After the referendum on Sunday, will Venezuela really attack Guyana? Meanwhile, Brazil moves its troops
Latin American media cite Brazilian intelligence agencies as saying Venezuela is preparing to invade Guyana in the coming days, following an intensifying dispute over the oil-rich Essequibo territory.
Reports of alleged preparations for an invasion of Guyana cannot be independently verified and, for the moment, are media rumors attributed to Brazilian intelligence sources.
Essequibo lies between Guyana and Venezuela, both of which claim sovereignty, while Venezuela is planning a referendum on Sunday to determine the territory's future owner. For those who wish to know in depth the whole affair also from a historical point of view, we recommend reading one of our articles from months ago on the issue which, in reality, has centuries-old roots, but recent developments linked to the exploitation of offshore oil fields by part of Guyana.
The more than 61,000 square mile territory is equivalent to two-thirds of Guyana's territory and is also the site of a series of huge offshore oil discoveries by Exxon. These discoveries, the first of which was announced in 2015, have reinvigorated Venezuela's claim to the territory. It is clear, looking at a map, that the area claimed by Brazil almost constitutes an annexation of Guyana.
According to the Associated Press, Sunday's referendum has Essequibo residents fearing what might happen next.
Compounding tensions, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is expected to rule on Friday on Guyana's request for "provisional measures" that could prevent Venezuela from holding Sunday's referendum.
Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro has accused the United States of seeking to appropriate its oil resources over Guyana's offshore oil discoveries and production, claiming Washington intends to militarize the area. In reality, in the past, it was Brazil that threatened intervention to protect Guyana. Meanwhile, Brasilia strengthens its military presence in the north of the country, right on the border with the area that would be affected by the conflict.
Guyana is a poor and not very inhabited country, militarily not comparable with Venezuela, which has received weapons from Russia in abundance and which has one of the most powerful armies in South America. Without external help it could do very little, although training activities with US forces have recently increased.
At stake is the world's most attractive offshore frontier oil field, where Exxon controls the 6.6 million-acre Stabroek block, which has so far seen more than 30 world-class oil discoveries containing more than 11 billion barrels of estimated oil resources. One move that may have disturbed Venezuela, as an OPEC country, was probably Guyana's desire not to apply any quotas and to make the most of its resources, also in the knowledge that oil may not be an attractive resource forever. But this disturbs the largest possessor of resources in South America, Venezuela.
In early November, Exxon started production at its Payara project in the Stabroek Block, which will bring Guyana's crude production to 620,000 barrels of oil per day. Exxon's third FPSO, Prosperity, started ahead of schedule and will add 220,000 bpd, Exxon said. The original deadline for the FPSO was the first half of next year, as new wells come online.
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The article After the referendum on Sunday, will Venezuela really attack Guyana? Meanwhile, Brazil moves troops comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/dopo-il-referendum-i-domenica-il-venezuela-attacchera-veramente-la-guyana-intanto-il-brasile-muove-le-truppe/ on Thu, 30 Nov 2023 14:30:59 +0000.