Armenia Azerbaijan: peace talks have started, but they are not guaranteed to be successful
Armenia and Azerbaijan have said they will move towards normalizing relations and will exchange prisoners captured during recent fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. In reality, the journey is much more complex than it appears at first glance.
The two neighbors are embroiled in a decades-long conflict over the disputed territory.
In a joint statement released Thursday evening, the two countries said they saw a "historic possibility" for a "long-overdue peace" and hoped to sign a peace treaty by the end of the year.
Azerbaijan's lightning military offensive in September ended three decades of ethnic Armenian rule in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, but which was inhabited by ethnic Armenians who now, en masse, they abandoned the area. Almost 120 thousand Armenians were displaced in the space of a few days, in an exodus not seen in Europe for decades.
The two countries announced on Thursday that they would work towards the signing of a comprehensive peace treaty based on mutual respect for territorial integrity. Baku will release 32 Armenian soldiers and Yerevan will release two soldiers, as a "gesture of goodwill".
However, all this does not mean that the path to peace between the two parties is irrevocably open; on the contrary, there are still many obstacles present. In an interview with Euronews, the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Alyiev , has, on the one hand, stated that he does not see any obstacles in the path of peace between the two sides, but, on the other hand, he is asking for mutual recognition of the rights of the Azeri minority in Armenia, which may see a complex implementation. He also stated that any agreement must lead to the end of all Yerevan's claims on all Azerbaijani territory.
Then there is the problem of direct territorial contact between Azerbaijan and Turkey, desired by these two parties, but which however sees Armenia as a weak party in the discussion.
European Council President Charles Michel welcomed the declaration as an “important step forward in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan”. The United States praised “an important confidence-building measure.”
Among other moves, Armenia supported Azerbaijan's bid to host the COP29 climate summit, withdrawing its own bid. Azerbaijan has agreed to support the Armenian candidacy of a regional group associated with the climate talks. Important signs of goodwill, which we hope will actually lead to progress in relations and, finally, to a situation of stability in the Caucasus.
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The article Armenia Azerbaijan: peace talks have started, but they are not guaranteed to be successful comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/armenia-azerbaigian-partiti-i-colloqui-di-pace-ma-non-e-detto-che-abbiano-successo/ on Sat, 09 Dec 2023 09:00:05 +0000.