The first surrender in the Ukrainian conflict is the German one: Ostpolitik scrapped, in the garbage heritage Merkel
Germany brought back in line with the NATO order. But it took a war. A return to business as usual with Moscow is very difficult, at least as long as Putin is around. Merkel's 16 years in the trash. Berlin basically pledged to do what Trump had asked him to do during the four years of his presidency. Heavy sanctions, but Putin is far from beaten …
While in Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol and other regions of Ukraine we are fighting, we already have a first surrender and it is the German one. A first important battle is won. As we explained a few days ago in Atlantico Quotidiano , not only Kiev is at stake in the Ukrainian conflict, but also Berlin (and Europe) . In fact, if the energy dependence of Germany and other European countries, including Italy, were to prove such that they had to suffer the blackmail of Moscow and take a de facto neutral position, this would mean for the United States losing not only Ukraine, but also Germany and continental Europe with it.
Well, at the moment this scenario, if not completely averted, has at least moved away. Berlin has had to bow to events, to the evidence of the Russian threat (and to the emotion aroused by the Ukrainian resistance), and to deny – at least for the moment – those policies that have brought Germany, but with it Europe, to the abyss of a very dangerous neutrality due to dependence on Russian gas. A risk that over the years on Atlantico Quotidiano we have never tired of reporting.
If today the German "turning point" is hailed as a development that reunites the West, it means that we were right to consider the German question, that of a "pacifist threat" Germany , the great European question and the main source of stress in transatlantic relations. .
Speaking yesterday in the Bundestag, Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismantled in a few minutes the German Ostpolitik (and in particular of his party, the SPD) of the last quarter of a century. The chancellor outlined a new energy policy agenda to reduce the dependence of the main European economy on Russian gas. “We will do more to ensure a secure energy supply for our country; we need to change strategy to overcome our dependence on individual energy suppliers, ”Scholz said, admitting that plans“ to phase out coal-fired power plants by 2030 and to shut down nuclear power plants ”have left Germany“ with few choices ”. And then announced the "rapid" construction of two liquid gas regasification terminals, in Brunsbuettel and Wilhelmshaven, and the increase in the volume of gas in storage facilities by 2 billion cubic meters, to be purchased on world markets in coordination with the European Union.
It is not clear whether the exit from nuclear power should be considered suspended and Scholz did not explicitly mention Nord Stream 2 in yesterday's speech, but in recent days the Chancellor had announced the suspension of the pipeline authorization process, an announcement which followed US sanctions on the company that manages it and its top management. Which, as we observed , makes it difficult for Berlin to unblock it unilaterally, without Washington's consent.
Within hours, the German government also overcame its opposition to delivering defensive weapons to Ukraine and excluding Russian banks from the SWIFT system. On the military front, another unprecedented decision: 100 billion in investments and the exceeding of 2 per cent of GDP in defense spending, as per the commitments made at NATO headquarters, so far not met by Berlin.
In short, in words, the turning point on energy security and defense is there, it is undeniable. Given the moment and the solemnity of the occasion, it will not be easy to reverse. It will be very difficult for the Germans to return to business as usual with Moscow, at least as long as Vladimir Putin is in the Kremlin.
It is the end of an era, a quarter of a century, which coincides with the chancellors of Gerhard Schroeder and Angela Merkel, the scrapping of their Ostpolitik , the termination of those ties with Putin's Russia that Chancellor Merkel in her 16 years of government has stubbornly pledged to weave, now taking advantage of the distraction of the US administrations, now openly challenging their opposition (as with Trump). The newspapers, commentators and "experts" in various capacities who until yesterday celebrated her as the greatest European statesman, and today without the slightest sense of modesty, greet the "historical turning point" of Berlin, should be consistent and recognize the damage that the chancellor has caused to Europe and to transatlantic relations.
To carefully re-read Scholz's announcements of recent days ( Nord Stream 2 ) and yesterday's to the Bundestag (regasifiers, 2 per cent of military spending) are exactly the requests that Donald Trump – like other US administrations, albeit with less sense of urgency – he had advanced to Merkel, obtaining in response the "nein" of the Chancellor and the accusations on both sides of the ocean of wanting to destroy transatlantic relations.
