Biden’s realistic approach: Kiev sacrificed, space for European leaders
That Joe Biden was a foreign policy expert was already known. However, it is worth noting that his "minimalist" approach to the Ukrainian problem is less disastrous than many commentators are leaking. The elderly US president has in fact chosen to put several small moves on the table which, perhaps, led Putin to choose a less muscular strategy. Although it is too early to tell, as the Kremlin Tsar has often proved to be unpredictable.
From what we understand, the presence of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border now seems less threatening. Biden, as mentioned, has chosen to move with caution, sending small contingents to NATO countries, while reiterating that he is not willing to intervene directly in any conflict.
However, he invited American citizens to leave Ukraine and, at the same time, moved the embassy from Kiev to Lviv, which was once called Lwow and was on Polish territory, before the borders were redrawn at the end of the Second World War. . This is a very impressive move, as it recognizes that the Russians, if only they wanted to, could take over the current Ukrainian capital without too much effort. In short, a recognition of the great strength of the former Red Army, to which the Ukrainian armed forces could not offer valid resistance.
Biden also left a free hand to European leaders – and to Olaf Scholz in the first place – to speak with Putin and Lavrov in person. Another signal to make Europeans understand that they must stop invoking the American shield and take care of their interests directly.
The US president is aware that the main danger comes from Communist China and its intention to annex Taiwan, an action that the United States absolutely cannot allow on pain of losing its – already shaky – hegemony in the Pacific.
He also knows very well that he is at the head of a terribly divided country, with the Democrats who contest him and the Republicans in the middle of the ford, waiting for Trump's next moves. Nobody can predict what the Republican Party will look like in the next elections.
Squeezed between the pincers of Putin and Xi Jinping, the US can only buy time, hoping that the axis between the two autocrats will weaken (a prospect that is far from certain). Given their current conditions, on the other hand, they cannot hope to face the Russians and the Chinese at the same time, because they would risk losing the influence they still maintain globally.
Notwithstanding the fact that Ukraine cannot formally be prevented from joining NATO, Putin must be convinced that an invasion would involve too high a price, also considering the anti-Russian sentiments that animate a large part of the population, especially in the western part of the country. Putin, who is very shrewd, must have understood this. Ukraine is neither Belarus nor Kazakhstan, and the invasion risks being long and bloody. It is still not clear what Biden can offer the Tsar, perhaps an informal commitment not to welcome Kiev into the Atlantic Alliance. Also taking into account the energy dependence of the European Union on the Russian Federation.
Maybe everything will be proven wrong and we will really see the Moscow tanks spreading over the granary plains of the former Soviet Union. But it is a fact that Biden, with his long experience in foreign policy, has chosen a realistic approach that could be successful.
In the background remains the great weakness of the EU which, once again, is unable to present itself on the international scene as a power capable of imposing its own line. Nor could anything else be expected, given the way it was born and developed.
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This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/lapproccio-realista-di-biden-kiev-sacrificata-spazio-ai-leader-europei/ on Thu, 17 Feb 2022 03:53:00 +0000.