France, pension crisis: in case of early elections Rassemblement National would have the majority
The political consequences of the Macronian battle for raising the retirement age are starting to make themselves felt and, in the case of early elections for the legislative assembly, could lead to a reversal of the political situation beyond the Alps.
As reported by the Journal de la Dimanche, the Rassemblement National is growing and the majority will be sanctioned in the event of an early legislative vote. This is what emerges from the Ifop/Fiducial survey for JDD and Sud Radio. If these elections were held next Sunday, the Rassemblement, with 26% of the votes, would register a leap of almost 7 points compared to the legislative elections of June 2022, allowing it to equal the Nupes, which stagnates around 26% despite the strong mobilization against the pension reform. The main lesson is that the RN is leading, an unprecedented fact,” said Frédéric Dabi, director general of Ifop. The RN has a respectable electoral base. There is almost no category in which it is very weak, except among top executives, where it gets only 13%”. And the pollster underlines a paradox: the RN gets its best scores "in the categories most hostile to reform even if it hasn't been part of the social movement."
With 22% of the vote, the presidential majority would drop by almost 5 points in the event of early legislative elections, relegating himself to third place behind the RN and Nupes. And this while his candidates got a slight lead in the last legislative elections (26.9%). “There is a loser in this poll, it is the current majority, observes Dabi. If we voted, the sanction would be very clear. The eventuality of a dissolution would constitute a very serious risk, not to mention a suicide”. He estimates that in the event of dissolution, the majority would lose more than 50 seats. Among other things, the macronists lose in all the younger age groups, and retain positions only among the elderly, i.e. those who would not be affected by the pension reform.
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The article France, pension crisis: in case of early elections Rassemblement National would have the majority comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/francia-crisi-delle-pensioni-in-caso-di-elezioni-anticipate-rassemblement-national-avrebbe-la-maggioranza/ on Mon, 27 Mar 2023 07:00:20 +0000.