If diplomacy fails, the West cannot remain neutral between Kiev and Moscow
The confrontation between the West, in particular the United States, and Russia about the present and especially the future of Ukraine, has so far been a more psychological tug of war than anything else. However, in recent weeks this international quarrel has gradually taken on more and more disturbing contours, to the point of foreshadowing a real armed conflict. The Russians have already deployed their troops on the border with Ukraine for some time, but now military aid from the US is arriving in Kiev and the normally disengaged Germany will send a field hospital, while refusing to ship weapons: 8,500 US troops are in state of alert and NATO is thinking about moving airplanes and ships. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres says he is confident that there will be no Russian invasion of Ukraine, but not everyone shares the optimism of the UN leaders.
It is clear how everything, both the possible resurgence of tension and a hypothetical diplomatic solution, is in the hands of Vladimir Putin. If the Moscow troops remain where they are or even better, take a step back, a war, so to speak, warring is essentially to be ruled out, but if they cross the Russian-Ukrainian border, then anything could happen, including options. less desirable. It is hoped that the point of no return of a real war will not be reached. The last thing the world, especially Europe, needs, after two years of pandemic and general impoverishment, is an armed confrontation with unpredictable consequences.
Observing everything in good faith, even if this feeling is an increasingly rare commodity, one can glimpse a possible compromise capable of not mortifying anyone's dignity. Some in the West have indulged in a somewhat inappropriate adoration of Vladimir Putin, whose authoritarianism is not an enviable model, but, without precisely elevating him for example and also avoiding perceiving him as a sincere friend, one can however try to avoid through a negotiation, the total confrontation with the Russian president. Which, when compared with the pitfalls of which China is the bearer, constitutes the lesser evil for the West. Speaking of China, it is also necessary to do everything possible so that Moscow and Beijing do not overly weld their respective anti-Western interests in a deadly embrace for us.
One could hypothesize, for example, a political process that would lead the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk, mostly populated by Russian speakers, to pronounce themselves by referendum under international supervision on their belonging to Ukraine, according to the principle of self-determination. In return, Putin should first commit to de-escalation in the area and to respect the outcome of the vote, as well as to allow Ukraine to plan its future and alliances in peace and without threats, including eventual membership of the Alliance. Atlantic. Unfortunately, things are never too simple and the basic objectives do not always coincide with those stated.
Will Vladimir Putin's neo-imperialist craving, already exhibited several times in the recent past, manage not to go beyond the guard level? The Kremlin has recently demanded the withdrawal of NATO troops from Romania and Bulgaria, two countries that have been members of the Alliance for several years now, and this does not bode well for Russian reasonableness. We must not stop trusting in a success of diplomacy, but if Russia were to aim hopelessly at a conflict and were not interested in coming to terms, the West could not remain neutral while a completely illegitimate invasion of a sovereign state takes place.
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This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/se-la-diplomazia-fallisce-loccidente-non-puo-restare-neutrale-tra-kiev-e-mosca/ on Fri, 28 Jan 2022 03:43:00 +0000.