Dragons to Brussels to be an American with German money. But he will have to hurry to find an alternative
Mr. Draghi is trying to repeat the blow of 2020, making Ukraine the same use that was made of Covid , as then with French support and moreover, this time, also American. On Tuesday, he went to Brussels, where something called REPowerEU is being manufactured, intended to tackle the energy crisis. There, he would ask for "some compensation", rectius soldi.
He imagines them in the face of the costs incurred by Italy for sanctions and refugees , costs that he imagines are higher than those of the other Member States, since “not everyone is affected by this crisis in the same way. Europe needs to organize itself to help the countries most affected ”, that is, Italy, according to him. He gave the example of the vigor with which he practices kidnappings from the so-called oligarchs . Gentiloni has done another: re-igniting the coal plants "for Germany it is easier, but not for Italy". But he could have added the same for the three still active nuclear power plants and who knows how many other outline examples.
Draghi wants to discuss these compensations on Thursday and Friday in Versailles. But what do you have in mind?
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First, a cap on gas prices . Apparently, "a hypothesis that should see all EU countries agree on a single and controlled price for gas imported from Moscow". Okay, but what if the price of Russian gas rises above that single, controlled price ? There are three cases: either Russia accepts the discount … but who wants to risk it? Or, all EU countries refuse to buy … but who wants to stay in the dark? Or again, someone takes on the difference… and this someone can only be the EU with a German financial guarantee behind it. The third is the only possible option and, as you can see, the concept is: give us the money .
Second, new Eurobonds . Gentiloni explains: (1) Premise, the invasion of Ukraine "requires us to take a leap, a second constituent moment after the success of the first … in the energy and defense fields", because on the effectiveness of the sanctions "we have no no certainty … so you have to equip yourself for a longer period ". It would be “650 billion a year just for the ecological and digital transition, a few tens of billions for those in defense”… let's repeat it: a year . (2) To REPowerEU , “jointly funded compensation mechanisms could be added”. (3) Furthermore, “a balance must be found to keep the accounts under control, especially in high-debt countries , without affecting the need for investments” and the way would be either a new Ngeu or a new Sure . For all this, "the Versailles summit will be fundamental". (3) But this is not enough for him, he also wants the ECB to consider the high inflation underway as "an inflation that does not derive from an overheating of the economy, but from an increase in energy prices" … that is, as if it were not inflation.
So far, the demands of Draghi.
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Draghi's attempt is clearly to take possession of the theme of permanent economic war with Russia – which we have seen used by NATO to organize order in Europe mainly in military terms, that is to the detriment of the EU. The EU must not disappear, however. Rather, provide the money to finance what NATO commands. On the other hand, Washington already provides enormous funds for the military defense of Europe. It does what it can: it intervenes on the large commodity markets, as it is trying to do with Arabia and the Emirates, Iran, Venezuela. But she certainly cannot finance the expenses of Draghi (or Slovakia, or Greece). The EU, that is, the Germans, must take care of these.
So do the Americans. And Draghi in tow, particularly zealous. Not only did he say he was in favor of Kiev's request for entry into the EU, even though he knew that for Moscow it was kryptonite . But also, during his visit to Brussels in an – for him – unusual press moment , he stressed that "other sanctions are not excluded". And, he was proud to be applying the sanctions with particular vigor and gave the example of kidnappings to the so-called oligarchs , as we have seen. Even before that visit, Draghi had aligned himself with the position of Paris, clearly expressed by Monsieur Fubinì : “block Russian oil and limit gas deals”. In particular, from Chigi they had made it known that they were not opposed to the American request to impose an embargo on Russian oil , but to an embargo on gas … but Washington and Paris are not asking for that.
Germano Dottori attributes this zeal of Draghi towards the Americans, to the attempt to recover with respect to a previous too sympathetic position towards Russia: with particular reference to the visit to Moscow announced on February 17, struck to death by the announcement of the recognition of the two republics of Donbass on the 21st, finally canceled on the 23rd to Lavrov's great disappointment . At his expense, he cites the sarcastic tweets of Ian Bremmer and Zelensky . But he does not cite Macron's visit to Moscow on the 10th and the latter's 14 contacts with Putin, the last of his and Scholz's yesterday .
On the other hand, Draghi immediately denied that he wanted to escape the imposition of sanctions; on the contrary, in the matter of financial sanctions he made quite heavy proposals (as we have seen ). Attitude consistent with the rest of the EU, but not with that of NATO where Turkish rejection dominates. As well as, further on, the rejection of an iron ally of the USA: Israel .
