Emergency and Green Pass, the weapons of the Democratic Party to chain Draghi at Palazzo Chigi
On 7 October on Atlantico we told how the Democratic Party absolutely does not want Draghi at the Quirinale. Then we discussed why . Today we would like to imagine what the Democratic Party could do to prevent it, in the two months that separate us from the meeting of the electors (presumably set for January 18).
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The necessary background are the expectations of merit of Mattarella and Draghi at the time of the formation of the government: “ winning the pandemic , completing the vaccination campaign, offering answers to the daily problems of citizens, relaunching the country , are the challenges that confront us. We have the extraordinary resources of the European Union at our disposal ”. Mattarella – according to Bruno Vespa – would have convinced Draghi to go to Chigi with the following argument: "the great technicians must earn the Hill on the field … Draghi did it … especially by leading the country in the most difficult moment since the post-war period".
Today, Draghi wants to declare himself the winner, so he goes to the Quirinale. Thus La Stampa : "according to a thesis circulating between Palazzo Chigi and the Ministry of Economy, Draghi would justify his step back by claiming to have completed the work for which he was called by Mattarella, on the reforms related to the PNRR and on vaccinations " .
On the contrary, the Democratic Party wants to declare him defeated, thus preventing him from going to the Quirinale. So Letta announced his intention "between now and January" to draw attention to the "restart of the country": in terms of "things on the agenda" (ie the PNNR) and "exit from the pandemic". Formula promptly translated by its columnists, for example: Massimo Giannini ("with all evidence, neither of these two missions is yet completed ") Cappellini ("no one thinks that the former governor of the ECB can leave of his will in 2022, not with a Pnrr still to be implemented and a Covid emergency in a growing phase ") repeatedly (" neither can be considered extinct for completed mission "). We investigate.
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The Pnrr – That the Italian Pnrr is just sketched, Liturri also noted, from positions far from the Democratic Party. Therefore, Stefano Folli does not struggle to be particularly tough: "the much-cited and little-implemented reforms, the uncertainty about when European funds will arrive – beyond the advance already received – and for which works they will actually be used" . Already openly hostile to Draghi at the Quirinale, he takes the opportunity to return to invoke the stay of Mattarella or the candidacy of Giuliano Amato … anyone as long as he is a companion.
Draghi obviously counter-maneuver. He initially tried to change the subject. TheCorriere wrote, "to hear the ministers closest to him, the premier believes that the government completed its task when the economic maneuver was unanimously approved by the CDM". Here he tried to slip in Letta , proposing "a pact between the parties, in support of Draghi " (meaning in support of Draghi Prime Minister ), to secure the " first maneuver of this government" (where the emphasis goes on 'adjective before ). One way to (among other things) take away the 'merit' of the maneuver and force him to respond on the PNRR.
Brussels intervened to rescue Draghi, which made it known that it had no findings, not only on the maneuver … but also on the NRP: “at the end of December Palazzo Chigi and the Ministry of the Economy will be able to transmit the request for the new installment of loans. After the 24 billion received last August, around twenty billion should therefore arrive in mid-February ".
Of course, Letta could try to insist on certain flaws also noticed by Brussels and, more generally, with the issue of implementation . But Draghi would have a good time responding with the thesis presented by Andrea Manzella , according to which the PNRR has "constitutional value based on the obligations deriving from articles 11 and 117 of the Constitution", therefore "between now and 2026, the programmatic address of the the Italian government is bound, whatever the parliamentary majority … for the next five years, whatever the color of the government , it will have to limit itself to giving different tones and rhythms to a music that is already written in the PNRR ". This is the thesis at the time fought by Villone : “the possibility of changing political direction on the treaties and on the consequent choices is at stake. There is no obstacle in the Constitution , and no treaty is binding for eternity ”. But it is also Mattarella's thesis, that is of the Democratic Party which, therefore, cannot fight it openly. And it is also the thesis of the majority of observers, terrified by financial instability and, consequently, indifferent to the survival of democracy in Italy. In fact, Letta doesn't insist.
In short, in terms of PNRR Draghi has a clear advantage over the Democratic Party.
