Draghi cannot be the man of “discontinuity”. The only alternative is a free-conservative center-right
There are a number of reasons that support Mario Draghi's executive support by the majority of the center-right. On the one hand, it is a decision that can make it possible to affect some important economic recovery choices. On the other hand, it prevents the left from managing decisive institutional changes (from the election of the president from the Republic to the potential reform of the electoral law) for the umpteenth time as "their thing".
At the same time, support for Draghi must be granted with a view to realism, without imagining that his rise to Palazzo Chigi is accompanied by who knows what disruptive reforming charge.
In fact, there are no conditions for the Draghi government to represent a strong discontinuity with respect to Count 2, first of all because it must still respond to a parliamentary majority within which the forces that supported the previous executive still play a numerically essential role.
But the problem does not only concern the balance of the current Parliament. It is Draghi himself who is a "man of the system", although he is probably in many ways a "first of the class" within the system.
Despite the illusions of some liberals, Mario Draghi remains a Keynesian who believes in the primary role of public spending as a stimulus to economic dynamics. His tenure at the ECB has shown how fundamentally he believes in monetary stimuli – in the central bank as a "cornucopia"; it is a type of approach to economics that hardly differentiates it from the Italian political mainstream . “Whatever it takes” is not, as some have thought, a pro-market slogan, on the contrary it is a phrase that maximally sums up a statist and interventionist approach.
Of course, Draghi is an "expert", he has the necessary competence and sensitivity to move adequately in the complex contexts in which the government must operate at the Italian and European level. It can be reasonably expected that he will be able, at the very least, to avoid the accidents and the most obvious mistakes that have characterized the Giallorossi government.
However, there may be strong doubts that the new government can bring to Italy a way of managing public affairs that is significantly healthier and more open to the market. The feeling is that the mandate of the former governor may actually have some success, but that this will not depend so much on a truly more virtuous approach, when on the greater ability to do "virtue signaling" – that is, the ability to maintain an appearance capable of to guarantee a higher reputation on the right tables.
In short, support for the Draghi government is certainly possible, for both political and tactical reasons, but it must be expressed without illusions and beatification, bearing in mind all the limits of the new phase that has opened.
It is a support, clearly, not without risks, which is based on the bet of being able to positively influence at least some aspects, with particular reference to restoring usability conditions to many important sectors of the economy.
If the choice of support for Draghi by Lega and Forza Italia certainly involves unease and potential contradictions, we must be aware that even the choice of the opposition – the one made by the Brothers of Italy – is not free from ideological risks.
The main one is that those on the right who choose to remain outside the perimeter of support for the former ECB governor do so with a view to capitalizing on the inevitable wear and tear of the government, without simultaneously elaborating a realistic political program for the "after".
The opposition's perspective could be to bet everything on "miraculous" political recipes that combine tax cuts and further increases in spending. A strategy that certainly can pay off in electoral terms, but which already immediately after the possible success of the center-right in the next elections would collapse in the face of the test of reality, in a way not different from how the entire political and programmatic system of the 5 Star Movement collapsed. .
The truth is that there are no “miraculous” alternatives to the scheme that Mario Draghi is putting in place. Instead, there would be serious alternatives, genuinely liberal-conservative , but these require the awareness that there can be no tax reduction policies that do not pass from a strong reduction in public spending and therefore from the rebalancing of the relationship between taxpayers and beneficiaries of taxes paid by first.
It is a narrow path, because it does not simply provide for an opposition that thrives on discontent, but instead requires us to be ready to start saying "uncomfortable" things and to open a series of "hard", "Thatcherian" conflicts, towards the constituencies that most defend public spending, in particular the assisted South, the public sector and the world of early and privileged pensions. To date, it is not certain that sufficient political courage exists for this type of path.
Probably this is one of the political phases in which more than being important "where you are" – in the government or the opposition – it is important "how you are". The real choice facing the center-right – both the government and the opposition ones – is whether to limit themselves to "navigating" this new political season on the basis of short-term considerations essentially oriented to the vote of 2023 (or 2022 in case of early elections), or whether to propose an effective offensive in terms of content to have more market, more development, less state and less public spending.
The post Draghi cannot be the man of "discontinuity". The only alternative is a liberal conservative center-right appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/draghi-non-puo-essere-luomo-della-discontinuita-lunica-alternativa-e-un-centrodestra-liberalconservatore/ on Wed, 17 Feb 2021 05:02:00 +0000.