BundesBank: dry cut on Russian gas will cost Germany 180 billion GDP
An immediate and dry EU freeze on gas imports from Russia would cost Germany 180 billion euros as a drop in GDP, the German central bank, the BundesBank, warned.
The BuBa in its latest monthly bulletin, released on Friday, said a Russian gas embargo would dent gross domestic product by 5% in 2022, triggering a rise in energy prices and one of the deepest recessions in decades. German GDP in 2021 amounted to over € 3,500 billion.
The central bank's estimate is much more negative than that of academic economists. For example, some economists had spoken of a decline of less than 1%. However, these are forecasts made by economists and econometrists, often scholars who have never left the academy and have seen an industrial reality with their own eyes. So these are theoretical calculations: how many are ready to see if they are real or not on their own skin?
The block on coal imports will start in August, but this is a product that can be substituted with other suppliers, which travels by ship, while the gas relies on gas pipelines, and it is not that they can be extended to another state …
The industry takes a much more dramatic view of the energy problem: Industry executives have warned that the impact would be more severe. BASF CEO Martin Brudermüller said a sudden shutdown of Russian gas deliveries could destroy Germany's "entire economy" and could trigger the worst economic crisis since 1945. Consumers take an extremely negative view, with the index of their mood at the lowest since Covid.
German politics, on the other hand, is going into Tilt, also on this issue, with the Greens who would be in favor of extending the sanctions and Scholz's SPD who is instead against. In addition, the SPD is under attack for the issue of weapons, but in this case it is another problem, discounted, which we will talk about
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The BundesBank article: the dry cut on Russian gas will cost Germany 180 billion GDP comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/bundesbank-il-taglio-secco-al-gas-russo-costera-i-180-miliardi-di-pil-alla-germania/ on Sat, 23 Apr 2022 10:00:10 +0000.