijing. and the two governments remained on their already known positions. Washington threatens unspecified "consequences" if China helps Russia and says it has reason to believe it is ready to do so. Beijing accuses the US and NATO of pushing Putin to war and remains at the window. On the other hand, it would benefit from both a victory for Russia and its bogging down in Ukraine.
A Putin victory would be the demonstration that the European order can be changed for the first time since the Berlin crisis against the interests of the West. And if the European one is, consequently the world one is too. If it is possible to stop and even pull back US and EU influence in Europe, this is all the more possible on a global level. Music to the ears of a revisionist power like China, which aims to undermine the leadership of the United States first in Asia and then in the world.
In the less probable case of defeat in Ukraine, Russia would be greatly reduced by its president's gamble, tearing relations with the West, and could only lean on China by ratifying its status as junior partner in the axis of autocracies. , a lethal embrace, which would definitively dismantle its superpower ambitions. But in our opinion this is the hypothesis that they least hope for in Beijing, for two reasons. First, the American order in Europe would emerge strengthened by the challenge, rather than weakened, and consequently also the credibility of the US leadership on a global level. Second, such a sudden collapse of Russia's international standing could trigger a period of internal instability in Moscow that would have repercussions on the Eurasian bloc. And such a hasty landslide towards the East could induce the Russians to break free from the Chinese embrace. A possible fall of Putin would produce results that are difficult to predict, including the rise of a leadership intent on rebalancing Russia's relations with China and the West towards the latter.
Third hypothesis, not to be excluded: if the crisis were to remain in some way suspended, unresolved, even after the end of hostilities, it would be an open wound in Europe, to the benefit of Beijing, in which it would see energy absorbed – military, economic and also mental – both of its rivals, the United States, and of its still bulky ally, Russia.
This is why we believe it unlikely that China will decide to intervene in one direction or another, to stop Putin or to support him. She recognizes the reasons for this, because this allows her to call into question the responsibilities of the United States and NATO, but would only intervene if things get too bad for Moscow.
From the official accounts of the conversation between Biden and Xi, nothing has emerged that suggests a change in the Chinese position or that suggests a mediating role for China to find a diplomatic solution. Beijing remains at the window, perhaps to put its hat on "peace" after the fact. But for now she is sitting on the proverbial bank of the river waiting to see whose corpse is passing …
President Biden reiterated the request to Xi, already made through Sullivan, to take an active part in a diplomatic solution to the crisis. And he described, reports the White House, "implications and consequences" that China would face if it provided "material support to Russia". Although we do not know what they are, it is evidently a red line drawn by Biden. Whether Beijing will want to test Washington's determination to enforce it remains to be seen.
Xi Jinping then sent back the request to condemn the Russian invasion and work to stop it, sending the ball back to the US court. President Xi, according to the Chinese media, urged all parties involved "to jointly support the dialogue and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine". In particular, "the United States and NATO should conduct a direct dialogue with Russia to resolve the problems behind the Ukrainian crisis" and "the security problems of both Russia and Ukraine". In short, you pushed Putin to invade, it is up to you to solve the problem, this is the meaning.
In addition to holding the US and NATO responsible for the war, embracing the theses of the Kremlin, Xi also said he was against sanctions, blaming the United States for the damage they are causing to the global economy: "Indiscriminate and far-reaching sanctions would only make people suffer . With a further escalation, they could trigger serious crises in the global economy and in trade, finance, energy, food and supply chains, paralyzing the world economy already in crisis and causing irreparable losses ”. “The more complicated the situation, the more it is necessary to remain calm and rational”. By implication, the US is acting recklessly and irrationally.
But Xi Jinping also wanted to dictate his rules in US-China bilateral relations. Here the message is even more subtle if possible: stop pointing to us as bad if you want our collaboration. Our relations, he told Biden, have not yet emerged from the difficult situation created by the previous US administration, instead "they have encountered more and more challenges". A situation "directly due to the fact that some people in the United States have not implemented the important consensus reached between the two of us". "The United States has misinterpreted and misjudged China's strategic intentions," complained Xi. "The long-term solution lies in mutual respect between the major powers, in abandoning the Cold War mentality, in not engaging in confrontations and in the gradual construction of a balanced global and regional security architecture."
Of course, there was no lack of the Taiwan theme. Here Xi's tone has become harsher: "If the Taiwan issue is not handled well, it will have a subversive impact on relations between our two countries." Biden reportedly reiterated that "US policy on Taiwan has not changed and stressed that the US continues to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo." Here it appears that the red line was drawn by Xi.
Biden would also have assured, but according to Chinese sources, therefore to be taken with a grain of salt, that the United States does not support "Taiwan independence" and is not seeking a new Cold War with China, nor to modify the Chinese system, nor to revitalize alliances against Beijing. "I take these statements very seriously," said President Xi.
We are at a crucial junction. The war in Ukraine can deal a potentially lethal blow to the European – and perhaps even global – security structure and push US-China relations definitively towards a new Cold War. Ukraine is therefore proving to be much more strategic than previously thought.
The post Beijing by the river on Ukraine: Xi tries to dictate the rules, Biden to draw a red line appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/pechino-in-riva-al-fiume-sullucraina-xi-prova-a-dettare-le-regole-biden-a-tracciare-una-linea-rossa/ on Sat, 19 Mar 2022 03:48:00 +0000.