COVID-19: will we break through the Piave after Caporetto? (Of Skeptical Chemist)

While everyone was putting wings and haloes to doctors and nurses, here we were talking about Caporetto of Italian healthcare (here https://ilchimicoscettico.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-la-caporetto-della-sanita.html and here https : //ilchimicoscettico.blogspot.com/2020/05/la-caporetto-della-sanita-italiana-ii.html ).
Between June and July an illusory line of the Piave was celebrated on which the virus had been stopped, but now we see that it was only General Estate who had done his job (in the face of those who laughed at the seasonality).
But there was no Diaz, no consolidation of the defenses. A futile sigh of relief, but not in citizenship, but in some regional health administrations.
Paradoxically, Liguria risks the replication of spring, and Piedmont as well, while the Val D'Aosta is quiet. In the rest of the north, the situation is apparently under control in Emilia Romagna, Lombardy, Friuli and Trentino, in the slightly less peaceful Veneto.
At the center, the situation is largely manageable in the Marche, more to keep an eye on in Tuscany and Umbria. In Lazio it seems to have gotten out of hand (two hospital outbreaks). Campania is in trouble. Molise seems to be from another planet, almost COVID free. In Abruzzo it would be as manageable as it was in spring, but small numbers were enough to make the system go haywire. Basilicata online. In Puglia things start to go badly, in Calabria so-so, in Sicily much worse.
Then: evidently in most regions (excluding Liguria, Lazio, Campania, Sicily, Puglia) the curve is efficiently squashed (at least this one). Practically it seems that the regions made a little worse or much worse are those that suffered less in spring, with the notable exceptions of Piedmont and Liguria (https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bolletino-soruardia -integrated-COVID-19_6-October-2020_appendix.pdf ).
Who has learned their lesson and who has not, would say …
Let me be clear, it's not like March, it's not like April (https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard ). But in some regions it could get even worse than it was then.
Now it is mathematical that there will be endless discussions about the policies in place and those that are thought about.
First consideration: if there is any correlation with back to school (and without a mask in the classroom), well… the school year began in Emilia Romagna as in Lazio.
One would rather think that test & trace works much better in some regions than in others. And the modulation of the measures as well. The road continues to be that, and I subscribe to Paolo Spada's appeal (if you treat and then hold the patient for weeks until the two positive swabs do not come out https://www.facebook.com/pillolediottimismo/posts/185790686494744 ) . An appeal that, apart from the WHO, has some supporting information: "Many patients, however, have persistently positive RT-PCR tests for weeks to months following clinical recovery, and multiple studies now indicate that these generally do not reflect replication- competent virus "(many patients, however, have positive RT-PCR tests for weeks and months after clinical recovery, and many studies indicate that by now this does not reflect viruses capable of replicating) ( https://academic.oup.com/ cid / advance-article / doi / 10.1093 / cid / ciaa1249 / 5896916 ). Regarding the maximum infectivity immediately before the symptoms and their appearance, however, I remember that patient 1, in Codogno, had pneumonia and was infectious, and how.