Yes, in the following days we witnessed Draghi's exclusion from the Biden-Johnson-Macron mini-summit with Scholz. But we cannot overlook the fact that, on that very day and as we have seen, Draghi was visiting the Von der Leyen. In both meetings, it was about the same goal: to convince the Germans to finance the sanctions and rearmament of the rest of Europe, as well as their own. In other words, to make the Americans do the money of the Germans .
So, we think that Washington did not “ force Italy to align itself… despite … non-negligible national interests pushed to dialogue with Moscow”, as Dottori proposes. But, if anything, that it induced it to align itself, at least by promising adequate financial coverage. With German money – via the EU and the ECB – of course.
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Sadly , the Germans seem anything but willing. The Commission has made a clean sweep of the aforementioned proposals. On Wednesday, announcing the aforementioned REPowerEU , he showed the usual futile verbiage: provision of a minimum stockpiling, to be imposed on the Member States, but with convenience ("a legislative proposal by April"); “A new temporary crisis framework for state aid expected by a date to be decided; “Further guidelines, which confirm the possibility of regulating prices in exceptional circumstances”, but which the Commission reserves the right to evaluate one by one (ie no gas price ceiling is mentioned at all); a generic commitment to evaluate the “advantages and disadvantages of alternative pricing mechanisms”.
The meat would be limited to "two pillars … diversifying gas supplies … reducing the use of fossil fuels more rapidly", which would allow – according to them – to "reduce the EU demand for Russian gas by two thirds by the end of the year ", that is, from the current 45 per cent to 15 per cent. Then one goes to see the attached tables and finds it written that of the 100 billion cubic meters of fossil gas that the EU is sure it will not be able to import from Russia starting from the end of 2022 : 50 come from the purchase of liquid gas LNG, 14 from “lowering the thermostat for heating buildings by 1 ° C”, 20 from new wind and solar plants… starting from the end of 2022 . The legendary Dutch clown called Timmermans also has the slogan "switch to renewable sources at the speed of light ". Curtain. So there is not even the meat: REPowerEU is a nothing, a nothing, a Potemkin village, a monument to facite ammuina .
And there is no lack of the final double insult. For Ukraine: “the EU is ready to give support to ensure reliable and sustainable energy”… biogas under the bombing. For Draghi: we will work " on the basis of the extensive work already done on national plans for recovery and resilience " … use the Ngeu that is already there, if you are capable.
Nor does the draft of what will be pompously termed the Versailles Declaration contain much more. This is the main dish that Draghi will find on Thursday and Friday, on the Versailles table.
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As a side dish, a series of nice warnings. Our friend Lindner : “we support Ukraine. There is also a joint European effort to continue supporting Ukraine. But this is independent of a debate on funding instruments. Joint responsibility in Europe through the issuance of joint bonds is not on the agenda at the moment ”… that is, a pre-printed nein .
On the other hand, Berlin has already announced new own spending plans ( 200 billion up to 2026 for energy, 100 billion up to 2026 for defense), which Lindner has already agreed to finance in debt. But for your country, rightly so. Chiosa Daniel Gros : "not all countries – for example Spain and Italy – have decided to increase defense spending" … we have already given .
Dutch finance minister Sigrid Kaag: the EU should "as a first step" use existing funds and, in any case, "we must better understand which countries and which sectors are concerned" … that is, we too pay at home for sanctions and refugees . All this, in the pleasant context of the only Protestant church in the city of Maastricht and with the usual promise of sending the Troika to us, like the Kaag : no deduction of investments, not even the green ones from the deficit … let alone the military ones; and "highly indebted countries must focus on reducing their debt … stick to a strengthened program … under the supervision of an independent body ." Excuse me, beautiful lady, what about the energy crisis? And the penalties? "We need to talk about our financial stability." Amen.
Again Timmermans : “we don't have such plans in the commission… I don't know if there might be in some Member States”. Where to find the money, preferably he doesn't talk about it at all. Only on specific request , in addition to a generic "there should be no taboos, even in financial terms", he actually referred to the old Ngeu ("much of what we are doing is already in our national recovery and resilience plans"), as well as any indications that ever came from Versailles (even if "it depends on what the French presidency will bring to the table").
He likes to win easy because, in fact, the letter of invitation to Versailles does not mention it. Yes, “strengthen our defense capabilities; reduce our energy dependence, in particular on Russian gas, oil and coal; and build a more solid economic base ". Yes, talk about the “situation in Ukraine, as well as defense and energy”. But with what money, no one knows. Already an EU official told Politico.eu "that he would be very surprised if a plan to issue joint bonds were part of the summit's final declaration".
In short, it seems really difficult for Draghi to be able, in Versailles, in his own intent, to be an American with the money of the Germans . Very very difficult.
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Today, but this is also true in perspective. This can be glimpsed in certain statements by Chancellor Scholz, for example when he subordinates a large chunk of the new military spending to an American license to build F-35s in Germany and France: how long would it take to conclude such an agreement?
