Biden gives Putin the new Yalta he dreamed of. But will it be enough to remove Moscow from Beijing?
The US president opens to negotiations with Russia (and the main NATO allies) on security in Eastern Europe: guarantees on the end of NATO expansion to the east, Moscow's request
Putin has fielded a credible threat of invasion of Ukraine and Biden has dropped his pants, threatening sanctions "never seen before", but in fact making for the first time within reach of the Russian president the geopolitical objective of a whole life: halt the expansion of NATO to the east. Starting, of course, from Ukraine.
Putin was able to take advantage of the American moment of weakness. The de facto green light for Nord Stream 2 , with Washington renouncing sanctions, then the disastrous flight from Afghanistan, were unequivocal signals of the US will to extricate itself from the theaters of crisis no longer at the top of strategic priorities, even at the price of sending the message not to be too scrupulous about downloading friends and allies.
The "never seen before" sanctions threatened by Biden in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine seem like the blunt weapons of those who, unable to play hard, have decided to bluff big time. Convincing Berlin to take back the Nord Stream 2 project, with Germany and the EU increasingly dependent on Russian gas, as shown by the last few weeks of energy crunch and skyrocketing prices, or to turn it into a weapon of pressure on Moscow, seems really difficult.
On the other hand, Putin realizes that he cannot waste any more time: in Ukraine the process of westernization, of institutions and of society, is proceeding rapidly. Perhaps this is the last chance to force events and not completely lose his grip on the country. Once it has guarantees that NATO will stop expanding to the east, it would not even need to invade it. The geopolitical inertia would be reversed and Kiev would be pushed to return to Moscow's sphere of influence, if the prospect of NATO membership and integration into Western Europe would be enough.
As reported by both the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal , the day after the conference call between the two leaders, President Biden ruled out the unilateral use of US force against Russia in the case of an invasion of Ukraine, while President Putin, while brandishing an invasion as a "provocation", he explained that he was responding to a creeping NATO threat and did not rule out an invasion or any military action ("Russia has the right to guarantee its security, in the medium and in the long term ").
"I said very clearly" to Putin that "if he invades Ukraine, there will be serious consequences … never seen economic consequences". "I am absolutely certain that he understood the message." But when asked about the possible use of US troops in defense of Ukraine, the US president replied that "it is not on the table". “We have a moral and legal obligation to our NATO allies should they attack. This obligation does not extend to Ukraine. It would also depend on what the rest of the NATO countries would be willing to do. But the idea that the United States will unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine does not exist at the moment ”.
To prevent the risk of an invasion of Ukraine, Biden hopes to announce high-level talks by Friday "to discuss the future of Russia's NATO concerns" and to understand "whether or not we can find some agreement to lower the temperature along the way. the eastern front ". Meetings not only between Washington and Moscow, but also extended "to at least four of our main NATO allies". The US president did not specify which ones, but in the past few hours he has spoken with the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy.
These words were probably toasted with champagne last night in the Kremlin. Any agreement that sanctions the end of NATO expansion to the east and limits the US military presence in Eastern Europe is for Moscow the achievement of a very long-term strategic goal.
It is not a mystery, the Russians have made it explicit over the last decade and even recently, on the eve of the virtual Biden-Putin summit: they feel threatened by a NATO ever closer to their borders and are demanding legal guarantees that exclude further expansions to the east (for example, with the admission of Ukraine) and deployments of troops and armaments that could be used to attack Russia from neighboring countries.
That now a US president is ready to open a dialogue on these concerns already seems a notable diplomatic success: "We assume that this time our concerns will at least be heard," Putin explained. “NATO infrastructure has inevitably drawn closer to our borders, and now we see missile defense systems in Poland and Romania. We have every reason to believe that the same will happen if Ukraine is admitted to NATO, but this time on Ukrainian territory. How can we not think about it, it would be a criminal inaction on our part, to look weakly at what is happening there ”. Putin added that he will send a draft security agreement to the United States "within a few days".
If you toast in Moscow, in Warsaw, Tallinn and Kiev you probably swear. Biden's reference to meetings between the United States, with its NATO allies (the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy), and Russia to discuss what in fact would be a new order for Eastern Europe resonates like a new Yalta. especially in the capitals of those countries that have suffered from the Yalta agreements and now fear that Putin will be able to obtain guarantees that will significantly affect their security.
"Under no circumstances should the debate on guarantees in the context of European security be allowed to take place," a senior NATO official from an Eastern European state told the Financial Times . Any hypothesis of compromise with Moscow "must be immediately cut at the root", he added, noting that this opinion would be shared by at least half a dozen EU member states.
The plan of the Biden administration is all too clear: to sacrifice Ukraine in order to cool the Eastern European front, to distance Moscow from Beijing and to be able to concentrate on China. It is not a groundless strategy, but it is extremely risky, far from realistic , and we do not think, at the moment, that Washington can lead it from a position of strength as it should.
"If the United States hesitates, Moscow will benefit and will capitalize on Iran and China," Walter Russell Mead warned a few days ago in the Wall Street Journal .
The world, observes the US political scientist, has not conformed to the expectations of the Biden administration: Russia "is not parked", Iran is not cooperating and China has not allowed itself to be involved or impressed.
"A Ukraine aligned with the West, and in particular with anti-Russian countries such as Poland and the Baltic Republics, is an unbearable humiliation and an unacceptable threat" for Moscow. But according to WRM, "Putin's new belligerence is an admission of Russian failure". All that is left in Moscow to convince the Ukrainians is economic pressure and military strength. However, he notes, "if the political situation inside Ukraine alarms Putin, the disorder and ineptitude of the West give him hope". In 2014, the West bowed its head when Moscow annexed Crimea and launched the offensive in the Donbass, merely reacting with economic sanctions and the exclusion of Russia from the G8. Today, notes WRM, "the United States seems weaker and Europe even more divided than in 2014". This is why the Russian president believes he can play a winning hand once again, with or without strength.
The White House and the State Department threaten "never seen" sanctions, military aid to Ukraine, but it would not be the first time that Putin has forced US leaders to make bombastic statements and then humiliate them, making them appear as empty rhetoric. The Obama administration was his favorite victim (suffice it to recall the "red lines" never maintained against the Syrian regime of Assad, supported by Russia).
For this, WRM suggests, “Biden has to make a clear decision. If he undertakes to help Ukraine integrate with the West, he will have to convince Putin that he is serious ”, deploying“ significant NATO forces in the country ”. Conversely, "if it does not think that Ukraine is worth the risk of a Cold War-style crisis with Russia, it must seek the most dignified retreat that Putin will allow."
In light of Tuesday's virtual summit and yesterday's statements, which exclude the first option, the Biden administration appears to be on the second path. Which, however, would be the worst, concludes WRM, "coming so soon after the Afghan disaster and at a time when many longtime allies doubt America's word":
“Russia would become more powerful and more contemptuous of the United States, while Iran and China will see Biden as a loser and adjust their policies accordingly. From a position of strength, the United States can, and must, offer Russia ways out of the crisis ”.
According to the US political scientist, “Russia has lost its battle for the heart of Ukraine. After encouraging Ukraine to side with the West for three decades, the only honorable way for America is to support Kiev ”.
The post Biden gives Putin the new Yalta he dreamed of. But will it be enough to remove Moscow from Beijing? appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/biden-regala-a-putin-la-nuova-yalta-che-sognava-ma-bastera-per-allontanare-mosca-da-pechino/ on Thu, 09 Dec 2021 00:27:10 +0000.