Azerbaijan: Caucasian cunning will supply Europe with gas … Iranian !!
Bulgaria said it does not care about the Russian gas cut because it has a supply contract with Azerbaijan. Likewise Serbia, which, however, must combine its pipeline system with those coming from Turkey. Even we rely on Caucasian gas. But will this gas be enough? No, currently and the exporting country has to increase its output, even with some cunning.
A short-term option to increase Azerbaijan's exports is under consideration, although the potential increase is small: SGC BP shareholder told Eurasianet that studies are underway on how to "optimize" the SGC pipeline system. to add 1 billion cubic meters / year of capacity.
In order for Azerbaijan to begin meeting the sudden demand, it will be necessary for the various consortia owning Azerbaijan's Caspian fields, as well as the three gas pipelines that together form the GSC, to make the billions of investments needed to both increase production than to increase the capacity of the pipeline.
According to Azerbaijani state oil and gas company SOCAR – a shareholder of all Azerbaijani production fields and the SGC – a decision is expected this year on doubling the export capacity of the westernmost section of the SGC to 20 billion cubic meters / year. Well good, but where to get the extra gas?
BP has long warned that the expansion of production at its Shah Deniz field, which currently produces all of Azerbaijan's gas for exports, would not fill SGC's new capacity.
More significant according to BP are the untapped reserves around the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) oil field, which BP manages and produces the majority of Azerbaijan's oil exports. Under the existing production agreement with Baku, any gas from the field is either fed back to increase oil production or delivered free of charge to SOCAR to supply Azerbaijani consumers. Lucky them. Developing this great oil and gas leader would require large amounts, in the order of a billion dollars and not a short time. What to do ?
There is another option that industry analysts are looking at, one that doesn't require any new infrastructure.
Azerbaijan last December concluded a gas exchange agreement with Turkmenistan. Under this plan, the Central Asian nation has started sending up to 2 billion cubic meters / year of gas to northeastern Iran. Iran sends an equivalent amount from its northwest to Azerbaijan, allowing Baku to meet its growing domestic demand.
The swap agreement could be extended up to 6 billion cubic meters / year and the extra gas has passed through Turkey and Europe, said John Roberts, an energy analyst with the Atlantic Council.
“The current gas transit network in Turkey has around 4-5 billion cubic meters / year of spare capacity, which could be used for the transit of extra gas in Europe,” explained Roberts.
While not a huge volume, this could satisfy demand in some Balkan states. Most importantly, it's technically simple and potentially fast.
In addition to the excess capacity, the Turkish gas network also boasts two separate export pipelines: one to Bulgaria and a higher capacity line to Greece. Unlike the Southern Gas Corridor lines, which are running at full capacity and are due to be expanded, these two have free space.
The result? that in practice Europe would receive Iranian gas passed off as Azerbaijani gas! That is gas from a country under sanctions, just like Russia! In the end it is a cunning and a system for Tehran to circumvent sanctions, but who cares. Evidently now Moscow is a worse enemy, and one can turn a blind eye, or two, to the Ayatollahs …
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The article Azerbaijan: Caucasian cunning will supply Europe with gas… Iranian !! comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/azerbaigian-la-furbizia-caucasica-fornira-leuropa-con-il-gas-iranano/ on Tue, 10 May 2022 12:00:07 +0000.