Germany basically pledged to do what Trump during all four years of his presidency had asked him to do. It will hurt many to admit it, but Trump was right, Merkel was wrong. At the time they were all cheerleaders of Merkel just as she stubbornly built Germany's and EU's energy dependence on Russia and opened Europe's doors to penetration by Moscow. Today, one can bet, they will fall from the pear tree. If we look at what is happening in Ukraine today, we realize that it was not only a mistake, but a real folly on the part of the German government to encourage and approve the Nord Stream 2 project after Putin had already implemented his first aggression against Ukraine, annexing Crimea and destabilizing the Donbass, and by the German chancellor to defend it with all her might until the last day.
Trump's reprimand in front of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg is memorable: it is supposed that we should defend Germany from Russia but in the meantime Berlin pays Moscow billions of dollars for its gas by becoming dependent ( here the video ).
Someone will try to argue that the change in Berlin is due to the soft line of the Biden administration. No, it is thanks to an even harsher "line" than Trump's: the war on the doorstep of Europe. Putin's aggression, but also the emotion aroused by the resistance of the Ukrainians and the tenacity of President Zelenski, forced Berlin to surrender. If Kiev had fallen in a few hours, we probably wouldn't be talking about a German "breakthrough", the pressure on Berlin would not have reached the point of failure.
Everyone gave Ukraine up for lost in a few days. US intelligence, which had provided accurate information on the movement of troops and the intentions of the Kremlin upon proof of the facts, expected Russia to take Kiev by this weekend. Putin himself probably thought he was taking it with minimal effort and that by this point Zelenski had already slipped away. For Washington, therefore, it was a question of maximizing the costs for Moscow, economic and political, trying to cut as much as possible the dangerous energy relationship between Europe, in particular Germany, and Russia. The resistance in Kiev has made the West responsible, inducing it to adopt very heavy sanctions, and in particular Berlin, inducing it to turn yesterday.
All of this, however, does not absolve the Biden administration for its mistakes – at least three. From the last in order of time, the exclusion of a direct armed intervention to defend Kiev, which sounded like a green light for Moscow, the disastrous exit from Afghanistan, which proved to Russia and China the will of the US to go out in great haste from areas deemed non-strategic, but above all the choice, made last spring and made official in July, not to sanction Nord Stream 2 , as an opening signal in Berlin, effectively giving the green light to the completion of the pipeline .
With the completion and possible entry into operation of Nord Stream 2 , in fact, Ukraine, crossed by three gas pipelines, became strategic.
When Russia started dropping its gas into Europe in early autumn as a means of pressure to open Nord Stream 2 , while at the same time continuing to amass troops on the Ukrainian border , the danger appeared imminent: by controlling Ukraine, sooner or later Putin would have forced Berlin and the EU to open Nord Stream 2 . With Nord Stream 2 open and Ukrainian gas pipelines under control, it would have the keys to European energy security, to ensure its neutrality. For the United States it would have meant losing Germany and Europe.
Today the certification is suspended and the pipeline is under US sanctions, which make it less easy (but not impossible) to force its opening by interrupting the Ukrainian gas pipelines. But if the question is not yet completely closed, it is also because of that choice by Biden that made it possible to complete the construction. There is a difference, in fact, between a work still to be completed and a ready-made but empty gas pipeline lying unused at the bottom of the sea. Berlin should give it up. Indeed, the pipeline should be made to shine.
Faced with the alternative outlined by Musso in Atlantico Quotidiano , Berlin seems to have chosen "the NATO order" over its transformation into "Great Switzerland", a neutral giant between the West and Russia. Imposing a "state of permanent economic warfare with Russia", explained Musso, the German-led EU order ends in Europe and the Anglo-Saxon-led NATO order returns, as during the Cold War. No longer today's Europe destabilized by the policies of Berlin, but a Europe rearmed and directed by NATO, “peaceful and well functioning”, in Kaplan's words. But this security will come at a price: the severe limitation of trade with Russia, in particular of energy supplies (with the renunciation of Nord Stream 2 ), but also an expansive economic policy, which the Germans have always opposed.
Putin should have understood at this point that he had been dumped from Berlin, on which he was aiming (together with Italy) to divide the West in the response to his aggression. It is the most dangerous time for Kiev (and not only probably…).
The post The first surrender in the Ukrainian conflict is the German one: Ostpolitik scrapped, Merkel's legacy in the trash appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/la-prima-resa-nel-conflitto-ucraino-e-quella-tedesca-ostpolitik-rottamata-nella-spazzatura-eredita-merkel/ on Mon, 28 Feb 2022 03:53:00 +0000.