China is growing, although not yet according to objectives
China is slowly taking a path out of the growth crisis, although not helped by global economic trends. Despite this, both GDP and sales are starting to grow again, although not impressively
China's economy grew 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, beating market forecasts of 4.4% and raising hopes of reaching the official annual target of around 5% this year, as Beijing-backed stimulus offset the impact of a prolonged housing crisis and weak trade.
The country's GDP grew 6.3% in the second quarter, comparing low to last year, when Shanghai and other major cities were still under strict lockdowns.
In September alone, retail sales increased the most in 4 months, for the ninth consecutive month; and industrial production growth remained at its highest level since April. Meanwhile, the analyzed unemployment rate fell to 5% over 22 months, while fixed investment continued to grow in the first 9 months of 2023.
Previously released data showed that exports fell at a slower pace, partly due to a peak shipping season for Christmas products. Considering the first 9 months of the year, the economy grew by 5.2%.
Last year, GDP rose 3%, missing the official target by about 5.5%.
Here is the relevant chart, first short term
So in the medium to long term
Domestic consumption was driving the growth, in a less than brilliant international situation.
Retail sales in China rose 5.5% year-over-year in September 2023, accelerating from a 4.6% increase in the previous month and beating market estimates of 4.9% .
It was the biggest increase in the pace of trade since May, supported mainly by faster increases in sales of clothes, shoes, hats and textiles (9.9% versus 4.5% in August), gold, silver and jewelery (7 .7% versus 7.2%), petroleum products (8.9% versus 6.0%), automobiles (2.8% versus 1.1%), grains, oil and food (8.3% versus 4.0%), 5%), tobacco and alcohol (23.1% versus 4.3%).
Meanwhile, sales continued to increase in furniture (0.5% vs. 4.8%), communications equipment (0.4% vs. 8.5%), cosmetics (1.6% vs. 9.7%) and personal care (0.7% versus 1.5%).
Furthermore, sales fell less for household appliances (-2.2% versus -2.9%), office supplies (-2.3% versus -8.4%) and building materials (-8.2 % versus -11.4%). In the first nine months of the year, retail trade increased by 6.8%
Here is the relevant graph
If China grows, even if still not optimally, it is for its own internal market, certainly not for import exports. The internal market, also thanks to state stimuli, is nevertheless pulling and allows us to reach a decent level of growth, even if not yet at the levels expected by the PCC.
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The article China is growing, even if not yet according to objectives comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-cina-cresce-anche-se-non-ancora-non-secondo-gli-obiettivi/ on Wed, 18 Oct 2023 10:00:27 +0000.