The vaccination plan – It is no coincidence that the Democratic Party is shifting the focus, as evidenced by a remarkable headline in La Repubblica : "Covid, the fourth wave relaunches the Draghi-Mattarella tandem". Procedure: “complete the mission; here, if there is a node that weighs more than the others, it is Covid ". Yes, of course, 45 million Italians received a so-called complete cycle of vaccinations and "until a few weeks ago, a slogan above all bounced from the executive, the meaning of which was: we put things back in order". Unfortunately for Draghi, a new factor has intervened: "a new race against time on vaccinations". So he'll have to stay in Chigi.
The secret weapon of the Democratic Party is called waning . Thus the ISS-Istituto Superiore di Sanità: "after 6 months from the completion of the vaccination cycle, there is a sharp decrease in the effectiveness in preventing diagnoses in all age groups". And, in fact, Letta said: “doing the third dose campaign well is essential to avoid the risks of new waves and new lockdowns ”. So, today we have Excellency Guido Rasi advisor to Generalissimo Figliuolo, explaining that the cycle of vaccinations could be considered complete only with a third dose … and many others herald, literally, "the fourth, the fifth, etc.". So, has Draghi completed the job he was called for by Mattarella ( win the pandemic , complete the vaccination campaign )? No, far from it.
It is the same Excellency Guido Rasi who explains that the vaccination efficacy not diminished is the one "on the basis of which the Green Pass was built" and the ISS today discusses reducing the duration of the Green Pass from 12 to 6 or at least 9 months . The intriguing aspect is that waning does not come at all unexpected: as early as August 22, Israeli Prime Minister Bennett chanted, “If five months have passed since the second vaccine, you are not protected; get vaccinated immediately ”(as Federico Punzi explained). Still, it was on September 4 that Draghi extended the duration of the Green Pass from 9 to 12 months. So, he acted like a scoundrel .
La Repubblica continues: Draghi is silent, “however, something is slowly changing around him. It is as if a widespread awareness takes shape and strength… it is difficult to ask the country to endure another six months of state of emergency and not to ensure political stability at the same time ”. Six more months of state of emergency ?! It is in force until December 31 and Draghi must decide whether to extend it to January 31 (but it would make little practical sense), or beyond that date (with a new ordinance in which it should indicate an emergency other than Covid in 2020). If he did, he would confess that he did not complete the job for which he was called and the Democratic Party would have won. Obviously, the Democratic Party longs for the new ordinance, with Ainis defining any time limit to the state of emergency as an "absurd claim".
The duration of the Green Pass is legally linked to the duration of the state of emergency . It is true that it could be made to survive a possible end of the state of emergency , through ad hoc regulations released from the civil protection law… but it could never be argued that the Green Pass itself is not an emergency instrument . Again, making him survive, Draghi would confess that he did not complete the job for which he was called and the Democratic Party would have won. Natalino Irti warns him: if that sign passes, "the whole society, exhausted and tired, goes in search of other paths" … others as well as Draghi.
He cannot present the Green Pass as an ordinary instrument (thus transforming it from an emergency instrument into an instrument of exception ), unless he wants to characterize his candidacy as frankly authoritarian . As already the objections to the Green Pass emergency instrument have offered the Democratic Party the opportunity to shout back to the emergency (" NoVax subversion " [sic]) … let alone the complaints if the Green Pass becomes an ordinary tool : the Democratic Party he would scream at the insurrectional danger and Draghi would remain nailed to Chigi as a policeman. Natalino Irti warns him of this too: "the emergency , becoming an exception , can reveal or herald a crisis in the legal system … energies of the subsoil are agitated and nervous ".
Ditto if he did as in Austria , reserving the pass for the healed and vaccinated only and, therefore, establishing a frankly apartheid regime. Proposal in which the Democratic Party wallows not by chance ( Letta's super-greenpass , De Luca's napalm , La Repubblica which says it is necessary to encourage the third dose). But even if he did n't, Draghi himself would be forced by the state of emergency to impose general restrictions on vaccinated and unvaccinated, as the regions turn yellow, orange and red. And, then, the street demonstrations would risk becoming even more crowded.
