Germany. collapse of industrial production in March. Disaster is among us
The crisis is walking among us, we are starting to see the results, only Germany is a little faster in distributing the data than Italy. Industrial production in Germany was up 3.9% on a monthly basis in March 2022, the largest decline since the coronavirus crisis began in April 2020 and much worse than the market's forecast of a 1% decline . Many companies are still having problems processing their orders due to disrupted supply chains due to the ongoing pandemic restrictions around the world and the war in Ukraine. The production of investment goods (-6.6%), intermediate (-3.8%) and consumer goods (-1.5%) decreased while construction grew by 1.1%. Compared to a year earlier, industrial production fell by 3.5% ..
Here is the decline seen in a longer perspective, which shows how unique it is, apart from the decline linked to the explosion of Covid-19
Energy prices made themselves felt in the end, with the most energy-intensive productions being stopped because they were no longer economically interesting, to which was added the blocking of exports to Russia, due to sanctions (and we remember how important exports are of auto components, whose destinations are currently closed factories). Among other things, the effect of the crisis on the construction sector has not yet been felt, on which the increase in interest rates decided by the ECB will fall like a boulder, it is now evident, for July.
Don't expect better, indeed probably even worse, data from Italy. Meanwhile, on the one hand, Germany pays much more money to Russia than before, on the other it is trembling because, overnight, Russia could shut off the gas, making the production crisis worse. A colossal, huge disaster that is simmering beneath the surface and hiding from inflation. When the ECB puts the headstone on the German real estate boom as well, then we will see some good ones.
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The article Germany. collapse of industrial production in March. The disaster is among us comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/germania-crollo-della-produzione-industriale-a-marzo-il-disastro-e-fra-noi/ on Fri, 06 May 2022 09:00:02 +0000.