German degrowth: towards a significant cut in oil consumption in Germany in 2024
Germany, the European Union's largest economy, is set to experience a significant drop in oil consumption in 2023, due to shrinking economic output, which reduces demand for industrial fuels, Bloomberg reports, citing an interview of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
With Pakistan alone poised to see a steeper decline globally, Germany is poised to see 90,000 barrels a day of oil consumption wiped out, Bloomberg said, citing IEA oil market analyst Ciaran Healy.
“Demand for petroleum products, which includes biofuels and direct burning of crude oil, will decline more in Germany than in any other OECD country during 2023,” Healy told Bloomberg on Monday, adding: “Globally, we think that only Pakistan will record a more marked annual decline.”
At the same time, German third-quarter GDP fell by 0.1% , while the second quarter was revised to show growth of 0.1%, whereas previous calculations had put it at 0%. Q1 GDP was also revised upwards. Germany's Q4 2022 GDP decreased by 0.4%.
According to Bloomberg, German economic output shrank in the third quarter of this year, with purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) showing continued contraction in the construction and manufacturing sectors.
The IEA forecasts a decline in diesel demand in Germany by around 40,000 barrels per day (a decline of around 4%) for 2023. This shows a sharp decline in commercial transport activity, which would suggest a decline much stronger economy than indicated by official statistics.
More optimistic news came from inflation data on Monday, which showed that inflation in Germany fell in October to its lowest level since August 2021, Reuters reported, citing the country's Federal Statistics Office.
Inflation in Germany for the month of October fell to 3%, while underlying inflation (excluding food and energy) fell to 4.3% in October, from 4.6% in September.
Consumer prices are now more in line with the rest of the European Union.
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The article German degrowth: towards a significant cut in oil consumption in Germany in 2024 comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/decrescita-tedesca-verso-un-taglio-significativo-del-consumo-di-petrolio-in-germania-nel-2024/ on Tue, 31 Oct 2023 11:00:15 +0000.