Ahead of this step, the Democratic Party would soon ask Draghi to do more than in Austria , that is, to introduce the super-greenpass even at work (Letta's super-super-greenpass ), with the definitive total sacrifice of the right to work and, therefore, , a frankly insuperable social and constitutional difficulty. The Democratic Party was hoping for a little help from Brussels (we must never forget that the filth that is the Green Pass is the child of the EU's Digital Covid Certificate ): the shortened duration to 9 months, as well as the exclusion of unvaccinated leaving regions o Member States at risk … unfortunately , it seems to have only obtained the second. Sorry but also no.
As you can see, the state of emergency and the Green Pass are a trap for Draghi. From which he could only get out by cutting the knot of too many contradictions: canceling them both and replacing them with the general health obligation of vaccination , to be presented as "the straightforward return to normality" (legal and constitutional) that Irti suggests. It would not be a question of forcibly accompanying citizens to get vaccinated , but rather to apply today's senseless sanctions and limitations but, at least, with a legitimate tool and without requiring written consent and assumption of responsibility for the vaccinated.
Yes, it is true that the vaccine in Europe is still subject to conditional authorization , but if the financial risk is not assumed by the state that wants it, why should the citizen who does not want it? Does the decision maker risk civil and criminal consequences? And that's his business … at least he'll be careful what he does. By doing so, Draghi would show the decision – making that already benefited his career in other times. The NoVax protests would continue, but plausibly less widespread than the NoPass ones. The epidemic would continue, of course, due to insufficient efficacy of vaccines (the vaccinated are infected and infected) … but the evidence of this would not emerge before the election of the new President of the Republic. And here we are talking about those, not about medicine. Draghi would have won the game. And the Democratic Party would only have to declare itself defeated.
Of course, alternatively he could try to overturn Letta's argument, raising the health emergency to justify his elevation to the Quirinale as a guarantor of stability , to be ensured with a government entrusted to its own gallop who brings the legislature to an end. But it would be a very weak argument, in the face of too many mistakes made.
For now, he glosses over. He suffers from the extremism of Speranza , Letta and Franceschini , he suffers from the decomposed nervousness of the Regions of the League (a political party that even in theory supports him) and of Forza Italia (who pull the sprint to Berlusconi), but he is in real difficulty. In short, in terms of vaccination Draghi suffers from a serious disadvantage on the Democratic Party, but can recover.
The next financial crisis – Finally, Letta may have a third argument in store with which to attack Draghi. But it does not depend on him and he cannot anticipate it. Let their newspapers talk about it, which, a few days ago, suddenly discovered that, in March 2020, the ECB gave us only an hour of air : Mario Monti , Boeri and Perotti , Cottarelli (who, still in September, reassured ), Alessandro Penati , Zatterin … everyone agrees that inflation is returning and ECB purchases could end. Carlo Messina is worried about them ("our country has a public debt of 2,700 billion, 750 of which the ECB finances us"), who also draws the conclusion: "I believe that the Prime Minister, remaining in his place , can do the good of our country ". Draghi knows very well: the end of the purchases is the iceberg that would keep him nailed to Chigi, and that he absolutely wants to avoid by taking refuge in the Quirinale.
The Democratic Party does not worry about the iceberg : unlike Draghi, it does not trust in the already brutal internal devaluation , but directly in the horrid Mes and, in its own infinite ignorance, it thinks it could work. Therefore, he hopes for an acceleration of this latent financial crisis, which manifests itself before the election of the new head of state, thus nailing Draghi to Chigi. But we doubt it will happen in time.
In short, in matters of money and finance, Draghi enjoys a certain advantage over Letta, at least in terms of time.
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The reader will judge who, between Letta and Draghi, is ahead. It seems to us no one in a decisive way, for now at least and unless some other upcoming event that demolishes the defenses of one or the other (but we would not know which one). If so, in January at the meeting of the electors the two will meet in single combat. In the next article we will imagine what could happen there.
The post Emergency and Green Pass, the weapons of the Democratic Party to chain Draghi at Palazzo Chigi appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/emergenza-e-green-pass-le-armi-del-pd-per-incatenare-draghi-a-palazzo-chigi/ on Sat, 20 Nov 2021 03:51:00 +0000.