China solves the problem of youth unemployment: it no longer provides data
Beijing's decision to halt the monthly release of youth unemployment data has sparked concerns over data transparency and economic implications, as such key figures are vital for economists and investors to accurately assess the state of China's economic slowdown. Unfortunately, the data had recently seen a real record in the percentage of unemployed among young people.
More than one in five people aged 16 to 24 in China were unemployed and this figure was already reached in April. Then the rate increased further, until the authorities decided not to release it starting in July.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was due to release the July figure on Tuesday along with other economic data that highlighted a broad-based weakening of China's economy, but NBS spokesman Fu Linghui said it was time for statistics from the workforce survey are “further improved and optimised,” with continuous improvements needed as the economy and society are constantly developing and evolving. A nice way of saying that you won't know the data until it's better.
The market was expecting unemployment to rise in July
Unemployment data for the Chinese age group 25-59 was also withheld on Tuesday. However, Beijing said China's job market was "stable overall," citing an urban unemployment rate of 5.3% seen in July, which is below the government's control target of 5.5%.
“The market had already forecast a rise in youth unemployment in July. So, it would not have been more negative and would not have had a further impact on market sentiment if the NBS had continued to release the data,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered Bank.
But now, Ding said, the shutdown will be "counterproductive" and "affect data transparency and also create more concerns from an expectation management perspective."
China began publishing age breakdowns of unemployment data in 2018, and since then the unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group, which mainly covers high school and high school graduates, has been closely monitored, given its potential impact on the nation's economy and society stability.
The authorities have long claimed that their survey method is scientific and those who are not looking for work or are considered unable to work, including university students, are excluded from unemployment statistics. So the values were already largely softened. Now it has been decided to eliminate them for a while, completely.
The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group reached a new high of 21.3% in June, up from 20.8% in May, and was expected to rise further in July and August, with a record 11.58 million college students graduating this year.
In reality these are not the only data missing from the set provided by the Chinese statistical authorities. Another figure, the value of land transactions, has quietly disappeared, and this too comes to indicate the concern of a key sector, real estate.
However, now the problem of youth unemployment has been solved in China. Its percentage is optimal, so nobody knows it. It will become known again when it improves or when statisticians have manipulated its basis enough to make it acceptable.
After all "There are lies, dirty lies, and statistics" (Mark Twain)
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The article China solves the problem of youth unemployment: it no longer provides data comes from Scenari Economics .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-cina-risolve-il-problema-della-disoccupazione-giovanile-non-fornisce-piu-i-dati/ on Wed, 16 Aug 2023 07:00:17 +0000.