The adventurer’s day is approaching: will Salvini, Letta and Berlusconi be able to avoid it?
The fundamental fact is the fragmentation of parliamentary groups into a multitude of sub-groups. Berlusconi's intuition was based on the recognition of this state on the left, but failed to recognize it on the right. In fact, what prevented his attempt was: not the absence of snipers on the left, but the presence of snipers on the right. The identikit of the latter is easy to do: they are the ones who want Draghi PdR, the army of Dragons. It is widely accepted that it includes the LegaEuro (the governors, the ministers, Bossi ), the Meloni party, some of Berlusconi's ministers, Toti and his squad, perhaps Renzi, even Gianni Letta .
It seems Berlusconi wants to make a match. So could Salvini, if only so as not to become totally irrelevant within the party and the coalition. On the other hand, it is frankly impossible to identify Draghi as a right-wing candidate: Antonveneta , the letter with Trichet, the Fiscal Compact, Greece, the slaughterhouse of Italian banks, the super Green Pass , the panic of the tampon … they are, for a voter right, pure abomination.
The problem of Berlusconi and Salvini, therefore, becomes being able to attract an overabundant number of votes from the left: only today Crosetto had 114 votes and Giorgetti 20, ie 134 votes for Draghi. So, Salvini and Berlusconi need at least 200. So many that they can't imagine doing it with snipers alone.
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Here the problem arises of the 5 Stars, irremediably divided and which, in the secret of the urn, could express itself for or against Draghi according to wholly momentary and therefore inscrutable convenience. And there is the problem of the Democratic Party, where the fans of Draghi PdR can be counted on the fingers of one hand, because that party has a real candidate in the person of Mattarella. Not only that, the Democratic Party also knows that it has the calendar on its side, a calendar not for nothing written by a dear friend like Fico: one vote a day, to allow the misery of 9 Chiame before the end of the mandate of the PdR in charge that his fans can all together start shouting: hurry up! In short, Salvini and Berlusconi, if they want to elect their own candidate, must convince the Democratic Party that waiting for the IX Call is too risky.
Why risky? Because, in the meantime, someone could get Draghi to go to the vote. As we have seen, the army he has at his disposal is enough to hinder the path of others, but it is not very numerous. What makes him dangerous is a weapon he has at his disposal, the Great Berta of blackmail: not making himself available for a re-assignment after resigning due to a new PdR other than himself. The reader knows it all too well because, after Giavazzi had anticipated it last May, we talked about it out of all proportion. Draghi repeated it in the press conference at the end of the year: "having said that it takes a large majority – even larger than the current one – for the action of this government to continue: it is conceivable that a majority will split over the election of the PdR and magically come together when it's time to support the government? This is the question we must ask ourselves ”. Indirect words, but they mean: if you don't elect me, the majority will split and I'll leave.
Draghi certainly expected that this threat alone would be enough to put the big voters in line by convincing them to a plebiscite in the first three Chiame (for example, the PdR in the last resort of Carnevale-Maffè is enough ). Clearly this was not the case and ours has introduced a tactical adjustment: it waits for the majority to divide on just one candidate (which the army of Dragons would in any case sabotage), to anticipate (formally or informally) their resignation and make plastically available for the Quirinale only. It would be the day of the adventurer : the friendly press would trigger panic and the army of Dragons would suddenly expand to many other great voters. Whether they will be enough to elect him as PdR, we do not know: Federico Punzi has already shown how the Pd would still be against it and it can be added that we would not even know if all the parties officially declared they wanted to vote for him, only to be submerged by a flood of snipers. . Nonetheless, the new followers would be enough to convince ours to try: he is an adventurer and he plays it all.
After that, if Draghi fails, everyone knows that Mattarella is still available for a re-assignment. So the Democratic Party could also accept the risk and play it all out. But the risk that Draghi does not fail is far from negligible and that party would fall apart. Is the Democratic Party as reckless a player as Draghi? We do not believe.
In short, is it so difficult for Salvini and Berlusconi to convince the Democratic Party that waiting for the IX Call is too risky because, in the meantime, someone could let Draghi get in the vote? We do not believe.
