The US-China “Great Reset”: Xi Jinping warns Biden from continuing on Trump’s path
Xi Jinping did not give a "cold war" speech: he attacked the course of the Trump administration and ordered Biden not to continue on that path, but he proposed a "great reset" of US-China relations, based on multilateralism and coexistence. And, feeling strong (ahead in the recovery of the economy and agreement with the EU), he drew his red lines (non-interference) and used arguments very consonant with those dear to the globalist elites. The Chinese leader supports the return, after the Trump "parenthesis", to that mix of multilateralism and economic globalization that has made China's fortunes. Multilateralism which, however, for the West can turn into a deadly embrace with the Beijing regime
Honey for the ears of Davos' elites and a warning to the Biden administration, which has just taken office. This is the figure of the speech , in videoconference, by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the World Economic Forum . Echoing his 2017 speech, which a few days before the inauguration of President Trump sent the European chancelleries and our own progressives into jujube soup, he warned of a new Cold War and – again – presented himself as the standard bearer of globalization economic. The double message delivered to Washington is that Beijing is ready to de-escalate , to normalize relations, and we will see on what basis, but that otherwise it will certainly not change its course under the pressure of Western criticism.
In setting his stakes for a return to normalcy (primarily non-interference), the Chinese president spoke from a position of strength, which derives from an economy that is further ahead in the recovery (in 2020 China was the largest beneficiary of direct investments); from having in hand an agreement in principle with the European Union on mutual investments, signed shortly before Biden took office; and from the internal divisions of its main rival.
Evidently addressing today's Democratic Washington, but referring to the past four years of Trump presidency, Xi urged them to "abandon ideological prejudice" and a dangerous "Cold War mentality". They don't have to worry about "differences" ("every country is unique in history, culture, and social system" and "no one is better", "there are no two identical leaves"), "what generates alarm is arrogance, prejudice and hatred" . "The confrontation will lead us into a dead end", Xi insisted, listing the policies that the United States must avoid: "building small circles" (the reference is to the alliance of democracies we are talking about), "rejecting, threatening or intimidate others ”,“ impose decoupling or sanctions ”,“ create isolation or alienation ”. "The strong shouldn't bully the weak", "decisions shouldn't be made by flexing your muscles or shaking a big fist." Which, said by the Chinese leader, is quite smiley … However, Xi warned, these policies will fuel divisions and push towards "confrontation". It goes without saying that China will not shirk.
So, here are the two magic words suggested to the Biden administration for the "great reset": the first is multilateralism . It is the architrave of Xi's entire speech, so much so as to give it the title ( "Let the Torch of Multilateralism Light up Humanity's Way Forward" ), and it happens to be on everyone's lips in Washington as Biden's main breaking line with respect to Trump presidency, founded on the hated "unilateralism". A convinced return to multilateralism is in fact also in the intentions of the Biden administration and is preparatory, in the words of the Chinese president, for the second key principle suggested: coexistence .
But on what basis? Obviously, the most congenial ones to Beijing, both from an economic (globalization) and political (non-interference in internal affairs) point of view.
Xi urged to break down trade barriers, to strengthen organizations and fora, primarily the G20, for global economic governance, to "remain faithful to international law and international rules rather than seek supremacy". A clear warning to Biden, with a mocking tinge: don't be a "supremacist" … He promised to "unlock the potential of the huge Chinese market and huge domestic demand". Sweet and inviting melody for the listening economic powers and for the European leaders, who find confirmation of the commitments made by Xi in the recent agreement.
The emphasized centrality, in the Chinese leader's speech, of organizations such as WHO and WTO, of the Paris Agreement and of multilateral fora such as the G20, also suggest the issues on which Beijing sees the possibility of a win-win cooperation with the US: Covid , trade, climate. Where there are political differences, such as on human rights, the situations of Xinjiang and Hong Kong, or the status of Taiwan, the invitation is "not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries". "Antagonism and confrontation, be it in the form of a cold war, hot war, trade war or technological war, would ultimately damage the interests of all countries, the well-being of all."
Xi's speech closes with universalistic tones and the irenic slogan so dear to the leader that for some years seems to have announced the advent of the "Chinese century":
"There is only one Earth and one shared future for humanity… Let's join our hands and let multilateralism light our way to a community with a shared future for humanity."
A multilateralism, however, which for the West can turn into a lethal embrace with the Chinese regime.
