Far East: the crises that risk heating up 2024
The first big national security news of 2024 in the Indo-Pacific could arrive just 13 days into the new year: Taiwan's presidential election and the likely victory of the “independence candidate,” which could elicit strong reactions from Beijing.
This is standard practice for China, which considers Taiwan a rebellious province that does not need to take action to become independent from the mainland. China's top official in Taiwan held a meeting in early December to "coordinate" efforts to influence Taiwan's elections, Reuters reported citing Taiwanese intelligence. Chinese officials, as they often have done, are trying to encourage voters to support candidates who want closer ties with Beijing.
The elections, as often happens in this exuberant democracy, are uncertain. Opposition parties are divided and had a public shouting match when they came together to try to present a united front. Polls do not yet clearly indicate one of the four contenders as the likely winner, but current President Tsai Ing-wen's party – the Democratic Progressive Party – is in the lead, although the lead has shrunk significantly in recent months. The DPP supports the idea of Taiwan independence, but in a soft way, without official commitments on the matter.
China may step up overflights, naval maneuvers and rhetoric around the island after the election, but it is unlikely to take large-scale military action or do anything else to destabilize the region. China's economy is stalling – at least – and Xi Jinping seems focused primarily on domestic issues.
For now, Xi Jinpig appears to be doing it the old fashioned way, offering the carrot and waving the stick, says a Taiwan expert at the Asia Society.
“ This carrot-and-stick approach – threatening Taiwan with a military invasion while at the same time enticing it with future opportunities if it chooses unification – is nothing new; this strategy has often been used by Beijing to attract 'Taiwanese compatriots',” wrote Simona Grona.
“As the election approaches, China is likely to work to exacerbate Taiwan's internal political divisions by portraying the DPP as incompetent. We can also expect China to increase its war risk rhetoric if the DPP wins a third consecutive term, to push Taiwanese to vote for the more China-friendly party,” Grona said.
Philippines and China: a lot of trouble
While the election campaign for Taiwan continues, however, the crisis could affect the second Scarborough shoal and other atolls in the South China Sea . China mounted an aggressive and dangerous campaign, swarming hundreds of ships around a relatively small Philippine presence trying to resupply its ship ashore. There have been no injuries so far, but one ship's engines were knocked out by Chinese Coast Guard water cannons and it had to be towed back to port on December 10. Another ship was damaged by the same guns and another Philippine ship was rammed by the Chinese on the same day.
These actions, combined with previous ones, prompted the Philippines to summon the Chinese ambassador. Local and international media have persistently reported that the Philippines may expel the ambassador in reaction to China's actions. This is, obviously, an extreme measure, usually considered a sign of a serious breakdown in relations, if not even a prelude to war. So far that hasn't happened.
Australia's ambassador to the Philippines, HK Yu, tweeted that his government conveyed its "grave concerns" about China's actions. In diplomatic parlance, this is, well, serious.
On December 13, the Philippine ambassador to the United States, Jose Manuel Romualdez, told Nikkei Asia that Chinese actions could “spark a major conflict at any time.” There has long been fear that the United States could be drawn into a war because of its greatest strategic advantage: its allies. The Philippines, of course, is an important ally of the United States. Australia, another US ally, recently sailed with the Philippine Navy to send a message to China.
The Philippines is likely to continue to pressure its friends and neighbors to conduct freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) with them to deter the Chinese.
The question that arises spontaneously is: will the Chinese be dissuaded? Chinese planes and ships have acted increasingly brazenly over the past year, according to U.S. military officials. When the head of the US Pacific Fleet was asked whether the ships' pilots and pilots were acting on their own, Admiral Samuel Paparo told Breaking Defense that they were operating under orders and that they were increasingly dangerous. “I believe they were ordered to be more aggressive and they followed orders,” he said in early November. Paparo's assessment is particularly interesting because he has been named the next head of the Indo-Pacific Command.
Japan and Australia rearm
The other important trend to watch is how Japan and Australia, which have both talked boldly about increasing their defense budgets and strengthening their cooperation with each other and with the United States, actually spend for the defense. Australia , of course, has publicly announced that it will purchase three to five US Virginia-class attack submarines and build its own small fleet of nuclear-powered boats.
The program between the United States, Australia and Great Britain for the design and construction of the boats will be the largest industrial and technological undertaking in the history of the fortunate country. For a country of 25 million inhabitants, huge sums will be needed: an estimated $365 billion will be needed to purchase, build, maintain and operate vessels and manage their radioactive waste.
Australia must expand its Western Australian submarine base to cope with nuclear safety requirements and the much larger crews required by nuclear-powered vessels. It must train sailors, expand shipyards and prepare for the AUKUS commitment. But Australia, instead of increasing defense spending, is cutting A$1.5 billion (US$1 billion) from its defense budget over the next two years, not increasing it.
Now that the US Congress has passed the National Defense Authorization Act 2024, which includes sharing highly classified technology with Australia, 2024 will be the first year that Australia may decide to spend substantially more on AUKUS. However, persistent reports claim that Foreign Minister Penny Wong has opposed a substantial increase in defense spending. Furthermore, while Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Defense Minister Richard Marles have repeatedly addressed the Chinese threat and expressed strong support for the AUKUS commitment, money – the element that makes the strategy real – has not been put into evidence.
Finally, North Korea
The other perennial threat in the Indo-Pacific is North Korea. The United States and South Korea are so concerned that in July they publicly displayed an Ohio-class submarine – USS Kentucky, capable of launching nuclear-tipped missiles – in the first such visit in 40 years. Nuclear-missile submarines rarely come to the surface and even more rarely publicly call at foreign ports. The North's leader, Kim Jong Un, recently claimed to have successfully launched and deployed a spy satellite and continues to violate United Nations resolutions by launching ballistic and other missiles.
Just yesterday, North Korea launched three satellites and, above all, its leader Kim Jong-un stated that he no longer seeks the meeting, but that war is inevitable and that, for this reason, they will tighten ties with Russia and Russia even more closely China. With the difference that Kim is objectively much more unpredictable.
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The articleFar East: the crises that risk heating up 2024 comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/estremo-oriente-le-crisi-che-rischiano-di-scaldare-il-2024-2/ on Sun, 31 Dec 2023 11:24:50 +0000.