Because Macron’s energy policy is demagogic and unrealistic
Macron's government has finally made known how it intends to transition to a completely green energy mix and the French newspaper Les Echos has made the plan public.
On ValeursActuelles Philippe Herline did a good analysis.
The stated goal is to be almost totally free of fossil fuels by 2050. Currently, 58% of total energy consumption in France comes from oil (37%) and gas (21%). When you consider how long it will take to create new sources of energy production and adapt the transmission network to them, this goal is unrealistic.
There is a problem: this plan is technically impossible because France has peaks in electricity consumption (in winter, when people go home at 7pm and when the French go on holiday if they drive electric cars) that renewable sources , which cannot be controlled, cannot provide (on winter evenings there is no sun or wind). Furthermore, France cannot build nuclear power plants for these peaks: it would not make economic sense. Furthermore, a nuclear power plant is not very flexible because the control rods must be raised or lowered, a complex and slow operation, unlike a gas power plant, which is easy to control.
Priority access to the electricity grid for renewable energy is already granted in France at the expense of nuclear power plants, which are forced to become flexible, thus increasing their operating costs. This is absurd, especially for old nuclear reactors. Furthermore, the electricity grid must be strengthened to absorb the shocks that will occur when wind turbines come online, which will cost 100 billion euros over the next ten years, according to the Réseau de transport d'électricité (RTE), a figure which will be added to consumers' bills.
Is it possible to reduce French energy consumption by 40-50% by 2050?
This is the other condition posed by Macron's plan to abandon fossil fuels, but it is not publicized by the media and for good reason: it involves halving total energy consumption, going from 1,611 terawatt hours in 2021 to 900 in 2050. However, energy consumption has remained stable in France for more than 30 years, so how can it be reduced? By better insulating homes with energy performance diagnoses (EPDs)? Decarbonizing the industry (while advocating the need to reindustrialize it)? “Sobriety”, a concept that is very close to that of “misery”? If it's about fighting waste, great, but if it's about tackling shortages, we've fallen to the level of emerging countries with recurring power outages. Loïc Le Floch-Prigent reminds us that we need “abundant, cheap and sovereign energy, otherwise civilization will collapse”. “Civilization,” he says, not just the economy, is a vital issue.
How can we free France from its dependence on fossil fuels?
Should France completely abandon fossil fuels? Electrifying everything is utopian and the widespread use of electric cars is proving impossible both materially (lack of minerals or explosion in their price, lack of electricity during the most important departures, etc.) and economically (subsidization of the purchase of vehicles and installation of charging points throughout the country). Furthermore, how can France achieve this “transition” with a dysfunctional European electricity market that indexes the price of electricity to the last gas-fired power plant to come into operation, an aberration for us but a question of survival for a Germany that does it depend on renewables? There cannot be a market for electricity that cannot be stored at guaranteed prices (for wind and nuclear energy). When energy is storable and at a free price (oil, gas), the market can work, but Europe is doing the opposite.
A problem of dependence on foreign countries
Even if we succeeded, France and Europe would become dependent on a small number of countries: China (90% of rare metals), the Democratic Republic of Congo (60% of cobalt production and reserves), a country dependent on China … Today lithium is produced mainly in three South American countries, although new reserves are discovered in California. As regards oil and gas, both natural and liquefied (LNG), European countries benefit from numerous suppliers spread across the planet; with the complete electrification of our economy, this number would be limited to a few, including the Chinese giant, which alone is worse than a rare metals OPEC! It would be suicide.
The production of all renewable energies will have to be increased massively. What are the expected results?
This approach is wrong. The 18 French nuclear power plants occupy 18 square kilometers. To replace one with wind turbines requires 1,000 square kilometers, and that's intermittent electricity. And what about the rare metals needed for their operation? Above all, the two things are not complementary. The criteria for good energy are: dense, storable and accessible. This applies to oil, coal, gas and nuclear energy, but not to wind and solar energy.
In contrast, France has had a contradictory policy towards nuclear energy, even considering phasing it out under socialist governments. The result is that the plants are now old and the innovation has passed to Korea, China, Russia and the United States. France could reverse course, but only by investing heavily in plants and human capital.
At this time, France and Europe have become dependent on liquefied natural gas from the United States or North Sea natural gas. Dependence on Russia was replaced by American dependence. So why not exploit France's shale gas resources and contribute to the exploitation of Europe's Mediterranean energy resources? This great question is at the basis of the fragility of France and Europe, which do not have the courage to face their own contradictions and are victims of failed energy policies.
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The article Why Macron's energy policy is demagogic and unrealistic comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/perche-la-politica-energetica-di-macron-e-demagogica-e-irrealistica/ on Thu, 11 Jan 2024 12:25:27 +0000.