Gas and Light: chaos on the markets that does not bode well
Today was a hell of a day on the energy markets, a situation that would not be understood if we did not take into account that the markets do not think so much about the “Now”, but about what “Tomorrow” will be. This, according to the markets, looks very bleak.
Let's start with the GAS. Prices have skyrocketed, setting records that surpassed those of November 2021.
The situation is forecast on the shortage of gas, because currently gas is arriving in abundance, perhaps like never before even this winter. Not only from the Ukrainian gas pipelines, but also from the famous Yamal, which passes through Belarus and is refilled with gas, as it hasn't happened since before Christmas.
2-Mar-22: Russia #natgas flows to Europe on 1 Mar highest since 17-Dec, as westwards renoms at Mallnow (Yamal-Europe) move higher to 22mcm. Ukraine again delivers at 109mcm SoP capacity limit. For Wed, Ukraine again noms at full flow, with Velke still set to receive 83mcm. #TTF
– Tom Marzec-Manser (@tmarzecmanser) March 2, 2022
So why did the gas go crazy? It is clear that there are two reasons, one natural and one less:
- the market warns that there is gas today, it may not be there tomorrow, so it covers this very high risk by sending the price skyrocketing. We are in a moment of strong imbalance which, in one way or another, will tend to a new equilibrium in the space of a few weeks. The question is what this new balance will be;
- the "economic war" of the EU passes from the destruction of wealth, which is carried out very efficiently by raising prices. So this is a brutal method of reducing dependence on Russian gas.
Obviously the piece of electricity is going up strongly, with a PUN (Single National Price) and MW / h tomorrow above 390 euros
The government, in the event of a gas emergency, has a plan that first closes the so-called “Voluntary” supplies, of operators who accept the cutting of gas by paying a lower price, therefore to industries in general, then cuts off supplies to families. But don't fear it, because the economic system will already have gone bankrupt.
Unfortunately, in the very short term there is little to do, but the fact that spring is coming and that, in any case, for now, the gas is flowing, saves time. Not much, because in four months we need to rethink an energy policy and, personally, I see very little clarity on the matter….
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The article Gas and Light: chaos on the markets that does not bode well comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/gas-e-luce-caos-sui-mercati-che-non-lascia-presagire-nulla-di-buono/ on Wed, 02 Mar 2022 15:21:05 +0000.