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Once this is done, the terms of an agreement remain to be defined. The Pera-Moratti-Nordio triad follows the Berlusconi pattern, indeed apparently with less chance of success as the three very worthy candidates seem less capable of warming the hearts of the great right-wing voters. The first reserve card is called Casellati, institutionally more than adequate but personally perhaps not. The second reserve card is called Tajani and is formally unassailable: strong pro-European, experience and international contacts, in short, everything that pleases us, not to us but to those who have to vote.
It seems that we thought of proposing them in succession: first perhaps Pera-Moratti-Nordio, then a passage with Casellati, if it goes badly, a choral vote of all the great voters on Tajani. So Minzolini, who does not mention Tajani, speaks of "another candidate" but specifies it would not be Draghi. The problem with such an approach is not that it might not succeed: indeed it might. The problem is that the failure of just one of these candidates, whoever he is the first, would be enough to offer Draghi the opportunity to anticipate his resignation and start the great blackmail.
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What Letta realizes and this is where her “let's lock ourselves in a room with bread and water and remove the key until we find out”; but also the decision of his Fico to continue to vote for only one Call per day. Salvini and Berlusconi are also aware of this and, in fact, today have given up voting for Nordio in III Chiama. Thus, it is easy to identify Draghi PdR's friends in those who insist on wanting to go to the clash with a right-wing candidate anyway… ready to vote against him in the secret of the ballot box.
Of course, we do not know on which candidate Salvini, Berlusconi, Letta and Conte will be able to find an agreement: if Tajani, Casini or who else. The negotiation is complicated by the fact that only one place is apparently up for grabs, which risks reducing the comparison to figures like Sabino Cassese : impromptu proposals, thrown into the debate by those who want to sabotage the negotiation to bring the day of the adventurer closer. .
While extending the negotiation to government posts would make it easier ( Casini to you, the Interior Ministry to me ), but Letta doesn't seem to hear. In reaction, Salvini threatens to ally with the great absentee, Draghi's party, asking him for those government posts that Letta refuses him. Fortunately for the latter, Draghi does not expose himself because he fears a trap … but the former does not know how to profit from it and just stays on Casini and that's it . Worse, Letta is also losing his nerves , see the rowdy tones used today in rejecting the Casellati candidacy. Letta's behavior is so incongruous that one suspects he is working for Draghi in solitude and against his own party. In short, it is strongly hoped that the party of the "big break" (as Minzolini called it) will bring its secretary back to reason and reason would strongly advise to find an agreement: failing that, the Democratic Party will have to vote with the army of Dragons against a right-wing candidate and, soon after, the adventurer's day will actually take place.
On the contrary, in the auspicious event that the parties reach an agreement, whoever the chosen one is, we know that he / she will be welcomed by a mass of discontent: if Tajani discontented on the left, if Casini discontented on the right. Above all, the agreement would be a top agreement, of the secretariats: so, the vote on the candidate would turn into many separate votes of confidence on the secretaries. To vote against, we would find the army of dragons irreconcilable. But also who generically wants badly to Salvini, who wants badly to Conte (and there are many), who wants more bad to Letta than to Draghi (Renzi): people who could be persuaded using the same argument used to convince Letta, the risk Dragons.
But no one goes so far as to suggest that the votes against could be more than votes in favor. Who is for Draghi, like Lorenzo Castellani , limits himself to saying that the right would risk internal "divisions". But we can calmly answer that such divisions already exist, as we well know . On them Draghi built his own army, not the other way around.
In short, the common candidate would win. Perhaps with a narrow majority, at the limit of 506 to 503. But this circumstance would not be decisive, since the vote against would be of mass yes, but of a mass of snipers: not of parties. That is, the governing majority would not have formally split even once. With this denying to Draghi the excuse to immediately exercise his blackmail. And the secretariats of Salvini, Letta, Conte would be safe.
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At that point, Draghi would be in Chigi in sight of the iceberg . He would leave anyway, at the first opportunity. But defeated and dishonored. Freeing Italy from the greatest danger it has run for 77 years now.
Dómine Deus, free nos in Malo.
The post The day of the adventurer is approaching: will Salvini, Letta and Berlusconi be able to avoid it? appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/la-giornata-dellavventuriero-si-avvicina-salvini-letta-e-berlusconi-sapranno-evitarla/ on Thu, 27 Jan 2022 03:53:00 +0000.