Draghi’s and Salvini’s options so as not to end up like cats on the ring road
The new government – The Draghi government was born from Renzi's victory in the name of Europe and is a crew exemplified by the presence of Daniele Franco (the man who wrote the Trichet-Draghi letter to Berlusconi of 5 August 2011), Speranza (the lockdown man), Lamorgese (the migrant woman). A government of the president (of the Republic), of that Mattarella who: first defended Conte by threatening elections; then he directed the consultations by appointing explorer Fico instead of Casellati; then she sought Draghi to be the nanny for the outgoing majority; then Russò waited silently; finally he obtained an assortment of sympathetic "technical" ministers (Cartabia), Prodiani (Bianchi) and Gretini (Giovannini, Cingolani, Colao), having satisfied Di Maio and Fico and continuing the permanent congress of the Democratic Party (Orlando-Guerini– Franceschini).
In the background, Mattarella and Draghi graciously obtained three stools for LegaNord and three for ForzaEuropa, intended for six new ministers chosen as Letta chose Alfano: to prevent them from leaving the executive in case the right decides to withdraw the support for the government. The offer was accepted, allegedly serving three political-political purposes. The first is to force the outgoing majority to renounce its own government: an end that has clearly failed from the start. The second, to conquer the guarantee of elections in 2022: but the quirinalists are already discussing an extension for Mattarella until 2023. The third, to conquer "the guarantee of being able to govern after an electoral victory": but Cassese already specifies that the League, if he wants to govern, he must devote himself to "world problems (global warming, global terrorism, ocean pollution, migratory phenomena)" … in short, if it wants to govern, the League must become the Democratic Party as Mieli had already explained. Furthermore, the League does not know the consequences of this political-politic choice in terms of economic and monetary policy. Sure, Draghi is a right-wing liberal, but Monti was too; Sure, a Draghi with only Pd-5S ministers would be a different thing from one without, but the decided majority of ministers are sympathetic to Pd-5S. Salvini had a simple question to ask Draghi: what will he do, the day the Recovery Fund's lies have fallen and the ECB purchases are over? A question that has not been asked, but the answer to which depends on what Draghi will do, in the meantime perched on an Indian reservation, made up of the delegation to European Affairs and of the appointed Franco, his faithful.
The Recovery Fund – Draghi itself does not speak: it has limited itself to reading the list of ministers, without adding a word. According to Cassese, Draghi came to settle the Stability Pact and the Recovery Fund (as well as the G20 presidency, and Cop26 co-presidency) with Brussels and Stefano Folli is categorical: "the priorities are two, linked to each other: the Recovery and the reforms to modernize a plastered Italy ". In fact, they are intertwined matches. The Recovery Fund contains the forecasts of the macroeconomic discipline (ie the claim of deflationary reforms). The forecasts of fiscal discipline (i.e. the claim of recessive austerity) are instead contained in the Stability Pact, of which the Commission unexpectedly accelerated the re-entry into force, after it was suspended last March due to Covid: it was intended not to it would be discussed to reintroduce it before next autumn, instead it will be discussed in March, in a month. Together we will talk about a proposal to reform the same Pact, but homeopathic: solely aimed at incorporating the 'Green deal' into the old pact. All this would have a greater recessive impact, compared to which the modest contribution theoretically offered by the legendary 209 euro billion of the Recovery Fund pales and makes Commissioner Gentiloni laugh when he accompanies his skimpy growth forecasts for Italy with the promise that they will turn into a "boom" [sic], when the legendary Recovery Fund will arrive. Therefore, some expect this to be Draghi's main front but, in fact, the current exchange (reform € and aust € rity in exchange for the Recovery Fund) is the one agreed by Conte last July , so there would be little to do here. . The Recovery Fund is a cat on the ring road.
The battlefield – However, things could be even worse as the economy and inflation in Berlin promise a strong recovery, says the Bundesbank. Therefore, the new chancellor who will replace Merkel after the political elections in September will very much want an end to the acquisitions of the ECB (QE-PEPP). That this means the split of the single Euro is evident to everyone. Starting with the Bundesbank and the Nederlandsche Bank who want nothing else, so we do not want to believe that it is not evident to German and Dutch politicians as well. Which, plausibly, prefer a controlled revaluation, rather than starting a Recovery Fund that they themselves have designed as a cat on the ring road, evocative of a Fiscal Union that repels their electorate.
Faced with the battle that is brewing, Northern Europe is already arranging its regiments, first of all by slowing down its national approval of the decision on its own resources, without which the Recovery Fund cannot even leave. Holland, in particular, will not approve it before the formation of its new government, following the political elections in mid-March, as even some Italian newspapers ( Il Manifesto , Huffington Post ) have now noticed. Last time, it took 225 days to form a government in The Hague – enough time to get through the German parliamentary elections in September. For that time, a footnote will be added to a Draghi willing to honor his part of the exchange agreed by Conte (reform € and aust € rity in exchange for Recovery Fund): in exchange for the Recovery Fund, reform € and aust are not enough € rity, but we also want an end to QE and PEPP. Exactly as it happened with the banking union , born as an exchange between bank supervision and European deposit insurance (Edis). After the Italians had already given the surveillance, the Germans added a footnote: in exchange for the Edis, we also want the Italian banks to download BTP (Risk Weight and ceilings) … and the matter ended with our unilateral transfer of the surveillance powers on banks without any Edis. This is the game plan of Rutte and the Germans.
