China: economic morale above expectations, growth of 5% in 2023 and even real estate…
After a very gray batch of positive data for China. The NBS official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.1 in January 2023 from 47.0 in the previous month, indicating the first expansion in the sector since September last year and beating the market consensus of 49.8, against a backdrop of conclusion of the zero-Covid policy . New orders rebounded, registering the first increase in 7 months (50.9 vs. 43.9 in December), while export sales fell at a slower pace (46.1 vs. 44.2), while the production suffered a minor contraction (49.8 against 44.6). In addition, purchasing activity grew for the first time in 4 months, with the fastest pace of increase in 7 months (50.4 vs 44.9); while the decline in employment slowed considerably (47.7 vs. 44.8). At the same time, delivery times lengthened to the least extent in 4 months (47.6 vs 40.1). On the price front, the costs of production factors increased for the fifth consecutive month and at a more sustained pace (52.2 vs 51.6), while the decline in production costs continued for the ninth consecutive month and the decline was more marked than the previous month (48.7 vs 49.0). Finally, sentiment improved, reaching a 10-month high. Here is the related graph
This is not the good news for Beijing: the International Monetary Fund has updated its forecast for China's gross domestic product (GDP) for 2023 to 5.2%, thanks to the full reopening of the country, and it is expected that such growth will have significant implications as the broader global economy is expected to slow due to inflation and the continued impact of the war in Ukraine.
According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update, released on Tuesday, the United States and India are expected to record slowing annualized economic growth rates to 1.4 and 6.1%, respectively, compared to growth rates in the 2 and 6.8% last year.
The world's second-largest economy fell short of expectations last year, growing by just 3%. For the first time in more than 40 years, China's GDP has fallen short of the global average, which was around 3.4% for 2022, according to the IMF.
The real estate sector also seems to be picking up again, or at least limiting the damage. The major real estate group Kasia has announced that it will finally resume listing on the Hong Kong stock market, after managing to complete the comprehensive audit of its balance sheet. The group's title has been suspended for over a year precisely due to the lack of certification of the 2021 balance sheet. In the end, the group managed to clarify its financial position and will be able to resume discussions, even if it is not clear at what level.
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The article China: economic morale above expectations, growth of 5% in 2023 and even real estate… comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/cina-mora-ilndustriale-sopra-le-attese-crescita-al-5-nel-2023-e-perfino-limmobiliare/ on Tue, 31 Jan 2023 09:00:58 +0000.