Germany is preparing for a war with Russia by 2025. Here’s how

Will Russia attack Europe, not this year, perhaps, but next winter? Obviously we don't know, but someone seems to take it seriously, even if, in the end, there's not much they can do about it, at least in their own words,

The German newspaper Bild reported an extract from a document from the German Ministry of Defense which reports the guiding points for the evolution towards a direct conflict between Europe and Russia with the direct involvement of Germany.

This scenario is seen as a sort of widening or deepening of the Russian-Ukrainian war and greatly worries the Bundeswehr which knows very well that it is not prepared and, despite the intervening time, does not seem to be doing much, frankly, to prepare.

The confidential, indeed secret, document talks about the possibility and response to an attack that would develop as an enveloping attack on NATO's eastern side.

The scenario sees the development of the political-military confrontation month by month until it reaches its peak in the summer of 2025. The newspaper avoids presenting some points because they remain secret. The whole maneuver is called “Defense Alliance 2025”.

︎ The Bundeswehr's secret scenario “Defense Alliance 2025” begins in February 2024. Russia launches another wave of mobilization and calls up another 200,000 men to the army on the Ukrainian front.
︎ The Kremlin then begins a spring offensive – supported by wavering Western support in the direction of Kiev – which achieves major successes by June 2024 and gradually pushes the Ukrainian army back. This part of the scenario seems likely.

According to the scenario, Russia's attack on the West, at first covert and then increasingly overt, begins in July.
︎ Heavy cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare, especially in the Baltic region, lead to new crises. Russia begins to incite Russian ethnic minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
︎ Clashes break out which, according to the scenario, Russia uses as a pretext to launch the large-scale maneuver “Zapad 2024” with 50,000 soldiers in western Russia and Belarus starting in September.

Riots in the Baltics
Following the pattern already followed at the end of 2021, Russia uses the for a massive deployment of troops on the border with Poland and Lithuania.
︎ According to the secret Bundeswehr document, the situation could escalate: In October 2024, Russia is moving troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad and is further arming its exclave with the propaganda lie of an imminent NATO attack. The Kremlin's secret objective: to conquer the Suwalki Gap, the narrow Polish-Lithuanian corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
︎ According to the scenario, starting from December 2024 there would be an artificially induced “border conflict” and “unrest with numerous deaths” in the area of ​​the Suwalki Gap, the narrow passage connecting Poland and the Baltics.

︎ Just at the time when the United States may be more or less leaderless for a few weeks following the possible removal of Joe Biden from office, Russia is repeating its 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine, but this time on the territory of BORN.

︎ Shortly thereafter, an extraordinary meeting of the United Nations Security Council will be held in which Russia will accuse the West of preparing an attack against Russia, and this will result in the presentation of a sort of international casus belli.
︎ According to the scenario of the exercise, an extraordinary meeting of the NATO Council would be held in January 2025, at which Poland and the Baltic states would signal a growing threat from Russia.
︎ Russia would once again propagandistically reverse the real threat situation and deploy additional troops to the Baltic States and Belarus in March 2025.

The Role of the Bundeswehr
In Belarus alone, the Kremlin reportedly deployed two armored divisions, a mechanized infantry division, and a division headquarters, totaling more than 70,000 soldiers.
︎ In May 2025, according to the Bundeswehr scenario, NATO decides on “credible deterrence measures” to prevent a Russian attack on the Suwalki Gap from the direction of Belarus and Kaliningrad.
︎ On “X day”, according to the secret Bundeswehr document, the NATO commander in chief orders the deployment of 300,000 soldiers on the eastern flank, including 30,000 soldiers for the defense of Russia.

The conclusion is unknown

The scenario ends 30 days after Day X. At that point, more than half a million Western and Russian soldiers, armed to the teeth, will face each other around the Suwalki Rift. Whether Russia will be deterred by the NATO deployment remains an open question in the exercise scenario…

A few weeks ago, German Defense Minister Pistorius spoke of eight years for the defense preparation of the German army. These scenarios should lead to a change in German strategy: in 2022 it was reported that Germany had ammunition for only 2 days of war against Russia and it does not appear that this situation has changed in any way. After all, you don't prepare a war with austerity, as long as you really want to fight it.

Because after 15 years of Merkel and politically correct Social Democracy, there is doubt whether the Germans really want to fight for Scholz.

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The article Germany is preparing for a war with Russia by 2025. Here is how it comes from Economic Scenarios .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-germania-si-prepara-ad-una-guerra-con-la-russia-per-il-2025-ecco-come/ on Mon, 15 Jan 2024 06:15:24 +0000.