France: expected drop in nuclear energy production, energy security at risk
According to Bloomberg's Javier Blas, French firm EDF has lowered its nuclear power generation forecasts for this year to 275-285 terawatt hours.
The change in the power forecast is significant, down from the previous 280-300 TWh, with a drop of about 5% in the expected output, which EDF attributes to strikes on maintenance schedules and prolonged maintenance interruptions to solve problems of stress corrosion. His previous prediction was already a significant overhaul – not to mention the third overhaul – and represented a 30-year low, due in part to a series of backlog maintenance during Covid.
For the next year, EDF has kept the estimate of nuclear power generation at 300-330 TWh. For 2024, EDF aims to produce between 315 and 345 TWh.
Refinitiv analyst Nathalie Gerl called the change in EDF's nuclear prospects "massive". Just a month ago, French grid operator RTE and gas grid operator GRTgaz declared that energy cuts were "unlikely" even in the coldest months. However, their forecasts indicated that energy consumption would need to be reduced during the winter, even if more nuclear power was available. Now we have a further downward revision of nuclear energy output which will either have to be compensated for with greater use of natural gas, or with a cut in consumption, the latter only possible with blackouts.
Gas prices in the European market could be affected by this news, not least because, after an unusually hot October, November and December are expected to be slightly colder, increasing the need for heating for European citizens' homes and businesses. increasing the demand for natural gas.
France also has a problem of supplying nuclear fuel for power plants, which currently comes partly from Russia, just like gas. Paris has expressed its desire to increase its uranium processing capacity, but this is a process that cannot be completed in a very short time. Nuclear power generation accounts for 70% of the electricity mix in France, so the projected drop in nuclear power generation is a big problem.
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The article France: expected drop in nuclear energy production, energy security at risk comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/francia-previsto-calo-nella-produzione-di-energia-nucleare-a-rischio-la-sicurezza-energetica/ on Mon, 07 Nov 2022 10:00:11 +0000.