Or it can also be glimpsed behind certain statements by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak who, while the US asked Europeans to join the embargo on Russian oil, responded by emphasizing his right to an equal and opposite response on gas. By ventilating, in particular, the closure of Nord Stream 1 : the big brother of Nord Stream 2 which has been talked about so much on Atlantico Quotidiano and which we know is completed but inactive. Result? The Americans did the oil embargo without the EU.
Now, what if tomorrow an accident interrupts the flow of gas in the pipeline that passes through Belarus, or the one that passes through Ukraine? Well, it would happen that Moscow would offer to switch it through Nord Stream 2 . At a time when the strategic difference between the three will have vanished, if Ukraine has passed under Putin's control. And how would the Germans react? Well, in the same way they gave in to the Russian Deputy Prime Minister who aired the closure of Nord Stream 1 : they would give in.
Finally, the new president of Bundesbank Nagel , six days after the Russian invasion, specified that the participation of his central bank in the Ukrainian question consists in implementing sanctions, then denounces high inflation and Target 2 rose to 1.3T, to conclude : “We need to keep our eyes on the normalization of our monetary policy ”. And that the ECB obeys Berlin this time, we all saw it yesterday: " ECB is Putin's best ally ", it has already been said.
The German commitment in the permanent economic war against Russia , in short, is already relevant today and will be all the more so tomorrow, once the war in Ukraine is over. Draghi, not only today but also in perspective, can forget about being an American with the money of the Germans .
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And with what money, then, will he replace Russian gas? With what money will he rearm? A big problem, since it is he himself who repeated, once more, that “you get out of debt with the greatest growth. Therefore, we must try to keep the economy in the excellent state it finished last year ”.
Maintain , Mr. President? And how do we keep it: with the “exhausted stocks” of grain-feed-seeds-nickel-scrap-palladium- neon -cobalt-aluminum and relying on the “Italian producers of raw materials” [ sic ]? By killing the animals in the stables and leaving the fields fallow ? Closing the pasta factories ? By turning off the paper mills , the steel mills , the ceramics , the fishing boats ? By rationing household consumption? With a government committed exclusively to "diversifying supplies, increasing the contribution of renewable sources which (I repeat and I keep repeating) remains the only fundamental strategy in the long term" because "the environment, the ecological transition is a bit the very essence of this government "? That is, without granting new drilling or the reactivation of disused coal plants? With a prime minister who candidly admits that " there is still a lot to do to analyze the consequences" of the sanctions he himself has imposed ? With His Excellency the Illustrious Minister Cingolani raving about (“we would not stop the machines”, “if we turn off the light of people, at a certain point even people begin to say that perhaps for a certain period it is possible to proceed in contingency”)? The same Cingolani who, for you, "has already done a lot"? Ah Mario, what are you saying ?!
Peacefully, serenely: Italy plunges into recession . With the "prudent budget policy" that Draghi claims he wants to keep (in clear contradiction with the nonsense promises about an impossible major reform of the Stability Pact and, in fact, insisting on the increase in house taxes ), Italy it will also suffer a fiscal squeeze. With the normalization of monetary policy it will also go into financial crisis. A 1973 within a 2011. We thought it was the Iceberg , it was Antarctica . What to do? Were we in Draghi, we would have a little speech to our American friends, this:
“Dear, you want sanctions and rearmament from us. Very well, us too. But … well but the permanent economic war against Russia we must also pay for it. Indeed, after the last German nein via the EU and the ECB, pay for it yourself. It would be nice to do it in the Euro but, unfortunately, it is not possible. It is only possible outside. So, dear, now choose: either you let us out and you will have the continuation of the sanctions and rearmament paid in Lire, or you let us in and you will have a frankly Putinian people's revolution. Yours, Mario ” .
It's impossible? Perhaps. But, then, let us explain how it happened that Draghi is considering a ban on the export of some raw materials. Prohibition that would necessarily comply with art. 36 Tfue : without prejudice to export prohibitions or restrictions justified for reasons of public order or public security . Someone authoritatively noted that “if they have come to want to apply art. 36 TFEU , it is hard to see why they should not apply, a fortiori and for the same reasons of public order and safety , the 65 TFEU ”. The art. 65, the one that allows Member States… to adopt measures justified on grounds of public order or public security ”. There is always a way out. Just come out of the opium den and take courage in both hands.
The post Draghi in Brussels to do the American with German money. But he will have to hurry to find an alternative appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/draghi-a-bruxelles-per-fare-lamericano-coi-soldi-tedeschi-ma-dovra-spicciarsi-a-trovare-unalternativa/ on Fri, 11 Mar 2022 03:54:00 +0000.