The race for rare earths: Chinese domination and the Arctic frontier
Geopolitics is a fascinating science for various reasons. First of all, it is one of the few study subjects that concerns various fields of interest linked together by a red thread that is not always evident, but not for this reason it is not impossible to see. We deduce from the name itself how geography and politics intertwine to form a separate subject, something that is always worth keeping an eye on to get a fairly accurate picture of how the world is going and which crucial events could change it. , sometimes in the short space of a few years.
Let's start with the magnet, i.e. the most recent chemical composition of magnets in general. Currently, the role, we can say strategic, of permanent magnets is linked to the relationship between the size of the magnet and its attraction force. The smaller and more powerful the magnet, the more easily it will find application in a variety of electronic devices that characterize the daily life of all of us. The new generation magnets, used since the end of the Eighties, are equipped with an attraction capacity five times greater than the fixed magnets of the past, with the obvious advantage of being able to be installed inside miniaturized devices, such as telephones. cellular, and are formed by a mineral mixture in which neodymium prevails, a chemical substance present in the subsoil belonging to the so-called "rare earths", so defined not so much for the limited availability of these elements in absolute, but for the very low concentration of these substances in quantities where it is economically convenient to extract them due to subsequent extraction and separation techniques, as the rare earths to be used are mixed with many other elements such as halides, carbonates, oxides, phosphates and "waste" silicates.
In addition to neodymium, widely used in computer hard disks , in speakers even of very small size and in new generation electric motors, including those of electric cars, it would be enough to mention the lanthanum, massively used in the optical industry, which allows to realize the modern lenses of all types and sizes. Still on rare earths (made up of 17 chemical elements) the production of modern electric car batteries is largely based, ie on what is defined as the future of the automotive sector ( and this demonstrates the very high cost ). Consider again, to make another practical example, that all the liquid crystal display employing inside them rare earths. It therefore appears, in all its dramatic evidence, that the identification of the deposits and, above all, the extraction of rare earths is a matter of strategic importance for the entire more advanced production sector and greater future prospects. It is not very clear whether the major rare earth deposits are actually in China, the USA and Australia, as it seems, because the site exploration phase itself involves prohibitive techniques and costs, but the fact is that China is the largest producer in the world. world of rare earths, with at least 50 percent of total production.
And here comes the mandarin . As we know, the Chinese are far-sighted and masters in long-term industrial planning and therefore it is not surprising that Deng Xiaoping already sensed the immense commercial potential of rare earths, allowing to reach the impressive volume of 132 thousand tons extracted in the 2019, still growing steadily. If we consider that scandium alone (one of the 17) currently has an official price of about $ 3,500 per kg and that, in addition to the official indicative price list of the US National Minerals Information Center, there are parallel prices that are much less transparent and extremely fluctuating, the business of rare earths is so attractive and profitable that it has far surpassed that linked to gold mining in national interests. Furthermore, the gap that separates China is significant, with its 132 thousand tons extracted in 2019, with the second world producer, America, which follows it with "just" 26 thousand tons extracted in the same year. Third producer is Burma-Myanmar (22 thousand tons) followed in the ranking by Australia with 20 thousand tons, while the very powerful Russia has extracted only 2,700 tons.
The estimate of the available reserves is also very interesting, which sees, here too, China in first place but, this time, there is a novelty: in second place, with an amount presumed equal to half of that of China, Vietnam has risen ( 22 million tons in storage), although the production of the poor Indochinese state is only 900 tons and decreasing, flanked by Brazil, which nevertheless produces something more. In this ranking, it could be said that Russia (with its production of 2,700 tons per year, against huge reserves, equal to 12 million tons in 2019) does not express a high level performance, especially in the comparison between fields not yet exploited and effective production. As for Russia, which has so far imported about 90 percent of its rare earth needs from China, it must be said, however, that a very recent program, called Zašikhinskoje , provides for massive extraction in the new mining site located in Siberia, at borders with Mongolia, whose geological prospects would indicate reserves of niobium and tantalum for over 33 million tons, although so far Putin has preferred to buy rare earths with a trade agreement with China.
The excessive power of China, as for the world steel market, is now absolute and destined to last for many years, with enormous repercussions on the global market, at least for one reason: electronic components in general are increasingly making use of rare earths and the military defense and space research sectors can no longer do without them, if they do not want to take a step back, especially in the miniaturization and versatility of the equipment they employ. There may be infinite theories on the appropriateness of agreements and conventions issued by supranational " regulation " bodies, or on possible tariffs or controlled prices to avoid the Chinese hoarding of so much precious merchandise, but the harsh reality remains, the one we find in crises of the automotive market or in that of industrial mechanization, in which China makes good and bad weather as it pleases. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, not surprisingly also secretary of the largest Communist Party in the world, has the ball in his hand, indeed he keeps his hand firmly on the tap of world technological production, like it or not.
How long can all this happen? Here the polar bear peeps out, with its white fur reminiscent of certain Putin's winter hats. It happened that in the immense and desert Greenland and, apparently, even more so in the freezing Arctic expanses, the geological prospecting that would indicate an enormous quantity of rare earths, all available and immediately, are proving to be reliable. This happens due to the progressive retreat of the ice pack and the melting of huge Arctic glaciers, making extraction relatively easier. It should be added that the almost certain natural creation within a few years of a transpolar maritime passageway would upset the entire trade by ship and would allow drastically shortened navigation times between Asia and the European continent, which would certainly make it more interesting and practical to enlarge the extraction sites. polar. That there are large deposits of rare earths under the polar ice is highly probable, otherwise it would not justify so much sudden interest of the great nations in the North Pole, and certainly the recent repopulation of the American, Russian and other Arctic bases in the world also goes into that direction.