The objective of Beijing's leadership in approaching the Biden administration is in fact to restore that inertia in the global order, which before the Trump presidency was guaranteeing China to very quickly reduce the gap with the West – to the detriment of middle classes, manufacturing capabilities and the latter's political-social stability – and to launch its challenge to the US leadership. "Coexistence" means this for Beijing: having the guarantee of being able to continue to profit from the flaws and bugs in the system and that the West, the United States in the first place, will not resist its rise, the inevitability of what is already defined "Chinese century", destined to give humanity a "shared future" but under the banner of the hegemony of the Dragon.
To this end, the stability of supply chains and the status quo in economic globalization – the first undermined by the pandemic, the second by the Trump administration – remain vital interests for Beijing, so much so that Xi urges "not to use the pandemic as a pretext for de-globalization and decoupling “. To dedicate such an explicit passage to it, decoupling must be feared by the Chinese leadership as a concrete threat to its ambitions. And therefore, it is confirmed as a weapon with which the West can still do harm, inflict damage.
The more Beijing manages to return to the status quo before Trump, the more it will be functional to its hegemonic design.
What will be the response of the new US administration?
As Gordon Chang noted, President Biden's first words to Xi Jinping, a few hours after his oath, were a "fond memory", a tone far removed from that used in the election campaign, when he defined him " thug ” , a criminal, not to appear less harsh than his opponent in the eyes of the voters.
"When I was with Xi Jinping – and I was on the Tibetan plateau with him – and he asked me in a private dinner, he and I, and we each had an interpreter, he said, 'Can you define America for me?' , and I said yes and I meant it. I said I can do it in one word: possibilities. We believe anything is possible if we set our mind to it, unlike any other country in the world ".
Translated: anything is possible, even a shared US-China global governance, if only we want it …
Whether or not our interpretation hits the mark, as the South China Morning Post pointed out, “Biden's reference to the Chinese leader in the form of a remembrance, and devoid of negative comments on bilateral conflicts, marks a change of tone after four years of growing tensions between the administration of former President Trump and Beijing ”.
From the first words it seems that Biden wants to reserve for himself, in his relationship with Xi Jinping, the role of "good cop", leaving his collaborators, from the secretary of state down, to play the part of "bad cops".
While sworn in as the 46th president of the United States, the Beijing regime announced individual sanctions against 28 Trump administration officials and their families, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former National Security Advisor John Bolton. – not a Trumpian. There is still no news of countermeasures being studied by the Biden administration, but a spokeswoman for the National Security Council has criticized the Chinese sanctions as "a counterproductive and cynical move".
A few hours earlier, the State Department, still headed by Pompeo, had officially declared that it considered the repression conducted by the People's Republic of China, under the direction and control of the Chinese Communist Party, against Uighurs and others as genocide and crimes against humanity. minorities in Xinjiang. A declaration full of consequences, probably costing Pompeo the Chinese sanctions, which are currently left unanswered.
In Beijing, however, it should not have escaped that in his confirmation hearing in the Senate, the new Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that he shared his predecessor's statement and that he himself would have adopted it ("this would also be my opinion "). Therefore, logically speaking, he too should face the same penalties.
But that's not the only line of continuity with Trump administration policies that Blinken drew during his Senate hearing.
Blinken acknowledged that former President Trump "was right in taking a tougher approach with China." "I don't really agree with the way he approached the issue in several aspects, but the basic principle was the right one and I think it is very useful for our foreign policy," he added.
The new secretary of state also praised the role of the Trump administration in the "Abrahamic Agreements", with which Israel's relations with some important Arab countries were normalized, and in the agreement between Serbia and Kosovo. "I think there are a number of things, from where I sat, that the Trump administration has done beyond our borders that I would applaud."
A recognition that may come as a surprise, if you think about the level of internal confrontation achieved in US politics and the accusations thrown up by the Democrats against the Trump administration for whatever it did. It wasn't really everything to throw away, then. And perhaps, it would require some further re-evaluation and deepening of our so-called "experts", in the last four years intent on acting as an uncritical megaphone to the sirens who tore their clothes from overseas, claiming that it was all wrong and in chaos.
More importantly, for a Clintonian like Blinken, he recognized that previous optimistic strategies towards China were flawed.
“There was a broad consensus that economic liberalization in China would lead to political liberalization – this didn't happen. There is no doubt that China poses to the United States the most significant challenge of any other nation in the world ”.
