Bitter tulips: third quarter of recession for the Netherlands
Bad news from the Netherlands, which sees a repeated negative result in its economic growth, which should worry a country that, so far, has focused on the energy transition, but has punished some traditional sectors such as agriculture and the exploitation of important energy resources natural gas on land and in the North Sea.
Dutch gross domestic product contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2023, following an upwardly revised 0.4% decline in the three months to June and marking the third consecutive quarter of economic recession .
Fixed investments decreased by 1.8% (vs. +0.3% in the second quarter) due to lower investments in means of transport, machinery and construction, a sector which was booming in recent years.
Meanwhile, private consumption remained unchanged, compared to -1.7% in the previous quarter, so it remained low, and public spending increased at a more contained pace, with +0.6% compared to 0, 8% previous. Net external demand contributed positively to GDP, with exports decreasing by 1.6% (against -1.2%) and imports by 2.3% (against -0.3%), this consistently with a recessionary framework that sees a decline in imports linked to a decline in domestic consumption.
Here is the relevant graph
This is how the construction sector's contribution to the Dutch GDP has fallen. The values, in this case, are absolute.
The Netherlands would therefore need a good expansionary policy, with an increase in public spending, which instead is contracting, and in credit, which in any case was very high. Instead, we are taking the opposite path, and fears are leading to a sharp cut in household debt which, obviously, is weighing on consumption and growth, like a sort of self-fulfilling curse. But what can we say: if the Dutch are happy, so are we.
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The article Bitter tulips: third quarter of recession for the Netherlands comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/tulipani-amari-terzo-tremestre-di-recessione-per-i-paesi-bassi/ on Tue, 14 Nov 2023 15:08:23 +0000.