As if the 100 billion barrels of crude oil and 100 million cubic meters of natural gas that lie under the Arctic territory were not enough, the concrete prospect of obtaining enormous quantities of rare earths from the North Pole and its surroundings, the question of exploiting the areas polar (including Antarctica) returns with more force than ever to the world limelight, with an escalation of skirmishes between the military forces deployed in the immense frozen land, mainly between the United States, Russia and Norway, at least for now. Territorial claims in the polar regions, after having experienced a phase of tiredness for decades, due to the limited interest in the concrete exploitation of the resources present there, have recently regained strength in the last decades and it is not hazardous to argue that precisely in these geographical contexts international diplomacy will be concentrated, provided that all this does not lead to real armed clashes for domination over the Arctic, in a game that seemed impossible until a few years ago, involving, albeit to a lesser extent, the Antarctic continent, which nevertheless it is increasingly considered worthy of new military settlements.
Then there is an aspect that is anything but secondary to the question of rare earths: it is absolutely certain that the current techniques to extract them from the compounds in which they are contained and, above all, to separate them from waste material involve the use of very dangerous procedures for the health of extractors and, in the long term, also for the environment. In addition to using hydrochloric acid and nitric acid as a solvent solution, resulting in difficult disposal of the refining mixture, the refining process also involves radioactive and / or highly toxic substances, with the typical criticalities of experimental industrial procedures, which often reserve bitter surprises. after a few decades, when, as happened for the processing of asbestos, the high carcinogenicity of these substances is discovered. It is, in fact, a race against time: fearing that specific new international conventions could restrictively regulate the extraction and processing of rare earths locally or elsewhere, China, the United States and other nations with exclusive access the fields are maximizing extraction volumes and it is feared that they can sometimes do so without too many scruples for the environment. What many environmentalists seem to have not yet understood well is precisely that the violent turn imposed by the green economy towards electricity, wind and, in essence, towards a society increasingly based on the use of semiconductors and superconductors necessarily entails, at least as far as current science indicates, a growing use of rare earths is precisely in those sectors, such as for the materials that make up wind turbines and the batteries connected to them.
We are faced with the paradox of reckless enrichment and the monopoly of some world powers on resources of the utmost necessity to contrast the differences between rich and poor in the world and to guarantee everyone a future which, to use a very fashionable term, would like to be sustainable. Only a couple of years ago it seems that we have begun to talk, albeit with sometimes too ideological connotations, of this subject with multiple geopolitical aspects and it is certainly not the majority of convinced supporters of the green economy who are well aware of how they want to decarbonise the industry, i.e. what the current prospects are, and presumably still valid for at least a couple of decades, and therefore well beyond the limits of the time thresholds imposed by the treaties, because they are increasingly dependent on the growing demand for rare earths, with everything what their extraction and commercialization entails. It seems impossible but it is: the most convinced supporters of the transition to technologies that they consider "clean", such as wind or photovoltaic, do not consider it in the least inconvenient and counterproductive to use rare earths massively, which are only recyclable for less than 1 percent, in a context in which the recyclability of raw materials is indicated as an irrepressible requirement.
You know, the great powers, but some more than others, have always shown a good dose of cynicism in indicating the way forward, the new frontier and how to reach it. For now, the situation is absolutely biased in favor of China, as if the entire world economy did not already see it as an absolute protagonist enough. In this variegated global framework it will be interesting to observe what role Europe will want and be able to play, understood as a set of different states rather than as an institution that has so far shown its influence and authority towards the excessive power of Asia and the Middle East. If the Scandinavian countries and Greenland can have their say, as owners of a large slice of the subsoil containing rare earths, we will see it soon, but I would not be optimistic about their possibility of effectively opposing China, if necessary. China, as usual, started before the others and the investments made by Xi and his predecessors, in the extraction and processing of rare earths, are there for all to see.
Paradoxically, we have set up a dead end alley. We wanted to make the qualitative leap in technological development and miniaturization (small is beautiful but requires a lot of rare earths) and we want more and more clean energies that perhaps will have the final product clean but to obtain this result, risky and strong technologies must be used. environmental impact (the only risk of groundwater pollution seems to be current and the disposal of toxic and harmful processing compounds is still all to be regulated unequivocally), but, in fact, it favors the accumulation of more and more power in the hands of usual ones that already dominate the global economy. Has the proletariat triumphed as Marx, Lenin and Mao predicted? If China could define itself as a proletarian state, and I don't think so at all, we would say yes, since it is increasingly dictating the rules of the world economy. However, we can well say that if the magnet is more necessary than ever, the mandarin still behaves like a mandarin, that is, a rigid applicator of measures imposed on it by the Emperor, and the polar bear is not always as friendly and tender as it seems to be a puppy.
The post The race for rare earths: Chinese rule and the Arctic frontier appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/la-corsa-alle-terre-rare-il-dominio-cinese-e-la-frontiera-dellartico/ on Mon, 29 Nov 2021 03:46:00 +0000.