Eight energy trends for 2024

2024 is full of uncertainties: Russia could defeat Ukraine. We could see a new energy crisis. Unforeseen revolutions and institutional upheavals could arise. However, some innovations and trends could also revolutionize the world of energy. Coin Oilprice let's now analyze some of the most probable or most particular events in the energy sector that could explode in 2024.

• NUCLEAR – Demand for grid-scale reactors from foreign suppliers capable of doing the job at lower costs is increasing, for one simple reason: They're cheaper, period. If you have to go nuclear, why do it more expensively? So by 2024, energy companies will rely on established producers. The market will be dominated by three operators: Rosatom (Russia), KEPCO and associated companies (South Korea) and Westinghouse with the AP 1000 reactor (Canada). There will be no new orders from the United States, at least for another year, unless federal subsidies are increased.
• USE OF FOSSIL FUEL – Globally, the use of fossil fuels, including coal, continues to increase. 2024 is the year oil and gas companies appear to have the upper hand. Gas will increasingly be considered the cleaner (i.e. lower CO2) alternative to coal for power plants, including in the United States. LNG growth is unclear, partly due to storage and supply constraints. One utility company noted that it would take a month to fill storage after just one winter day of unseasonably cold temperatures.
• REGULATIONS – In the United States, regardless of the prevailing party in a state, the prevailing regulatory regime is unlikely to change fundamentally. But in states where political parties are more balanced, like Wisconsin, a change in governor could mean a change in regulatory staff and a drastic change in policy. Power companies that have been allowed to build new fossil fuel generating plants by favorable Republican regulators could be exposed to a large risk of stranded assets from appointees of less sympathetic Democrats with a more climate-oriented agenda. In Europe, however, there will be elections and the change in leadership could lead to some interesting changes at a regulatory level.
• CLIMATE – This is the year in which we will officially abandon climate objectives, because we are increasingly aware of their unattainability. See point 2. Furthermore, one of the two major political parties in the United States claims that climate change is a hoax, aiming to neutralize related administrative agencies. As a popular idea, denial of the worst impacts of climate change will strengthen, not weaken.
• UNDERGROUND RENEWABLES – Two developments change the concept of renewables: developments in geothermal drilling and the confirmation of the presence of commercially viable deposits of renewable hydrogen underground. Digging could also become the mantra of environmentalists. The amount of energy that could be produced would make these developments truly game-changers.
• DIFFUSED NETWORKS AND RESOURCES – Due to bottlenecks and 5+ year queues for network access, along with limited new transmission construction, resource developers focus on distributed resources serving local load. Both renewable sources and SMRs benefit from this.
• HYDROGEN – The world's lightest element replaces small modular reactors (SMRs) as the most hyped idea, but let's get more realistic about its industrial uses. In any case, see point 5, in which case the outcry is more than justified.
• NATIONALIZATION OF UTILITIES — The public votes in favor of the acquisition of private utilities. In the USA certain states, such as Maine, are moving towards this solution. In Europe, EDF is publicly held, but it is possible that we will see greater public intervention in strategic energy companies.

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The article Eight Energy Trends for 2024 comes from Economic Scenarios .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/otto-trend-nellenergia-per-il-2024/ on Wed, 27 Dec 2023 06:30:41 +0000.