In Davos, Merkel aligned with Xi Jinping. Germany risks handing Europe over to China
We analyzed last Tuesday the speech of Chinese President Xi Jinping at the World Economic Forum , this year in videoconference, highlighting, unlike most commentators, how the proposal for a "great reset" with the United States was prevalent after the stormy Trump years. Sure in terms of a challenge, a veiled threat, blaming Washington for the current state of relations, but it was not a "Cold War" speech, but rather an exhortation to avoid it, exposing the Chinese conditions to return to the status quo before Trump.
Nobody wants a new Cold War. Not Xi Jinping, not Biden, much less as we will see Merkel (hence Europe). Now, we need to understand how to close the confrontation phase, inaugurated four years ago by Donald Trump, and return to a cooperative competition, if not to a real engagement , without anyone losing face.
And we tried to sketch out a first hypothesis on the strategy that the new US administration will adopt towards Beijing, whether or not continuity will prevail, and in what doses, with the hard line of the Trump presidency, appreciated by the new Secretary of State Blinken during the his confirmation hearing in the Senate.
Our study hypothesis is that the Biden administration will try to keep alive a hostile, or at least very assertive, narrative about China – and to this end it will play the human rights card – essentially for domestic political reasons, trying instead to develop an enveloping maneuver in order to involve Beijing in global governance, but by making it responsible and wresting from it greater reciprocity in economic and commercial relations with the West. The rebalancing that Trump had tried hard to get before the pandemic wiped out everything.
However, we have listed three reasons why we believe this approach is doomed to failure.
One of these is Europe, and in particular its leading power, Germany, whose economy is very exposed to China. Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, who denied being aware of the Uyghur repression in Xinjiang, has come to argue that it is easier for German companies to invest in China than for Chinese companies to invest in Germany.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's speech in Davos, misread by some as the Western response to Xi or the European version of multilateralism, has indeed shown that the German-led EU is the weak link in any American strategy towards Beijing. It was with Trump and promises to be with Biden too.
After Trump's brief season, multilateralism is once again the word on everyone's lips. Everyone understands it at their convenience, but the concept is increasingly emptied of substance. Except for Xi Jinping, for the other leaders it seems a useful screen to hide immobility and lack of strategic vision. Anyone who does not profess multilateralism – like those who do not profess to be pro-Europeans – is now treated as a plague, but the two principles are now only empty boxes, when not filled with spoiled goods.
On the key of the return to multilateralism he beat the Chinese leader, hoping to find a hearing in the Biden administration, which intends to make multilateralism the cornerstone of its foreign policy.
“It's time for multilateralism”, Merkel echoed: the pandemic highlighted “the meaning of globalization” as “interdependence”, showing that “trying to isolate oneself is a failure”. "Closing is not needed", you need to have an "open mind".
If you find at least these words out of tune, when for months just because of the pandemic they have done nothing but lock us up, know that you are not alone. Citizens are closed at home, many businesses closed, but states are also "closed". In recent months it has been explained to us that "closing down", at all levels – inside our homes as well as within our borders – really serves to fight the pandemic.
And the pandemic has also shown that you don't need to be part of a continental political union, a multinational superstate, to organize a mass vaccination campaign well. The UK and Israel have shown that in a globalized world, “small” can mean more efficient. Ironically, in their own way the most "one-sided" leaders, Trump, Johnson and Netanyahu, were the fastest to procure vaccines and start vaccinating their countries' populations. But this will be the theme, if anything, for another article.
Returning to Merkel, it was not very “multilateral” on the part of the German chancellor to hurry to close the investment agreement with Beijing before the Biden administration took office, that is, before being able to discuss it with the American ally. A message that is all too clear: to emphasize European autonomy, the German-led EU wants to go it alone, without guardians. There would also be much to discuss about an agreement that at first glance seems to be tailored to German interests, made to coincide with those of all European countries.
In Beijing, Merkel pulled a few smacks on human rights and the lack of transparency in the first weeks of the spread of the new coronavirus , immediately adding that "we must not only look back, but also forward", and praising the decision of President Biden to remain in the WHO.
One of the declared pillars of the new US strategy towards China consists in recovering the relationship with the European (and Indo-Pacific) allies to make a common front, a sort of alliance of democracies that is able to compete and negotiate more effectively with Beijing.
Despite a vague willingness expressed by Brussels to work together with the US on the China dossier, at the Davos Forum, Chancellor Merkel instead rejected the idea of a common front of democracies to speak with Beijing: "I would very much like to avoid the formation of blocks" , he said aligning with the words of the Chinese president the day before, when he warned Washington against "building small circles". The Chancellor left no room for doubt:
“I don't think it would do justice to many societies if we were to say this is the United States and over there is China and we are grouping around either the one or the other. This is not my understanding of how things ought to be ".
"Teaming up" with allies is exactly what the Biden administration wants. On the contrary, for Merkel it seems that Europe should not take sides between the US and China and that precisely in relations with Beijing, the EU must affirm its "strategic autonomy". But it is a gamble, as we have emphasized several times in Atlantico Quotidiano .
Indeed, one cannot fail to see how the long-term strategy of the Chinese leadership is focused on transforming Europe into a politically non-aligned bloc. A sort of "Greater Switzerland", economically relevant, but neutral.
In this scenario, which Henry Kissinger has been trying to warn against for years, the United States would find itself isolated in containing China, while by dominating Eurasia, Beijing could reshape the global order in its image and likeness and the EU would not it would be a network of vassal states unaware of their dependence, since they would have neither the strength nor the ability to stand alone against China.
A hostile America supported by its allies represents in the eyes of the Chinese leadership the most threatening for its hegemonic ambitions. And, on the other hand, in Eurasia the United States has no more important allies than Europe.
And this explains the language used by Xi Jinping in Davos, both in 2017 and today specially packaged to be received by European ears. Its goal is not to become the beacon of liberal values. Adopt the language of Davos' globalist elites, embrace the cause of multilateralism and globalization, join European leaders such as Angela Merkel in defending the liberal international order against the return of nationalism, as in 2017, after the victory of Brexit and Trump , it is all instrumental in separating Europe from the United States (and Great Britain).
It is such a clear plan that China supports the idea of EU "strategic autonomy". Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently cleared up his doubts when he explained to his French counterpart that Beijing supports Europe's effort "to stand alone as a pole of the world". And that "this, on the Chinese side, is not a temporary position, but a permanent strategic thought".
As Peter Rough of the Hudson Institute explains, Beijing has been working alongside Europe with a dual economic strategy in line with its objective. First, taking advantage of globalization, it has entered the European economy, creating dependence. Second, it is manipulating those dependencies to empty and displace Europe's advanced economies. To cover up this deception, he has built a vast political network across the continent, from mere sympathizers to outright spies.
With its industry so exposed, it is no coincidence that Berlin sees China as the key to post-pandemic recovery and economic growth. And Xi exploited this dependence to close the investment agreement, whose main purpose is evidently to get ahead of the new US administration by trying to prevent a transatlantic approach to the Chinese question.
The post In Davos, Merkel aligned with Xi Jinping. Germany risks handing Europe over to China appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/a-davos-merkel-allineata-a-xi-jinping-la-germania-rischia-di-consegnare-leuropa-alla-cina/ on Fri, 29 Jan 2021 04:59:36 +0000.