Draghi's options – Well, Draghi knows this game very well from having him immediately as a protagonist. He needs to have formed his own government in order to be able to react in the same way as then: carefully listing the list of reforms and austerities in the task for Brussels; indicating its own Europhanatic ministers and the forthcoming Italian ratification of the New Mes Treaty (which also repels them) as proof of the Lega's public abjuration of anti-Europeanism and a promise of the “continuation of the integration process and the granting of sovereignty”; exposing himself as a human shield 'guarantor of the Italian will to stay in Europe'. But, in his heart, he knows that this is all for nothing, because, this time, the Germans really want an end to QE and PEPP.
As you know that, if the ECB stopped buying BTPs, Italy could no longer be in the Euro. Of course, unless we call the Full-Mes and be forced to restructure the BTP, that is the mass bail-in of the banks and a monstrous recession like Greece. But Draghi did not come for this, he explained it in Rimini .
To defend himself, Draghi could perhaps resurrect the alliance scheme he had within the ECB (a federal institution in which the Germans are forced to submit to the majority). In doing so, he could effectively keep at least QE and PEPP. But, in this case, Berlin would reactivate the not forgotten and still not enforced ruling of its own Constitutional Court of Karlsruhe and the ball would return to the center of the field.
Furthermore, this scheme of alliances would not be enough for him to launch the Recovery Fund (each national parliament having, at this stage, the right of veto); nor, subsequently, to obtain loans from the Recovery Fund (the Germans having, alone or with their satellites, the right of veto); nor to shake the EU in general (a confederal institution in which the Germans, alone or with their satellites, have the right of veto). Even if Draghi had coalesced the Italians and the French and a vast majority of Member States, he would only get to keep everything blocked: for Italy, between a Latin blocking majority and a Germanic majority there is, in practical terms, no difference. The dreams, also recently attributed to Draghi, of "overcoming the method of unanimity" are destined to remain so.
Cornered, Draghi could only take note of the foregoing and use his very fancy telephone book to dismantle the infernal single currency that he himself has contributed so much to build and defend. But he will do so only when he is forced to, no matter if in Chigi or at the Quirinale.
In the meantime, there is something tragic about this self-immolation of the "Best of Italians" for a cause he knows he has lost from the start. In this his transformation from omnipotent to cat on a ring road.
La LegaEuro – At the same time, there is something comic in the parallel sacrifice of the three Lega Nord ministers for a lost cause, but in which they firmly believe.
We wrote LegaNord, but better we would have said LegaEuro. Since the sentiment against the single European currency is too widespread in Northern Italy, too many savers have lost from the bail-in, too many banks have turned off the taps with the banking union, too many companies have lowered the shutter in the three crises of the last 14 years. Arousing a widespread, popular feeling of distrust towards what Draghi represents. A sentiment to which the Lega for Salvini was able to give a thoughtful answer, thanks to notable Eurosceptic exponents and ten years of lessons and NoEuro politics. Of all this, the LegaEuro does not seem to have noticed. Of course, the three ministers of the LegaEuro promise to spend the legendary 209 euro billion on businesses, artisans, VAT numbers and traders. But it will be curious to observe Garavaglia as he announces yet another lockdown ordered by his colleague Speranza to restaurateurs and bartenders, at the VAT numbers that the Recovery Fund funds are not mentioned this year as well. It will be intriguing to see Giorgetti defend plastictax Colao, urgent actions (global warming and its on desertification effects, rising oceans, fresh water reserves) of Cingolani, the new development model (electric-coworking-cycling mobility) Giovannini. It will be stimulating to contemplate Stèfani, while outside Oderzo he explains that the increase in cadastral rents on warehouses increases the fair and solidarity welfare index (Bes). Three cats on the ring road.
Salvini's League – Salvini is said to have been cut off from the informal part of the consultations, reserved by Mattarella and Draghi to Giorgetti: as can also be understood from the outcome. Giorgetti apparently thanked him: “thanks to you, because you put the party and consent in second place”. We do not know the answer of the person concerned, but we see how he, for now, enjoys provoking . He asks for "a robust change of pace on immigration" … in Lamorgese, "the reopening of bars, restaurants, gyms" … in Speranza. He says he is happy not to "look at a left-wing government from the outside" … as if it were better to look at it from the inside. He says, “I prefer to play the game than watch it from the stands”… but then he stays in the stands, he buys popcorn and Giorgetti lets us go to the government. So, Draghi's defeat would be the defeat of the LegaEuro, not necessarily Salvini's too. The latter also made it known that "in the League, the first and last word are mine". So that it is not a sin to imagine that … as Draghi comes forward with the lockdown , the fight against rising oceans, plastictax , cycling, cadastral rents and all the other reforms and aust € rity he will happen to expect … Salvini will find the opportunity to get away from it, leaving the LegaEuro to end the party of Alfano and the three ministers that of Angiolino. Failing that, the Salvini League will end up like the grillini.
The post Draghi's and Salvini's options to avoid ending up like cats on the ring road appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/le-opzioni-di-draghi-e-quelle-di-salvini-per-non-finire-come-gatti-in-tangenziale/ on Mon, 15 Feb 2021 05:01:12 +0000.