China: exports and imports fall, but less than expected. Is the crisis easing?
Exports from China fell 8.8% year on year to $284.87 billion in August 2023, after a 14.5% plunge in July and better than forecasts of a 9.2% drop.
This was the fourth consecutive month of declining exports amid weakening global demand. Among major trading partners, exports to the US decreased by 9.53% year on year, while exports to ASEAN, China's largest trading partner, and the EU decreased by 13% respectively. .25% and 19.58%. Those towards the EU indicate a deep economic crisis of the European Union,
Rare earth exports in July rose 30% year-over-year to 4,775 mt, helped by a weakening yuan against the US dollar and growing appetite from overseas buyers. This despite the restrictions placed by the Chinese authorities.
In the first eight months of the year, exports fell by 5.6% compared to the same period in 2022, standing at $2.22 trillion.
Here is the export graph
Imports have also dropped . Imports into China fell 7.3% year on year to $216.51 billion in August 2023, easing from a 12.4% plunge a month earlier and marking the seventh decline so far this year.
The latest gain came from market estimates of a 9.0% drop, in the context of a series of measures by Beijing to stimulate domestic demand. Purchases of raw copper decreased by 4.99% year-on-year, as did steel products (-29.09%). Furthermore, meat imports decreased by 4.55%.
Conversely, purchases of crude oil (30.86%), refined products (86.77%), natural gas (22.71%), copper ore and concentrate (18.81%), coal (50 .48%) and iron ore (10.61%). At the same time, purchases of soybeans (30.54%), edible oil (92.15%) and rubber (9.46%) increased.
Imports decreased from Japan (-16.9%), South Korea (-21.9%), Taiwan (-7.4%), EU (-5.7%), United States (-7.9 %), Australia (-0.8%) and ASEAN countries (-6.1%).
It is interesting that energy imports, coal and oil are increasing, and those of raw materials such as steel and copper are decreasing. Are energy intensive productions increasing, or is there a problem with electricity generation in hydroelectric?
Anyway, here's the graph
The trade surplus fell slightly as a result of these movements.
What conclusions can we draw? The crisis continues, but it is easing. Next month we could have even better import-export data, but in any case exports indicate that the global crisis is still alive, very much alive, and is found in the West. Europe doesn't work as an economy, and it also drags China along, where, in any case, a way towards improvement is being sought.
China is sick, but we are the virus.
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The article China: exports and imports down, but less than expected. Is the crisis easing? comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/cina-calano-export-e-import-ma-meno-delle-attese-la-crisi-si-sta-alleviando/ on Thu, 07 Sep 2023 06:32:30 +0000.