Erdogan towards sunset in spite of his authoritarian and liberticidal policy
It is very likely that the humiliation inflicted on Ursula von der Leyen during the visit of the EU leaders to Istanbul is, in fact, self-inflicted. In the sense that its roots are to be found in the rivalry between the President of the Commission and the President of the European Council, the ineffable Charles Michel. The latter sat comfortably in the armchair next to Erdogan, leaving her colleague standing. It seems, among other things, that he did not even mention to get up to give way to the lady. An act that, at least in the Western world, is normal even on buses.
The Turks rightly made fun of the story, proclaiming themselves innocent and claiming that the seating arrangement respected the will of Michel's protocol officers, while those of von der Leyen were absent. In any case, the story demonstrates once more the confusion that reigns in the high-rises of Brussels, where it seems that no one has clear ideas about the priority role between the President of the Commission and the Council.
The bad figures that the EU often collects abroad are therefore inevitable, where practically no one considers it really important. Chinese and Russians, to cite just two examples, prefer to dialogue with individual member states rather than with the Brussels summits. Let us therefore admit that the Turks are innocent, and that they have only maliciously exploited the glorious opportunity to reaffirm their distrust of the EU as such.
However, the criticisms leveled at Mario Draghi for having defined Recep Tayyip Erdogan "a dictator" seem ungenerous. In reality, the "Sultan" deserves the title of "dictator" much more than Vladimir Putin has that of killer that Joe Biden gave him. That Erdogan is not "technically" a dictator depends on a single fact. The Turkish society and political world that are irremediably hostile to him have – fortunately – found a way to prevent him from becoming one in all respects.
In reality, many signs indicate that his political parable is now turning to sunset after two decades of often sensational successes. And all this in spite of the liberticidal measures that the "Sultan" has been adopting without hesitation for many years now. His own "Party for Justice and Development" (AKP), which he founded in 2001, is deeply split with the departure of numerous prominent exponents. Among them I will limit myself to mentioning the co-founder of the AKP Abdullah Gul, former president of the Republic and inspirer of the "Party of Democracy and Progress" (DEVA), now aligned with liberal and pro-Western positions.
Erdogan's tight fight against all types of opposition is now being held back by the serious economic difficulties that the country is going through. The Turkish lira suffered a crash in the currency markets, and government intervention was not able to stop it from falling. In this regard, the opposition heavily criticizes the current president accusing him of wasting public money in the numerous armed interventions of the Turkish army and fleet abroad: for example in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan to support the Azeris against the Armenians.
The fact is that such interventions are essential for Erdogan, as they allow him to give substance to his neo-Ottoman strategy, which aims to strengthen the country's role as a great regional power. He would like to make it the heir of the Ottoman Empire, already an ally of Germany in the First World War, and dissolved after the victory of the allied powers.
At the same time, Erdogan is interested in imposing the Turkish presence in the Mediterranean. While still making his country part of NATO, he did not hesitate to exacerbate tensions with other members of the Atlantic Alliance. In the first place with Greece, but the same goes for France, the USA and Italy itself.
On the other hand, the game that the Turkish leader is playing on the home front is very dangerous and can lead to unwelcome results. It is in fact trying to weaken and isolate all political parties that are hostile to it. As always, the primary target is the Kurds, who dominate the country's third political force, the HDP ("Peoples' Democratic Party"). Erdogan's intention is to outlaw it, banning 687 of its members from political activity for their alleged support for unspecified "terrorist activities".
Strong is also the opposition of the second major Turkish political force, the CHP ("People's Republican Party"), heir to the secular tradition inaugurated by the founder of modern Turkey Mustafa Kemal "Ataturk". Among other things, it includes many mayors of major cities, including Istanbul and Ankara. The fact is that, since 2018, Erdogan's AKP no longer has an absolute majority in Parliament, and in 2019 it suffered heavy defeats in all large urban centers, confirming its strength only in the countryside.
Precisely for this reason the strategy of the current president is becoming more and more dangerous. To win the missing votes, he is allying himself with the most extremist Islamic forces and, above all, with the nationalist and panturca extreme right that refers to the "Gray Wolves". A disturbing scenario, therefore. Also because Erdogan has promoted soldiers loyal to him in the armed forces and, to weaken the student protest, he is imposing his trustees at the top of the universities by replacing the rectors who he does not consider in line with his projects.
At this point it is clear that the "Sultan" fears the popular vote and is willing to do everything to prevent the majority of voters from turning against him, as could actually happen. It is therefore not risky to speak of its "sunset" after decades of undisputed power. A sunset that would obviously also have repercussions on the international level and that many, in Europe and elsewhere, hope for.
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This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/erdogan-verso-il-tramonto-a-dispetto-della-sua-politica-autoritaria-e-liberticida/ on Mon, 12 Apr 2021 03:58:00 +0000.