For one of the Clinton school, who based his opening in Beijing on that causal link, culminating in his entry into the WTO in 2001, a not just admission.
Blinken also said he supported diplomatic and military support for Taiwan, in Beijing's sights, questioned Hong Kong's future as a global financial center, and echoed President Trump in criticizing China for deceiving the world about the origin of the virus, helping to spread the infection. But he said he also saw aspects of cooperation in relations with China, on climate change and other issues of common interest.
So, the question now is: should we expect continuity in the Biden administration's approach to China, and to what extent, with the Trump administration?
It would seem so from Blinken's words, but the answer is more complicated.
First of all, we must consider that the new secretary of state was speaking to the Senate, on the occasion of his confirmation hearing, so it was a question of not offering the Republicans pretexts to slow down and hinder his appointment. As we know, in Congress there is a bipartisan consensus for a tougher approach towards Beijing and Blinken is not a fool, he realizes that in any case the policies of the previous administration also represent an opportunity, a negotiating lever for the new one. If Beijing wants a de-escalation , a reset in its relations with the US, it will have to concede something.
In developing its strategy towards China, the Biden administration will have to take into account two political facts that do not appear to be reversible at the moment. As mentioned, there is a bipartisan consensus in Congress for the hard line. And not only on human rights, but also in trade policy and defense.
A consensus that reflects – and this is the second data – a very strong anti-Chinese sentiment , perhaps a majority in the country, to which President Trump has given full rein and political representation. And therefore it is not destined to return in the coming years.
Therefore, this front cannot be left uncovered by the Biden administration. A simple return to the past with Beijing, as if the Trump presidency had never existed, is unthinkable.
However, it is not certain that this translates into the formalization of a new "Cold War", towards which the previous administration was heading. With the media in favor and full control of the narrative, the contrast could remain limited in the realm of human rights. Every now and then some reports on Uyghurs or Hong Kong will come out and some individual sanctions will come out. Tickling, while in other fields the confrontation could give way to competition and cooperation.
To use Blinken's words: "There are growing antagonistic aspects to the relationship [with China], some certainly competitive and still others cooperative , when it is in our mutual interest."
There are at least three reasons why, beyond intentions, the Biden administration's strategy with China can fail, causing relations to slip into a pre-Trump-like, Beijing-friendly inertia.
First , the fetish of multilateralism, which in the past has often turned out to be an end in itself, not a means, and which the Chinese leadership has shown that it knows how to play to its full advantage, acquiring ever greater influence in international organizations; skillfully moving between the folds and imperfections of rules and agreements; gaining time with a negotiation strategy similar to a "Penelope's canvas".
Second , Europe, and Germany in particular, is the weak link. One of the main declared objectives of the Biden administration is to recover the relationship with the European allies, to form a united front that can negotiate and compete more effectively with China. Great resolution. It is a pity that the Old Continent is hungry for investments and the German economy is too exposed to China.
Biden will ask the EU, and in particular Berlin, to move beyond its mercantile approach to relations with Beijing. But with the CAI this approach has just been reiterated. While the Trump administration was placing the Germans at a crossroads (either us or them), the return to a friendly and patient approach risks convincing them that they can continue to "scrounge" US protection without giving up their strategic projection to the east.
In short, the Chinese can drag on the negotiations for twenty years and in the meantime divide the front, as they have already shown they can.
Third , the global influence of the United States is directly proportional to its economic and military strength. But sadly, the policies of the Democrats are no longer those of Clinton, who came after Reagan. Their economic and social recipes, influenced by identity politics and the ideology of climate change, risk depressing the economy and burdening the federal debt, undermining their leadership from within.
The "pro-Chinese" trait of the Biden administration, willy-nilly the return to the politics of engagement that characterized Obama's first term above all, could therefore remain under the radar, hidden behind a narrative – for internal convenience and media complicity – hostile to Beijing.
But behind it, the Trump administration's approach could be overturned in the face of facts: from the confrontation with coexistence with China (which it is worth remembering, after Kennedy the Democrats had also married the USSR) and, on the contrary, from containment to confrontation with Russia.
The post The US-China “Great Reset”: Xi Jinping warns Biden from continuing on Trump's path appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/il-grande-reset-usa-cina-xi-jinping-diffida-biden-dal-proseguire-sulla-via-di-trump/ on Tue, 26 Jan 2021 05:06:00 +0000.